In the last two years the traditions of another official of the highest echelon for the umpteenth time called on the Russians to hurry up with the purchase of housing, while its cost from day to day has started to grow. But the statistics of real estate agencies shows that if the Russians are buying property now, do it in the majority of cases only with the help of housing loans. Meanwhile, in the last year in the mortgage market, new trends, and not all of them can definitely be interpreted as favorable for buyers.
A bit of good, although good is just not much
A clear trend in the decline in mortgage interest rates emerged in April 2016. Financial institutions, though not much, but gradually began to reduce the annual rate of interest on such loans, regardless of fit the proposal into the framework of the state program, or have its own independent banking product. For example, at the end of March, when it became known about prolongation of the state program of mortgage lending, rates again fell to a level of 12%. In the course of further revision in some financial organizations have products, the annual Commission which exceeds and 10.7%.
Against this background, quite convincingly sounded the words of the head of Sberbank German Gref (he 13 Sep advise our fellow citizens to take a moment to stabilize prices and to improve their living conditions) that the General decline in mortgage rates below 11% per annum could happen in 2017, but directly to the growth in the demand for mortgage products will begin in October-November.
Confirmation of the assumptions the expert was followed just three days after his statement, the Central Bank’s decision to lower the key rate at the level of 10%. Consequently, the main players of the mortgage market have received an additional opportunity to reduce the interest on their loans. And this fact really can be a catalyst for the forecasted consumer demand.
However, the Director of Finance and member of the management Board of VTB24 Alexander melenkin wasnot denying that the decision of the regulator will obviously affect the credit portfolio of the Bank believes that the significant reduction in interest rates did not occur, and therefore, the market reaction will be weak. And in General, in reduction of the mortgage interest, the expert explained, VTB24 will focus on the other players, but Deposit rates will definitely lower. At least for legal entities accurately (0.5 percentage points), and as individuals — it is first necessary to look at the reaction of the market.
Meanwhile, over the past few months, the average size of a mortgage loan has demonstrated a tendency to increase. So, by the end of December last year in the capital region, he hovered around 4.3 million rubles. And by the end of the first six months of this year the bar has been risen more than five-hundred thousand rubles, to 4.9 million.
Some analysts (including the Director of the mortgage centre of the company “MIEL-new Buildings” Tatiana Guseva) tend to explain this fact in a positive way. First, they note, the increase in the loan amount occurs primarily because in the past year it has dramatically decreased due to the fact that incomes are also rolled down and people are not sure in tomorrow, just prefer not to risk and not to mess with large sums. Today, when the new realities become accepted as the usual state of things, and the market there is a manifestation of the stabilizing began, the citizens much easier and quieter to loan higher amounts.
And this trend, say experts, next year will only grow stronger. Only here on which of the two tendencies in question — whether the increase in the size of the loan or confidence in the future and stabilization — did not specify. But something tells me (perhaps one of the last interviews of the now infamous “Levada-center”, dedicated to disturbing ordinary Russians the factors that “keep in mind” is still the first. No wonder that the results testify that the inhabitants continues to excite the most incessant falling incomes and rising prices and unemployment.
The size of the down payment on housing loans also increased gradually. Until January 2016, conditional to the holder of the mortgage must be at the expense of own funds to cover approximately 33% of the selected housing in the primary market. But by September it became clear that borrowers have to be willing to cover out of pocket already 38%.
Once again, the representatives of the real estate brokerage community explain this trend is just a market of primary real estate. During the crisis, says Tatiana Guseva, the implementation was derived significant number of projects in the budget segment. And if last year many of them were at low stages of readiness, and wary of the unstable economic development of the citizens treated them with a certain degree of caution, in the current situation has changed: the interest along with the level of preparedness increased. At the same time as such budget purchase as a whole declined, but actually made by buyer, the amount remains the same.
But, perhaps, from the point of view of the citizen, intending to carry on their shoulders the burden of the mortgage at least a couple of the next five years, during which the economy, and with himself can be anything that is similar to the opportunistic ratio is small consolation.
Another noticeable trend is the Moscow of “primary” reduction in the proportion of Muscovites in the General flow of buyers of apartments in new buildings (39,5% now versus 48% in 2014). In their place come people from the regions. This secondary real estate in Moscow any more does not appeal to them, with “a primary” the situation is different. Just two years ago was only 23% wishing to buy a new home in the city, whereas today the “Hicks” who at the expense of borrowed funds to get hold of the capital the apartment (mostly one bedroom), there are already 31%. But whether this figure will rise further if the situation in the region continues to deteriorate day by day.
