Pointing to Yemen troops, Arab, or rather of the Arabian coalition led by Saudi Arabia, which wants to crush the power of the Shiite rebels-Houthis, supported by Iran and allied armed groups of the former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, did not expect that for a long time bogged down in the Yemeni quagmire.
Moreover, more and more clear becomes the fact that this war is not to win through massive bombing of the Yemeni cities or by conducting land operations, where the backbone enthusiastic forces are mechanized, UAE, KSA and units of the armed forces of Egypt and Sudan, as well as the remnants of the Yemeni army, loyal to Pro-Western and Pro-Saudi “President” of Yemen A. Hadi. The coalition has already lost several hundred killed and over a thousand wounded soldiers that displeases first and foremost in the public opinion of the Emirates and the Saudi Kingdom. In addition, all were convinced that, despite the fabulous incomes from oil export, the army of the CSA are not able to solve the problem of even a limited regional nature. And it weakens the authority of Riyadh in the Arab world, which plummeted after the defeat of the Pro-Saudi armed opposition in Syria.
However Arabian monarchy can no longer just walk away from Yemen, leaving everything to the mercy of fate and realizing that it will be a shameful end to their military adventure. Moreover, a month ago, despite the willingness of the parties to the internal conflict in Yemen to extend the terms of the armistice even in the case of suspension of talks in Kuwait, Riyadh gave the green light for an offensive by coalition forces in TA’izz, which was scheduled to begin in early June of this year It already the third attempt since the intervention in Yemen to break through to the Yemeni capital Sanaa. And still have to keep fighting in the South against local clans and tribes, which formally joined al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula”, and also against various Sunni guerrilla groups in the East and West of South Yemen, not wanting to be ruled by either the Houthis or the coalition, together with A. Hadi. The Saudis have clearly forced the “President” of the country Hadi to agree with the decision to start a new campaign in Taiz, although since March this year he strongly opposed this option, which was actively lobbied by the former Prime Minister of South Yemen H. Attas. According to A. Hadi, and many other figures of his entourage, the “liberation” from Taiz the Houthis would mean the collapse of Yemen to the South and the North.
During this time, that is, over the past 2 months after another attempt to take Taiz, nothing really new has happened, except that the stalled negotiations on vnutriyemenskogo settlement in Kuwait. Although it was clear from the beginning, because the Houthis are not going to lay down their arms and withdraw from their positions in Sana’a, and especially to be incorporated into the new political structure of the country in conditions A. Hadi and the leadership of the Arabian coalition. KSA felt it necessary to force any action. In addition, between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi had disagreements about the future tactics on the Yemeni direction. UAE tired of an unpopular war and apparently found it acceptable, the actual disintegration of the country into North and South, albeit on a de facto federalization. In KSA persistently adhere to the concept of preserving a unitary state. This is the main disagreement within the coalition and only the line on the maximum weakening of influence in Yemen to the local “Muslim Brothers” in the face of the party “Islah” is still a common position in the coalition. Although the recent appointment of Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, half-brother of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, Deputy Minister of defense clearly falls out of the logic of this approach. But it could influence the decision on a new campaign in Taiz.
It is clear that in this third largest city in Yemen, which in its location is a kind of gateway between North and South Yemen, it would be the most optimal from a military point of view to advance on Sana’a, which at the time did former President Abdullah Saleh, when his forces a few days quickly mastered Adenomas, and A. Hadi barely managed to escape from there by motor boat. The Arabian coalition after returning Aden tried to go to TA’izz, but the offensive failed due to the actions of the Houthis on the East and West approaches to the city, and counter-offensive along the red sea coast from Hodeidah to the South. As a result, the coalition was able to hold only the archipelago and some Islands near Bab El-Mandeb Strait. A second KSA for this option not matter due to the extremely negative attitude of uenoyama and tassew to storm the city. Instead, the Saudis have attempted to launch an attack on the capital of Yemen through Maarib and thus push the onset of the tribal Union of Hesed. But that did not happen, and the Saudis returned to tassamo option, even with the risk to cause serious discontent of enouement.
Meanwhile, the situation in the city is very difficult. The militia, among whom are supporters of Islah, Salafis and the local territorial defense forces in control of the city itself. However, the main road supply and a significant portion of the perimeter of the city controlled by supporters of Ali Abdullah Saleh. So I resumed the dropping from aircraft of cargo of weapons and ammunition into the positions of the militia, only this time the military of the UAE, not KSA as the first stage of the defense of the city. Emirates is actively procuring for these purposes, the weapon is of Soviet origin, familiar to Yemenis. Not casually recently Minsk was visited by military delegation of the UAE headed by A. H. al-Kubaisi, which was negotiating the purchase in Belarus of large consignments of firearms, ammunition, systems of anti-tank combat, and even tanks. The lion’s share of this is intended to force the Libyan General H. Haftarot, and the part of the loyal UAE militias in Yemen. And especially in the South and Taiz.
