The cost of a barrel of oil by 2040 could exceed $ 250. This is stated in the progress report of the Information Department at the Ministry of energy of the USA.
The Department has prepared three scenarios of development of events — positive, negative and realistic — taking into account possible decisions of the Organization of countries-exporters of oil (OPEC), other oil-producing countries and the dynamics of demand for fuel.
In a positive scenario the price of oil by 2040 could rise to $ 252. Negative when a barrel will cost $ 76, with realistic -141 dollar.
While in the US Department of energy anticipate that world energy consumption will grow in 25 years, almost 48 percent, mainly due to the developing economies of Asia, including China and India, which will also be the main consumers of oil.
After a quarter century of oil, according to the forecast of U.S. Department of energy, will provide production of 30 per cent of world energy (now 33 percent). At the same time will increase the use of natural gas. By 2040 its share will reach 26 percent. In 2030, gas will occupy the second place in energy production, surpassing coal. At the fastest rate in the next 25 years will increase the share of renewable energy sources. In total production, their share will grow to 16 percent.
On 11 may, the US Department of energy dramatically increased the forecast of oil prices for this year and next year. In 2016, Brent will average cost $ 41 per barrel, and in 2017-m — 51 a dollar. The increase compared to the previous version of the forecast amounted to five and $ 10, respectively.
Oil prices over the past two years has fallen almost three times. In early 2016, they reached historic lows, dropping 25 dollars per barrel, but in March began to increase gradually. At the moment (11 may, 18:00 GMT) a barrel of Brent is 46,78 dollars.
