Minsk and Moscow, despite the overall allied rhetoric and the finding of de jure in the common economic space again became a hard clinch. Although history knows many examples of protracted conflicts (gas, milk, potash etc war) and their safe junctions, the current situation aggravated in the past weekend to improve Belarus’s tariffs for Russian oil transit, the risk is not so easy to complete.
Photo: Daria Burkina
Gas
In the public space about the gas conflict became known on may 3 when Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Semashko told reporters on the supply of the company “Gazprom transgaz Belarus” claim to the arbitration court of the BelCCI, as he believes that the gas companies paid for the gas, which is produced from 1 January of this year. Russia insists on compliance with the existing contract for the period 2015-2016. Stipulated in the contract, the pricing formula: the price of gas on the Yamal Peninsula plus transit, storage and sale in the local market. Thus the price of gas for Belarus is $ 132 per 1,000 cubic meters. Minsk in connection with the global drop in energy prices called fair price of $ 73 dollars. This, they say, backed by the Addendum at level of the governments of Belarus and Russia. Semashko called the dispute “a finding-out of relations of economic entities”.
But as shown by the continuation of gas history, particularly business entities are generally not in the business. First showdown was at the government level, at the end of summer, it is expected that Alexander Lukashenko. At a polling station September 11, he reported the conversation with Vladimir Putin and said that the gas dispute will be resolved in the coming days. 12 Sep Lukashenko instructed the Prime Minister to finally resolve the issue within two days. Since then, it took 22 days. The conflict during this time was gaining momentum. Belarus’s debt for gas approached $ 300 million.
Oil
The Kremlin, seeing prospects to find common ground with the government of Belarus has decided to use its oil trump card, linking with the gas issue, the reduction of oil supplies to Belarus in the third quarter of 2016 at 2.25 million tons of oil. In Minsk did not agree, advised not to mix natural gas and black gold. The Belarusian authorities can understand. Only loss of oil in June-August (1.6 million tonnes) led to a reduction in industrial production. This reduced the GDP by 0.3%. Approximately $ 150 million.
Photo: Reuters
Then on a proscenium again there was Alexander Lukashenko, who has sharply criticized the prolonged negotiations. On 20 September at the meeting with the State Secretary of the Union state Grigory Rapota he said that he would not tolerate pressure from the Russian Federation, and instructed the government and the presidential Administration to optimize the participation of Belarus in integration projects. “I gave such an order. We are now very carefully assessing our participation, especially in the Eurasian economic Union. If so will proceed — why are we there to keep a bunch of bureaucrats? In my opinion, has about a thousand in the so-called government to the EEC. And what is the result? Why pay money for the Moscow high-class specialists? We are the best there given. We’ll find a job here,” said the head of Belarus.
But these statements are special actions that had no effect. On 23 September a press-the Secretary “Transneft” Igor Dyomin has informed that Russia in the IV quarter will supply to Belarus only 3 million tons of oil. This is 0.5 million less than in the third quarter. For the year, it turns out that Russia will supply 18 million tons instead of the promised 23-24 million tonnes.
Transit
Following this, the Federal mass media of Russia there appeared publications that the Kremlin proposes to consolidate the intergovernmental agreement governing the duty-free oil supplies from Russia for processing at Belarusian oil refineries, commitments to export certain volumes of oil products via Russian ports. Today, more than 90% export of oil products from Belarus goes in the direction of the Baltic and black sea ports of Ukraine. But to supply petroleum products via Russian ports to the West logistics is more expensive, as this lengthens the path. Reorientation is possible provided benefits — discounts from the Railways and guaranteed access to pipeline capacity. This loss of Russia.
The Belarusian authorities are not waiting for the sea weather, decided to act, raising tariffs on transit of Russian oil through the territory of Belarus on the average on 50%. On the territory of Belarus are located North and South branches of the Druzhba pipeline, exports of Russian oil through it in Central and Eastern Europe is about 50 million tons per year, 18-24 million tons per year is Belarus itself. According to the calculations of Kommersant, the payment for the transit of Russian oil through Belarus is about 10 billion Russian rubles per year (nearly 160 million US dollars).
