The assault on Mosul by the international coalition forces led by the US has been delayed. The reason is tactical: the Americans want to isolate the Syrian Raqqa to deprive Iraqi insurgents assistance from Syria. On Tuesday, November 1, reported by “Izvestia” with reference to the headquarters operation “Unwavering commitment”.
As stated in the headquarters, currently in the area of Raqqa are mobile unit of us special forces units special forces of the US Army, which, together with the Kurds destroy effluent from Syrian “capital” of Islamic state militias and supply convoys. “Green berets” not only suggest where the fighters strikes, but also attack them.
Thus the main task is to cut the main road linking Raqqa with the surrounding world, and thereby to take the city during the blockade.
I must say that this tactic is standard for the Pentagon. Holding the trunk of logistics, the American military not only provide a continuous blockade of the city with small forces, but also deprive the troops of the ability to conduct reconnaissance and to promptly detect troops who sooner or later will go to storm Raqqa. In such a scenario developed training offensive during operation “Desert Storm” in 1991 and “Iraqi Freedom” in 2003.
Blockade of Raqqa allows the coalition to focus on Mosul.
“According to our estimates, in Mosul concentrated from three to five thousand militants, in varying degrees of readiness to resist. Around Mosul, Iraqi security forces conduct operations designed to restrict the freedom of movement of the enemy. Until Iraqi forces are preparing to storm Mosul, the coalition continues to inflict strikes on the command posts and funding sources of ISIS. This reduces the ability of the group to throw reinforcements and supply insurgents in Mosul, but also denies them the opportunity to retreat into the territory of Syria”, — is spoken in the official reply of the headquarters of the operation “enduring commitment” to the request of “Izvestia”.
It should be noted that the formula “first, the blockade of Raqqa, then the assault on Mosul” is consistent with the position of U.S. Secretary of defense Ashton Carter. He has previously stated that the coalition intends to launch an operation to liberate Raqqa “a few weeks”. Offensive in Raqqa, according to Carter, will become the second, after the liberation of Mosul, the largest operation the coalition against the “Islamic state”.
However, block Raqqa, according to the Pentagon, you should immediately. Since it is now clear that the assault on Mosul would be very difficult. To verify this, just look what is happening in Aleppo, which area and population is two times less than of Mosul. In fact, it is possible that the Americans will have to endure the Mosul block by block with the help of aviation and artillery, regardless of losses among the civilian population.
In such a situation, the inflow of Mosul militants of Raqqa in fact highly undesirable. On the other hand, blocking this flow situation does not fundamentally change.
Whether coalition to organize a blockade of Raqqa, as this will affect the course of events in Syria?
— The plan of the coalition headed by the USA — to block Raqqa, to take Mosul, and then back to the assault on the Raqqa — it seems quite viable, — said the Deputy Director of the Tauride information-analytical center of RISS Sergey Ermakov. The coalition is reasonable to focus on Mosul since its capture became a political target. To this end, and to postpone the assault impossible. In this sense, the blockade of Raqqa’s capture of Mosul does not replace it.
Another thing — parallel to the preparations for the assault on Mosul to ensure the blockade of Raqqa, and to postpone the question of what to do with Raqqa, indefinitely. His decision, we note, will depend on purely political factors.
“SP”: — How blockade of Raqqa possible and effective?
— In my opinion, a complete blockade of the city it is in any case not talking. This would involve significant resources of the coalition. However, in order to cut the main routes linking Raqqa to Mosul, the current coalition forces should be enough.
“SP”: — in the words of Ashton Carter to be, what to take Mosul in the coming weeks. Is it really so?
— The international coalition enough forces and means. But there remain a number of questions: are the coalition of these tools to use, ready to go to considerable “unintended losses” among the civilian population, as well as losses in their own ranks? While these issues no definitive answers.
“SP”: — If the coalition decides to attack Mosul “in a forehead”, how would it look?
— Such an assault involves serious fire impact by aircraft and missile strikes. Only after that the ground forces of the coalition will squeeze out the insurgents block by block.
And, of course, when the Americans are tasked as the assault on the city, and it should be addressed, come what may, all the talk about humanitarian law fade into the background. Western channels will be running picture of how Russian-Syrian coalition that does not in Aleppo. It is our mistakes of the Western media will be discussed, while Mosul is under fire to turn into ruins.
However, in my opinion, USA is still hope to attack Mosul head-on is not necessary, and militants will be able to bargain.
“SP”: — what is the meaning of this bargain?
— The States are already offering the militants to leave the city provided corridors, but not to go to Raqqa, and further in the direction of Aleppo. The “Islamic state” this gives you the opportunity to get a breather and to postpone a General battle. USA — the opportunity to declare victory and the capture of Mosul.
In addition, it is necessary to understand that sending fighters from Mosul to areas where fighting the Russian-Syrian coalition, the US gets the possibility of additional maneuver. They can convince radical militants to change the names of their organizations, and in this way to “reformat” the legal representatives of the armed Syrian opposition. This opposition, recall, stands against the regime of Bashar al-Assadenjoys the support of the United States, and from the point of view of the West is a party to the talks on Syria.
Of course, Mosul and in this case, leave all the fighters. Some of the most radical left to defend the city, and will be destroyed during the assault. But, of course, the assault in this case will be greatly facilitated.
“SP”: — Russian aerospace forces and the Syrian air force is not applied on Aleppo strikes 18 Oct. We keep a pause, while the international coalition led by the United States in front of increasing activity. Why do we do that?
— I will Express a purely personal point of view. The US and its allies have overwhelming superiority in forces and means, compared with the Russian group in Syria. This explains the sharp intensification of the Western coalition, especially given our efforts to take Aleppo.
But a quick assault on Aleppo we have, unfortunately, failed. So now we are apparently waiting for reinforcements. The aircraft carrier “Admiral Kuznetsov” heavy missile cruiser “Peter the Great” and six other Russian warships arrive at the Syrian coast 2-4 November. After that, according to Western intelligence agencies, Moscow and Damascus will begin a large-scale operation storm East of Aleppo.
The reinforcements we need not only to support the assault of Aleppo. In the case of the successful offensive of Assad’s forces, we cannot exclude that our so-called Western partners will try to strike at the Russian grouping of forces of the Syrian opposition, to thwart the assault.
In this case Russia needed a significant concentration of firepower and resources — that is what will happen with the arrival of our ship group. Such a concentration will show the Americans that with us the games you don’t play.
— Around the fate of Raqqa there are many questions, says Director of the Center for the study of the Middle East and Central Asia, a retired Colonel semen Bagdasarov. To begin with, it is not clear who the members of the coalition headed by the USA will storm this city. This would make the Turks with the Kurds, but to fight shoulder to shoulder, they just won’t.
On the other hand, the Russian-Syrian coalition would also be interesting, for political reasons, to take Raqqa. But we, unfortunately, got stuck at Aleppo, and the current “humanitarian pause” is unquestionably detrimental to our success.
But to block Rakka — business is feasible. The Americans can do it and the forces of the Kurds, and with the help of the Syrian opposition.
However, the blockade will have to install for a few weeks, as promised Ashton Carter, and for a few months. Before sure to take Mosul will not work.
