The probability of the existence of brothers on reason 18 percent
Aliens, it turns out, is full. It is only necessary to reach them.
American astrophysicist Brian Lucky appreciated the chances that in the observable Universe can be inhabited by advanced extraterrestrial civilizations
Every fifth star warms aliens
Brian the Lucky (Brian Lacki) – astrophysicist from the Institute for advanced study (Institute for Advanced Study) – estimated: the possibility that advanced extraterrestrial civilizations “found” in that part of the Universe accessible to observation, is 18 percent. And generally, if to change within a reasonable range of initial parameters is to combine data about the type of star, distance, data on the mass of the planet and its size, to take into account the diversity of genetic material, the chances to “stumble” somewhere the aliens can vary from 48 per cent to one and a half. That is, to be very high, and low, but not zero.
To his calculations, the Varnish adds the so-called Bayesian inference, a scientific method that takes into account the data obtained, which play both in favor and against certain hypotheses. The scientist believes that the already accumulated evidence enough to believe in the existence of aliens. 18 percent – the average probability of such, I may say, of reality.
Scattered across the Universe at least 10 billion intelligent civilizations
Lucky is not the first took into account brothers in mind. In 1960, the Professor of astronomy and astrophysics, University of California Frank Donald Drake derived a formula, which in its opinion, to determine the number of extraterrestrial civilizations. In the formula, named after the scientist, of seven members: the number formed in the year of stars, the fraction of stars with planets, number of planets or their moons with habitable conditions, the probability of the birth of any life, the probability of turning it into a reasonable, the proportion of planets with advanced beings, the life time of a civilization living on the planet.
Calculations have been performed many times on the Drake equation, given different numbers of brothers in mind: from their complete absence – to 5 thousand. The variation arose from the fact that scientists estimated values of the parameters included in the equation. Based, naturally, on the ideas of his time.
The Drake equation allows to estimate the number of brothers in mind.
Now, much has become clearer – especially with the observations that have been conducted using the space telescope “Kepler” . It turned out that stars in the Universe more than once seemed, like planets, suitable for life.
The latest data about the Universe armed with Adam Frank, Professor of physics and astronomy from the University of Rochester (Adam Frank, professor of physics and astronomy at the University of Rochester) with colleagues from the Department of astronomy and astrobiology at the University of Washington. Scientists again turned to the Drake equation. But first calculated the estimated number of intelligent civilizations, but rather the probability that we are alone in the Universe. And it turned out that this probability is vanishingly small – less than one divided by 10 to the 22nd degree.
And if the probability that we are alone is so small, it is likely that we are not alone, said the researchers. Further calculations showed that the Universe around 10 billion intelligent civilizations. Nothing less. Only in our galaxy – the milky way – several thousand.
In the milky way – the galaxy in which we live, located billions of stars capable of having inhabited planets.
Frank believes that most civilizations appeared long before ours. And has perished. So look for them to have archaeologists – astroarchaeology. But at the same time it is possible that several hundred high-level civilizations in our galaxy is still preserved.
Scientists disappointing: if the speed of moving in space is really limited by the speed of light and no “holes”, connecting a short way distant from each other parts of the galaxy is actually there, it is unlikely that we ever get in contact with brothers in mind. Too far from them – an average, according to Frank, at least 20 thousand light years.
In our galaxy, intelligent civilizations no less than 361
Duncan Forgan (Duncan Forgan) from the Scottish University of Edinburgh (University of Edinburgh in Scotland) has estimated the number of inhabited worlds, but not in the whole Universe, but only in the milky Way. And determined that they are no less than 361.
Duncan created a mathematical model of our galaxy, which, as we know, intelligent life appeared – we are evidence of this. Asked the program, the parameters of which are correlated with current knowledge about the ability of stars to have planets of suitable size and located in the favorable for the origin of life area. And launched three scenarios.
The first scenario assumed that living organisms appear hard, but then grow well. Second – they have difficulty becoming intelligent beings. In a third scenario, life could be transferred from one planet to another, as the very popular hypothesis of its occurrence on Earth.
In the end, despite all the difficulties, the scientist received three positive result. Namely 361 reasonable civilisation for the first the most difficult case, 31 513 for the second. And as much as 37 964 for the third.
By the WAY
We’re gonna hunt them down
China has commissioned a FAST (Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Telescope) is one of the largest radio telescopes in the world. In his field of vision will cover almost 2/3 of the entire sky. FAST is not only very large but also very sensitive. The astronomers who will work on it, do not hide that’ll do a search for signals from extraterrestrial intelligence. Most likely the Chinese telescope will get a part of those 100 million dollars that is going to spend the Russian Internet entrepreneur Yuri Milner in search of signals from aliens. In the framework of the project called Breakthrough Listen (literally – a Breakthrough in listening), he was just going to rent the biggest telescopes.
Chinese new telescope.
Seth Shostak (Seth Shostak), senior astronomer at the SETI Institute (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute) at the Symposium of the NASA innovative advanced technologies (2014 NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) symposium), which was held in 2014 at Stanford University (Stanford University), promised that intelligent life on other planets there are through 24 years. That is, in 2038. In fact, according to him, the radio will “comb” not thousands of star systems, as before, and millions, trying to detect the electromagnetic signal of an extraterrestrial civilization. And definitely will detect.
Now Shostak did not diminish optimism. On the contrary. After all, according to the latest data, obtained with the space telescope NASA Kepler (Kepler), each fifth planet in our galaxy – the milky way – is the so-called habitat. That is, to support life. This is well consistent with the probability calculated by Brian Laki: 20 and 18 percent – almost one and the same.
Or we’ll find them, or they us.
