In the near future retail gasoline prices may jump by 10%. To compensate losses from excise duties on fuel, introduced a month ago, the oil companies will reduce production or increase exports. This will lead to a rise in wholesale prices, and retighten retail.
From 1 April introduced additional excise taxes on motor fuels: 2 RUB per liter of petrol, 1 RUB — on liter of “diesel”. For the month of the excise duty rates virtually unchanged and even declined slightly.
According to Thomson Reuters KORTES, a week from 28 March to 1 April the average wholesale price of 92-octane gasoline was 38 260 rubles per ton. The price of a liter at the gas station was at 34,39 RUB Diesel fuel in the wholesale cost 31 321 rubles per ton, liter of diesel fuel in retail — 35,35 RUB.
For the week ended April 29, the average Russian wholesale price of petrol “Regular-92” was already 37 856 RUB. per ton, retail — 34,55 rubles. per liter. The wholesale price of “diesel” was on average 31 071 rubles per ton, retail — 35,26 rubles.per liter.
Thus, only increased the retail price of 92-octane gasoline, and the increase was less than 0.5%.
“In fact, prices began to rise earlier,” says one of the participants of the fuel market. — That the final decision on the excise duty is taken, became known in late February and during March, gasoline prices rose by 0.5 rubles per liter”.
According to the interlocutor “Газеты.Ru” is this due to the fact that market players of gasoline began to increase prices to the real excise taxes in an attempt to avoid further claims of the Federal Antimonopoly service (FAS).
“By the way, the FAS, having the administrative resource, will restrain the growth of retail prices, says a market participant. — According to our calculations, with the introduction of the excise tax retail would be the end of the year to grow by about 8%. But, given the influence of the FAS, an increase of about 5%”.
In Thomson Reuters KORTES note that it makes sense to compare the dynamics of the wholesale prices since the beginning of year and year to year.
“Wholesale prices are rising since the beginning of the year — say in the Thomson Reuters KORTES. Growth from January 2016 already amounted to 19.2%, taking into account a small decline in mid-April and early may”.
But in 2015 the growth of wholesale prices of 92-octane gasoline from the beginning of January to beginning of may amounted to only 2.8%, with 32 504 33 to 415 rubles per ton.
Russia’s average retail prices for the same gasoline from the beginning of 2016 has grown by less than 1%. For the period from January to early may of last year actually declined, from 32.5 to 32.36 RUB per liter.
Thus, the rise in wholesale prices significantly ahead of the rise in price of gasoline in retail, which is constrained by the authorities. That is suffering from rising prices not so much end consumers, producers and sellers.
Another source in the fuel market said that while the growth of wholesale prices even somewhat restrained by the excess supply compared to demand. “Given the decline in prices at the end of last year, is now opt — virtually at last year’s levels (before the reduction), — specifies a source. And oil companies, taking on an additional burden in the form of excise taxes, while not compensated for it.”
The source believes that this is what the oilers will do in the near future. In particular, for the growth of prices can be sought to change the balance of supply and demand, such as reduced production or increased exports.
This will lead to higher prices in the opt, and for wholesale anyway will catch up retail. Growth could reach about 10%.
