“Oil and gas dances: Putin does not want to give in Minsk,” — under this title “Belarusian business newspaper” (12.07) reports on the results of the meeting of the Prime Ministers of Russia and Belarus, to discuss in Moscow problems of the Belarusian-Russian economic co-operation and interaction within the Eurasian economic Union. It is noted that the contradictions of the commodity problem remains unresolved. According to the economist Leonid Zlotnikov, “the problem is political in nature”. “From an economic point of view, everything is clear: there is a contract, do it. The terms of the agreement were signed by the official Minsk. In the event of conflict, the Belarusian authorities are to blame, and Putin doesn’t want to give in.
Political scientist Alexander Klaskouski believes that “oil and gas grant” for Belarus were narrowed, first, because of cheaper energy. And secondly, as suggested in Minsk, “due to the avarice of the big East ally” (Naviny.by, 13.07). Lukashenko the Russian leadership “now out of favor”, noted in the article, so “educational moment in the translation of Belarus on the oil diet is not excluded”, but “too pressed ally, as experience shows, troublesome, fraught with scandal, and in principle allied with Moscow time-two and miscalculated”. In turn, economic analyst Irina Krylovich expresses the opinion that “Moscow will force the Belarusian side to fully pay for the gas”, but the “de facto might compromise”, that is “a kind of compensation in the framework of other schemes — for example, through another loan”.
Analyzing the causes of the unresolved issue about the price of gas Naviny.by (15.07) point out that “Eurasian integration of Belarus brought the desired economic gains are unlikely to bring, because the world energy situation changes in principle, return blue-eyed Republic to the fat years of the oil offshore will not.” According to the edition,States, “it came out clearly raw, unfinished”, numerous exceptions and limitations have become a byword. Especially upsetting is the Belarusian side, for which the “brotherly integration” was originally centred on the energy grant that now the creation of a single energy market of the EEU pushed back to 2025. Meanwhile, “the resources of Russia are melting, it loses its ability to subsidize partners in the previous volumes, this means that the incentive to Eurasian integration, the Belarusian authorities have weakened”. As for the Union state, his construction of “long-frozen”, says the newspaper. In General, Minsk does not want to get involved in the “cold war” Russia — NATO”.
Prime Ministers of Belarus and Russia failed to end the war on oil and gas talks in Moscow. On the background of commodity escalation 15 Belarusian dairy factories stopped exporting dried milk to Russia. “Moscow makes less dramatic statements, but causes a very significant economic impacts to official Minsk, writes UDF.by (13.07). It is assumed that “there is no turning away from the Kremlin, Lukashenko is not, it is still tightly bound by numerous obligations with the Kremlin leadership, who are sometimes treated kind in Minsk or Moscow.” After the Warsaw summit of NATO-Russia relations “with the consolidated into a defensive Alliance with the West entering a new, a little predictable phase of tension,” and in this situation, the President of the Russian Federation “simply will not allow any uncertainty in relations with the Belarusian strategic ally.”
Belarus “suddenly” appeared in the center of military “games” between Russia and NATO, surrounded by their military bases, experts interviewed UDF.by (13.07). Tension directly affects Minsk: Russia does not refuse from a desire “to put its air base in Belarus, and it will go very tough fight”. According to experts, the Russian Federation requires that Alexander Lukashenko has made a choice: “whose side will he fight?”
Expert “Our opinion” (11.07) Arseny sivitsky, who watched from inside the NATO summit in Warsaw, said: “the Fact that Belarus is not in any way mentioned during the summit — that’s good. Because usually strategic planning NATO sees Belarus as an unconditional military and political ally of the Kremlin, which automatically will support and join the Russian aggressionagainst States that are members of NATO, especially if we are talking about the Baltic theater of military operations”.The main issue the author believes put NATO into question the” military sovereignty of Belarus: “the Belarusian armed forces are seen as deeply integrated part of the Russian armed forces, under the orders of the Kremlin.” And such a perception is not without the help of the Russian side that tries to undermine the image of Belarus as an independent and sovereign state.”
Will the Minsk Moscow in the event of a military conflict with NATO? In search of an answer to this question military analyst Naviny.by (16.07) Alexander Alesin admits that “close economic linkage” is likely to force Minsk to do so, but while the Belarusian authorities continue the foreign policy maneuvering.
“It is clear that without the participation of Belarus no serious retaliatory measures against the Eastern members of NATO, Moscow will not accept. Even if you have the necessary forces and means she can not do without the use of the Belarusian foothold. Russian strategists have long considered Belarus a wedge driven into the depth of NATO, “strategic balcony” which hangs over the European theater of operations. In this regard, almost all experts agree that the forecast that Moscow will keep the Minsk as its military-political ally, come what may. Consequently, the emerging recent roughness between the two countries will not be able to affect the strategic aspects of their relationship. And for “bedding” Moscow can go to providing another economic preferences”, says Alesin.