The planning of the attack on Taiz was preceded by a secret visit to Riyadh, the head of the local militia of Hamoud al-Makhlafi that under President A. Saleh was chief tatskogo security apparatus. At that time he was a member of the ruling party General people’s Congress, but after the beginning of the “revolution” moved to the “Islah”. During the reign of Ali Abdullah Saleh, was his confidant in the province and, in particular, oversaw a contraband trade in alcohol, which was organized by the former President, including with use of vehicles of the police and security services. Thanks to the previous post and the big money from alcohol revenues he was able to lead a “popular uprising” in Taiz. After a month’s stay in KSA H. al-Makhlafi along with his family left for Turkey where I bought a very expensive house. Apparently the transaction took place between Riyadh and H. al-Makhlafi with the aim to decapitate the movement of militia, then switch it into the hands of the local Salafis. So if the offensive Arabian coalition on Taiz, will be crowned with success, this key province could fall under the control of the Salafi wing to minimize the influence of the “Muslim Brothers” from “Islah”. But no one can guarantee that this attack will succeed. Position A. Saleh among the local tribes strong, and the local icehouse so just not ready to give up its zone of influence.
In addition, despite all the efforts in the negotiation process vnutriyemenskogo settlement in Kuwait to achieve any positive results failed. Moreover, the parties were not even able at least to fix the positive dynamics. This result was predictable because in negotiations there are two sides — the actual “representatives” of the President of Yemen A. Hadi and Houthi rebels. And this format is inherently flawed because it excludes two very powerful forces — uenoyama and supporters of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh. With the participation of “southerners” is not so simple, given the presence in the South a few so-called “movements” which are linked to different former leaders of the PDRY, including the A. Hadi, who at the time was Deputy Secretary General of the Yemeni socialist party, Ali Nasser Mohammed, and participated with him in the coup attempt. As for Ali Abdullah Saleh, it is part of the former Republican guard are one of the most powerful forces of confrontation in the Arabian coalition and without him are unlikely to do. During the current civil war, he showed miracles cunning and political skill, and even with significant financial resources, which the former President of Yemen managed to transfer from the accounts of banks in the UAE and to gain from the sale of assets in the United States. Thus, he almost completely neutralized the possible negative consequences for yourself in the event of applying the regime of sanctions from Washington. It is noteworthy that when the Arabian coalition unsuccessfully tried to eliminate it, causing air strikes on its numerous palaces and residences, and having demolished virtually to the ground, his native village, he A. Saleh at this time was in the basement of the U.S. Embassy in Sana’a staff, which by that time had already been evacuated. He correctly calculated the Saudi logic: KSA air force would not bomb the us Embassy, even instead of diplomats. The decision of al Saud to keep him out of the negotiations was a fatal mistake. While Riyadh and Washington is somehow considered credible information about what A. A. Saleh and the Houthis were fighting, and the latter now assuming the right to act without regard for the opinion of their main ally.
The whole course of the fighting in Yemen in the process of peace talks yielded no positive dynamics. Combat activity in the areas to the East and South-East of Sana’a has even increased over the past few weeks, as the border with KSA regions. Periodically there are local clashes in Najran. And this despite the fact that security guarantees for its border to Yemen territories Riyadh set as the main tasks for the current round of peace talks. Significantly decreased combat activity of the aviation Arabian coalition after allegations of her cluster bombs. Against this background, the Houthis are trying to expand control over different areas of the country, failing to make significant progress in the North-West provinces of Shabwa and partly to dislodge the Arabian coalition forces from the area Palana. Inhibited widely declared offensive by coalition forces in Taiz. Add to this the aggravation of the situation in the South of the country. There is a part of the units “movement” forces attacked the Arabian coalition in Aden, who were guarding the building of the office of security, which caused dissatisfaction of a significant part of the South Yemeni leaders assignment policy in the power block individuals by direct orders of the United Arab Emirates. Hence also the constant attacks and the assassination of the newly appointed security officers in southern Yemen. The same is happening in the newly “liberated” from the local supporters of “al-Qaeda” Mukalla. There began attacks against military UAE and loyal to Hadi units.
In case of further lack of progress in the talks, the Houthis can take the unilateral steps in the formation of a transitional government. A step in this direction has already been made, when on June 14 for talks with representatives of the government of Yemen, held in Kuwait, the head of the delegation of the Houthis, Mohammed Abdel Salam made a statement saying that they will rejected any UN proposal to resolve the crisis, if not taken into account their requirements. “We have heard from UN officials that they are preparing a document. Our position is that we reject any proposal if it is not considered our demands. Their essence lies in the creation of a joint authority consisting of the head of state institution, the national consensus government and the military Committee, to direct which will be jointly appointed by the people,” he said. So the situation in Yemen is escalating once again with no prospects of a settlement. On the horizon a dead end.
