The Russian leadership has decided to support the economy of Belarus, said after returning from Sochi to Minsk, President Alexander Lukashenko. The Kremlin, however, such determination is not reported.
Alexander Lukashenko, receiving on Monday the report of the head of the Belarusian foreign Minister Vladimir Makei said that during meetings at the Sochi ski slope with Russian President Putin and Prime Minister Medvedev has managed to reach an agreement on allied support, “Finance and Economics”.
“The Russian President and the Prime Minister not only promised, but took the decision to support, no matter how difficult in Russia, the Belarusian economy”, – said the Belarusian President.
Guesses of experts in Minsk on the possibility and form of such support is the opposite. Some say no wonder the presidents of Belarus and Russia over one and a half hours communicated on 5 February in Sochi closed to the press, showing on camera only polite greetings and remarks about the usefulness of the rest.
Some people say: there are no particular agreements! Because of the decision to help Minsk was not mentioned at the meeting of the Russian government on financial and economic issues, held on 8 February; and Alexander Lukashenko are usually told about the “Union shoulder,” where more specific and detailed.
“In the old days, knocking out the Kremlin has some real benefits, the Belarusian leader was in a hurry to share the joy with his people, calling, for example, the amount of promised credits, energy incentives and more. Same here – only common words, like trying to justify a week-long “ambush”, – says the analyst of “Belarusian news” Alexander Klaskouski.
How much and where to get
For budget execution, calculated from the oil price in 50 dollars for barrel, and payments on previously taken loans to Minsk to live without new foreign borrowing.
Meanwhile, foreign debt of Belarus (12.4 billion dollars) to the beginning of the year amounted to 22.7% of GDP, approaching the threshold of economic security (25%).
Gold and currency reserves, as reported last week, the national Bank of Belarus, after the repayment of external and domestic obligations in foreign currency decreased by 149 million dollars at the beginning of February was 4026,8 million US dollars (equivalent, according to the design scheme of the IMF or 4275,7 million dollars by the national system definitions).
Experts emphasize that almost the same gold reserves was in March 2011 – then in Belarus started a currency crisis and was followed by a precipitous devaluation of the local ruble.
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Image captionБелоруссия gets most of its oil from Russia
In the present tense moment “to seize urgently” Minsk expects the Russian ally (according to the analysts, asks $ 2 billion) and the IMF.
There is a Chinese loan that has been voiced before in 15 billion dollars, but, as reported on Monday, President Lukashenko, is now at 7 billion and not involved by the fault of the Belarusian government.
“We could also Fund many projects,” Alexander Lukashenko said, instructing the government to “spur”.
“Political credit”
Western assistance analyst Alexander klaskovsky believes is almost inevitable: “As a reward for foreign policy maneuvering, the provision of peacekeeping sites in Ukraine, the release of political prisoners and other gestures in terms of domestic policy”.
Minsk asked the IMF for $ 3 billion. “If you go to support Belarus, which we had requested – thank you. Not going means not going,” said President Lukashenko, speaking Monday with the head of the Belarusian foreign Ministry.
But entrusted the negotiations to continue, persistently bringing to the Belarusian Fund of a request not to prevent the implementation of the Minsk conditions on economic reforms, formulated by the IMF.
“We will implement their suggestions, no matter how difficult”, — Lukashenka promised.
Recently, however, the Belarusian President was angry with members of his government talk about the reforms and demanded to manage economy “manually” – otherwise, according to Lukashenko, in a time of crisis to survive.
Counted – to tears
“Moscow is unlikely to help “live” money. And in Russia the crisis. Let at least adequately paid for Belarusian goods, hard currency. Would earn, so as to return the loans”, – says the businessman Vasily Maksymuk, who was busy with deliveries to the neighboring country of agricultural products.
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Image captionПоставки of oil products from Belarus to Russia last year was reduced by half
In connection with the devaluation of the Russian ruble Belarus has received much less scheduled for delivered to Russia in 2015 food.
The same problem faced Belarusian cement producers, has reported that the Minister of architecture and construction Anatoly Black.
“The fall of the has led to the fact that in terms of the dollar price of Belarusian cement on the Russian market are equal to our cost price or even lower”, – said the Minister, noting that the refurbished Belarusian cement plants have to repay foreign currency loans used for modernization.
On 2 February a dramatic statement at the opening ceremony of the exhibition “Electrotech” said the Vice-Premier of Belarus Vladimir Semashko.
“For us today to put petrol in Russia – to work deeply at a loss,” he said, explaining that, according to the agreement on the Eurasian economic Union, Belarus has the right not to supply at a loss, if in Russia the prices below those at which petroleum products can be implemented in Europe.
“Today, the price is really significantly lower, the difference comes to $ 100 per ton,” – said Semashko.
Oil dispute
Deliveries of oil products from Belarus to Russia last year has halved, and the Ministry of energy of the Russian Federation urged the Russian government to apply to the Minsk measures.
The Russian Ministry claims that Moscow may reduce oil supplies to Belarus five times the size in relation to the undelivered volume of gasoline from Belarus.
“Cunning ally” ignoring Russia, but actively selling the oil products to Ukraine, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, Russian commentators and some officials propose to immediately punish.
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Image captionПрезидент Lukashenka, as before, maneuvers between Russia and the West
Analysts in Minsk believe that President Lukashenko had during the Sochi meeting with Russian leaders to try to resolve the flaring conflict.
The Belarusian side insists that if full of petroleum products on the Russian market suddenly have a deficit, an ally can come to help.
That would require the Kremlin?
Discussing what allegedly promised in return for financial and economic preferences may require from Minsk, the Kremlin, Belarusian analysts agree on the paucity of forms of “reckoning”.
“Belarus doesn’t have anything interesting for Russia”, – stated in the online discussions on the portal TUT.by Russian political analyst Kirill Koktysh and his Belarusian counterpart Andrei yeliseyeu.
Buy Russia once attractive Belarusian “giants” doesn’t seem likely.
Political assignment in the form of an unconditional consent for placement in Belarus Russian airbase to Minsk threatens to collapse the carefully constructed design to establish relations with the West.
“The airbase deployment Lukashenko, most likely, will resist to the last even in conditions of severe foreign exchange shortage”, – said analyst Alexander klaskovsky.
The West, however, made it clear that the Russian aviation base – the question, rather, of the image of the Minsk than practical significance for NATO. Russia has a military unit in the Kaliningrad region, the possible establishment of Russia’s military base in Belarus would not change the security situation in the region from the point of view of NATO, said at the end of last year, the US Ambassador at NATO Douglas Lute.
However, in the current geopolitical scenario military-technical cooperation with Moscow – the most sensitive place Lukashenka at present the possible bargaining with the Kremlin.
