For starters, as a “seed” to my subsequent calculations, give two short extracts of my journalistic texts, in which my thoughts of this in the political arena, which is also important for understanding the economy of the oil:
The question of the regulation of world oil prices has always been the Achilles heel of the Western industrial economy. On the one hand, the existing models of Western economies oil and its by-products make up only a small share of the total produced in goods and services, but on the other hand, the demand for oil is not very elastic. The Western way of life, with its “society of consumption” and dependence, road, sea and air transport from fuel prices and even accessibility gives rise to a paradoxical situation where the primary producers have no less weight in the issue of pricing for their goods than their “high tech” customers. Unlike some cocoa, the sellers who have little effect on the price of this product.
https://riafan.ru/562795-putin…
The fossil reserves of oil, obviously, as finite as the reserves of fossil silver. Yes, oil is not a rare metal, it consists of the two most common chemical elements on Earth, carbon and hydrogen. However, in the case of oil, mankind has very different Ghost, whose ominous shadow invisibly affect any projects replacement of “black gold” alternatives. The name of this shade is the energy efficiency of the produced energy.
The problem of the modern technological way is that oil is a source of cheap and affordable energy. First and foremost, energy, mobile, easily transported and distributed used for the purposes of transport, agriculture and raw material extraction — the example of oil and other energy sources. The Bank clerk may talk about “new energy”, sitting at a flickering screen of his laptop (with a matrix of rare India, produced with the help of oil), but the farmer on his tractor or working on the powerful mining quarry dump truck I understand that without the energy of oil converted into gasoline or diesel fuel in their gas tanks, they will do nothing.
http://riafan.ru/560868-trusy-…
And now, as they say in the old joke, “slides”…
In his forecast of the last days of this spring, I expressed a cautious view that we passed the bottom of the world oil prices in late 2015 or early 2016. Talked about this as a long-term dynamics, and a lot of current events that pointed to the fact that the “shale revolution” has failed to ensure stable growth of oil production at a low enough world prices of the end of the last and beginning of this year.
However, beyond the horizon of perception remained a question: how newly discovered sources of new oil adequate even prices in the $ 40-50, which have emerged on the world market in the first half of 2016?
Today the price of oil has confidently stepped over a mark in 50 dollars per barrel, where it remains comfortable for the second week. The day before Vladimir Putin’s statement at the energy summit in Istanbul, in fact, the request for the creation of mega-OPEC with participation of Russia, added oil only a dollar that says more about the fact that its current growth is due to more fundamental factors, rather than speculative expectations.
And on these fundamentals I am a little potopchutsya.
First, here’s the forecast for the next 25 years globally in the energy estimates the us energy Agency EIA
Blue bars — developed countries (or rather, the Organisation for economic cooperation and development, OECD), the red bars, the developing countries outside the OECD.
In their projections EIA divides the world this way — without any EU, NATO or other political and military blocs, simply just recording all the “old” industrial countries in a more or less matching the frame of the OECD and as fair considering all the other countries still on the path of intensive industrialization.
First, the following chart shows that over the period of 40 years the OECD countries still increase energy consumption — though not as much as in the past, but, nevertheless, almost reaching level 300 of quadrillions BTU (British thermal units) per year.
At the household level, where 1 BTU is equal to the thermal energy contained in a normal household match, so the Western world by 2040, the ninth year will annually burn 300 energy quadrillions of such “matches”, increasing his energy consumption by 50% compared to 2000, by year and by about 20% compared with 2016.
Let’s assume that every quadrillion BTU of energy represents a huge megapickle, is a quadrillion times more usual. Then I will not have to each time to insert the abbreviation into the text.
Second, the most radical changes are waiting for energy in the Western world but in developing countries. In 2000-m to year, developing countries were burned EN masse of 5 billion people-only 175 “MegaSpace” — slightly less than one “Golden billion” of the Western world.
By 2012 year, the promo has changed radically — against 225 energy account “MegaSpace” of the West, developing countries have exposed 350 of their.
But then the situation will evolve in one direction only. By 2020 (just 5 years from today!) the developing world will have to burn 400 MegaSpace annually by 2030 — 475 megaspaces, and by 2040-mu — all 525.
