The stock price of gasoline steadily increasing, and with the beginning of the year rose by 20%. This price increase will inevitably affect the prices in the retail market in the coming weeks.
Motorists are already preparing to return to the market “bodyazhnogo” gasoline, FAS, meanwhile strictly followed, that of the coming increase in fuel prices, no one stuttered.
According to the website Energy Insider, from the beginning, the Federal Antimonopoly service (FAS) of Russia has issued two warnings related to statements regarding the forecast of gasoline prices. First it received its first Vice-President of LUKOIL Vladimir Nekrasov, who told reporters that without the increase in gasoline prices the economy of the Russian plants will tend to zero. Then a warning was Director of business development independent Agency “Analytics of commodity markets” Mikhail Turukalov. The FAS decided that his statements about the upcoming increase in gasoline prices can lead to violation of the law on protection of competition.
According to the site, the FAS have long been verbally forbidden to give forecasts on fuel prices fuel to the heads of associations, so as not to create market hype. Perhaps antimonopolschiki just be on the safe side, fearing that motorists would immediately rush to fill petrol all available capacity. Sounds crazy, but in the early nineties it was a behavioural norm for motorists. How many fires have arisen because of cans of gasoline stored in garages and on balconies, and emergency, and dormant instincts of the average man can Wake up at any moment.
The only problem is that the scale of the problem is already far beyond the views of individual experts. Just look at the charts of the trades of gasoline placed on the website of the St. Petersburg international Mercantile exchange to understand the growth of prices for gasoline is inevitable. In favor of this speaks the fact that the first of the year “ninety-second” went up by 20.6%, with 31711 38304 rubles to rubles per ton.
“Ninety-fifth” — almost as well, by 20.7%: with up to 33352 40192 rubles. grafik.jpg thus, according to Rosstat, retail prices for both brands of gasoline in February was down by 0.1% against January, and by 0.4-0.5% compared with December of last year.
Price stability at the retail level in their growth in wholesale can have only one explanation for gasoline retailers still sell old stocks of fuel. When they run out, which will happen very soon, retailers will begin to make up the price gap. In a market economy it is inevitable. Pressure Can certainly argue that in addition to the laws of the market there are still rules and administrative systems. These rules, in particular, is guided by the FAS prohibiting to predict the growth of prices. These rules are governed by other officials, who now exert increasing pressure on refiners, trying to get them to guarantee stability in fuel prices.
Recall that the experience of coercion for a moratorium on the increase of petrol prices by the authorities there. However, in the current situation of administrative levers are unlikely to be effective because rising prices due to objective reasons — double the increase in excise duties.
The first of 2 rubles per liter, occurred in January.
Second, another 2 rubles — will happen from 1 April.
It is clear that the market prepares for higher prices. And now it doesn’t matter who buys their expensive petrol retailers restocking, before prices soared even more, or speculators hoping for a profitable resale of the fuel in April. The result is that gasoline prices will rise. Or again petrol crisis of 2011, when many regions there is a shortage of fuel.
According to experts, as a result of two increases in excise duties, with the first of April, their share in the price of each liter of gasoline will be about 8 rubles, and the total tax component in retail price of fuel would come close to 60%. Thus, when the costs of production and logistics of over 30%, the margin of petrol station owners will fluctuate on the brink of economic profitability is around 5%.
In such circumstances, the sellers of gasoline will not remain other variants, except how to shift the increase in the tax on the final consumer. As a side effect of this is likely to be the increase in “bodyazhnogo” gasoline.
