On the background of another oil and gas dispute, Belarus again was puzzled looking for an alternative to Russian oil. Previous experience did not lead to success, but has made Moscow more amenable.
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Talks with Iran
Belarus is negotiating with Iran on oil supplies, said on 7 October Alexander Lukashenko, speaking to the deputies of the chamber of representatives and Council of Republic of National Assembly of the fifth and sixth convocations.
“Now we are negotiating with Iran who just desperately looking where to put oil. And ready us to reduce the price”, — said the head of Belarus.
According to him, this is done in connection with the difficulties in the negotiations with Russia, which has cut oil supplies to Belarus due to disagreements on the price of gas. For this reason, the government has been given the task of finding alternatives to Russian oil.
“We have agreed today loaded tanker goes to Odessa, and start to supply through Ukraine to Mozyr oil refinery”, — said Alexander Lukashenko.
Iranian alternative
The Ukrainian Director of “Consulting group A-95” Sergey Kuiun believes it prudent to have alternative suppliers amid conflict with Russia.
According to experts, after the lifting of sanctions Iran is very active in the oil market. This means that he will look for opportunities to expand markets, including through effective pricing.
In addition, now the processors of the Eastern European countries are actively seeking ways of diversifying its raw material supplies. For example, the Polish company LOTOS plans to sign with Iran a long-term contract on oil supplies.
“And the Belarusian oil refining in this plan should not be an exception. The more we see that from time to time there are difficulties with the Russian partners, therefore, have approximately 20-25% of alternative supplies in General would be quite reasonable”, — says Sergey Kuiun.
Thus, in his opinion, such transfers have economic feasibility. The expert refers to the calculations of transport Iranian oil through the Ukrainian pipeline system from Odessa to Brody and then to Mozyr, but not names numbers.
“These calculations show that Iranian oil is competitive compared to Russian. In addition, its quality is, in fact, meets the quality of the Russian Urals. Accordingly, there are no additional measures for recycling”, — stressed the Director of “Consulting group A-95”.
At the same time, according to him, in the case of a contract it will be a long-term rather than short-term obligations.
“We tried and failed. So no one will not work. Need assurance of supply. But this is a very interesting and promising project”, — says Sergey Kuiun.
The Venezuelan experience
Deputy Director of Center of system analysis and strategic studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus Georgy grits believes the import of Iranian oil is not the best solution.
He recalled that, in 2010-2012 during the previous oil conflict that arose after the introduction of Russian export duties on oil, Belarus has tried to find an alternative to Russian raw materials in a friendly Venezuela.
Then a contract was signed for the supply of 30 million tons between the Belarusian oil company and the Venezuelan oil company PDVSA, but to Belarus, swam, roughly speaking, only a few tankers. While Venezuelan oil was eventually replaced by Azerbaijani.
The Belarusian authorities have acknowledged that the cost of transporting oil from Venezuela is very high. But Russia went to Belarus on assignment: abolished duties and resumed oil supplies.
“Oil supplies from Venezuela were a brotherly aid to our country”, — said in 2012, Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Semashko.
Most likely, and this time Belarus will put pressure on Russia by scaring possible the supply of Iranian oil.
“It’s all too politicized. In principle, frostbitten finger to the evil mother. Prices-the Russian clearly below. As part of the impact it can have meaning, but as a real project, probably not”, — said Georgy grits.