Thus, over the 40 years under consideration, the third world will increase its energy consumption is 3 times, though its population is likely to grow not so much, most likely from 5 to 8 billion people. In this case, interestingly, even with this impressive growth of energy consumption from third world remain much more modest energy needs: it is easy to calculate that in 2040, the year 1 billion people in the third world will account for slightly more than 65 MegaSpace, at that time, as 1 billion people in the developed world will use 5 times more energy consuming on 300 matches from the total consumption of 825.
However, even this very modest relative appetite of the third world will lead to the explosive growth of energy consumption in the next 25 years: the expense of the third world total energy consumption by mankind will increase by half in just a quarter century from now.
No doubt, due to which it will be necessary to ensure that such growth is quite modest in per capita against the growing population of the third world, but huge in absolute terms. According to the forecasts of the same EIA, the world to go nowhere in particular: even in 2040, the year, the share of renewable sources will account for no more than 5% of all energy in the world balance (not to be confused with electricity!) and these renewable sources will continue to be considered and geoenergetika, and those same matches, that is — trivial wood, commonly called wood.
The production of primary energy in the world until 2040. Oil and other fluid — blue.
The production of electricity. Here at renewable business better, but also, frankly, not so hot.
Similar calculations, if that exist, and the International energy Agency in Paris (IEA), which is also reasonably believes that coal, natural gas and oil world will not go away and predicts that in 2030, the year in the world 83% of primary energy will be obtained from the resources of mineral “matches.”
By the way, such an impressive growth of primary energy production and, as a consequence, most of those 80-85% of it attributable to coal, oil and natural gas, comes from a very conservative estimate of annual growth of energy consumption. In the forecast of the IEA, it is taken as 1.5% per year, and EIA it is even more modest — only 1.2% per year for the whole world. This is, excuse me, the power of geometric progression.
Like, really apocalyptic picture for consumption (and production!) primary energy and draws fresh BP report. Here given are in billion tonnes of oil equivalent, but the forecast is unchanged:
Again, if we talk in parameters annual growth in the forecast BP we are talking about 1.4% of consumption growth of primary energy per year.
And here again we come to the interesting fact, which I tried to convey to readers in its August review.
If the primary energy consumption will grow at a pace of 1.2-1.5% per year (that is almost essential for a little bit of quiet development, and even basic survival of the existing world model) and according to the same forecasts, oil consumption cannot grow less than 1% per year.
For the current level of absolute consumption of oil and other liquid its surrogates in the world in the area of 95-96 million barrels a day this means that each year it is necessary to introduce new capacity in the area of 950-960 thousand barrels per day. By the way, if you read the article on the link, the previous stats was that oil consumption grew just 1.1 million barrels a day for the previous thirty years.
Finally, to be fair, here is the forecast from ExxonMobil. Guys, utopische at the time, “Exxon Valdez” in Alaska, now stoked for energy saving on all fronts. According to their estimates, by 2040, the ninth year the real consumption of energy in the world will squakenet up bigger than in the EIA forecast (up to 1200 “MegaSpace” per year), but magical led light bulbs and electric cars will save the world, allowing him to consume “only” about 700 MegaSpace in 2040 th year, against 825 in the EIA forecast.
Well, we always recalculate it on the annual growth — and get the forecast for ExxonMobil digit growth of energy consumption at 1% per year. What, in General, fit into the same dynamics 0,9-1,1 million barrels of oil per day, which must be somewhere to find, extract, and to add to the 95-96 million barrels of oil daily produced in the world today. And this, mind you, should be done in 2017, 2018, 2019 and all years up to 2040.
And only under this condition the average Chinese, Indian or African can live just five times worse than the American and European. If he’s allowed to do it — and not upside down the world chessboard, knocking the world into a state of another world 
This is one of the Syrian streets of HOMS. As you can see, the war is very effective in reducing energy consumption. Together with unnecessary and inconvenient by the users. Which, as you know, in the world of 2040, the year will be as much as 8 billion.
So — either-or. All the other options, most likely, already there are some forks of the past.