In response Russia threatened court. However, the resolution of the Ministry of Antimonopoly regulation and trade comes into force on 11 October 2016. So Russia has time to maneuver. Experts believe that Belarus has taken a sharp increase in tariffs in anticipation of gas negotiations to be held this week.
Products
On the background of high-profile oil and gas disputes in the shadow of the conflict remains grocery. It has lasted about 1.5 years and is in a sluggish stage. We are talking about the supply of Belarus sanctions of food products to Russia.
6 Aug 2014 Vladimir Putin signed a decree banning the import into Russia of food (dairy products, vegetables, fish, etc.) from EU, USA, Canada, Japan and Australia. This decision was a response to Western sanctions against Russian officials and organizations.
After 9 days of Alexander Lukashenko urged the Belarusian manufacturers “to move“, “use this moment” and “make money“by increasing the supply of products in Russia. And produce they need from depreciating European raw materials, said Lukashenko. However, he noted that it is impossible “to expose internal market” and the need “to coordinate [actions] with the Russians“to avoid recriminations.
Photo: Alexander Found Its
Moscow and Minsk had an agreement that if the product comes from a country and in Belarus it has been processed, this product is considered to be Belarusian. Over time, Russia began to record a growth of deliveries from Belarus of exotic fruits, which in Belarus are growing, and frozen fish and seafood. One of fresh examples — Belarus supplied to Russia in 2015 to 5 times more apples and fungi than grown.
In response Russia has blocked deliveries of Belarus dairy, fish and meat products, revealing there not allowed to eat items. The factories which made such “substandard” products, idled a short time, but they applied the information damage. “When we deliver a quality product at a reasonable price in Russia, we are hitting the pockets of the oligarchs from agriculture in Russia, — said Alexander Lukashenko Grigory Rapota. They put pressure on the government (a connection there, you know as well as I, what), and the government gives the command “FAS” all sorts of officials from the Rosselkhoznadzor and so on. They have three enterprises offered to supply five closed, open five or six then you close it. Is overt pressure”.
The head of the Rosselkhoznadzor Sergey Dankvert in response, said that any blocking of import of products to Russia of the question. According to him, part of the year from 1 January to 18 September — Belarusian suppliers for the major food and some types of agricultural products exceeded the annual totals for 2015. Import of Belarusian “milk” in Russia amounted to 619 thousand tonnes since the beginning of the year (for the whole of last year was only 484 thousand), fish — 46,5 thousand tons compared to 37.5 thousand in 2015. In addition, the head of the Rosselkhoznadzor noted that the actual numbers may be even bigger: not all products pass through the control points (given that the total numbers may be greater than approximately 10%).
The official Minsk has always stated that it did not win, but suffered from the imposition of sanctions between Russia and the European Union. “Yes, we increased the supply of food quantitatively, but in terms of value because of the devaluation of the Russian ruble, this amount fell,” — said foreign Minister of Belarus Vladimir Makei. According to him, Belarus has lost $ 1 billion.
Forecast
Yesterday interviewed Russian scientists and experts in one voice assured that Moscow will go towards the President as it was more than once. After all, Belarus is a stronghold of the Eurasian economic Union, which so despises the Kremlin. A source close to the organs of state administration of Belarus, said TUT.BY that “everything as before is unlikely to be”. “We have to be prepared to ensure that conditions for the supply of energy slightly lower due to objective reasons (the fall in energy prices, the decline in revenues received by Russia, etc.). Belarus already this year suffered losses as a result of the conflict. Support in the form of a credit to Russia will increase the debt burden,” he said. “Yes, the situation vyrlitsa, but the question is — at what price,” he added.
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