What purpose Minsk raised the price for the transit of our oil
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko (Photo: Mikhail Metzel/TASS)
The Ministry of Antimonopoly regulation and trade of Belarus has raised tariffs on transit of Russian oil through the territory of the country approximately in half. The decree was signed on 1 October and shall come into force on the 11th. This decision was driven largely by dissatisfaction with the Republic’s leadership with the current tariff for Russian gas for Belarusian consumers.
The document says that the cost of transportation of ton of oil through the pipeline Unecha (Vysokoye) — Adamova Zastava grew up with 267,32 to 400,98, through the pipeline Unecha (High) — Brody — 114,82 172,23 to RUB in the direction of Nevel (Velikie Luki) — Polotsk — 32,31 before 48,47 RUB.
Apparently, the reason for this significant increase in tariffs was the lack of agreement on price for gas. At present Belarus buys Russian natural gas at 132 dollars per thousand cubic meters. Minsk insists that a fair price — $ 73. In principle, when calculating the cost for the next year, Moscow is ready to compromise. We are ready to sell gas to the allies at domestic prices, multiplied by some coefficient. According to the calculations of Moscow, the price will be then $ 100 per thousand cubic meters. For comparison, the inhabitants of the Russian houses, if the calculation is for the counter, pay today, about $ 87 per thousand cubic meters.
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has called the Russian-proposed new compromise scheme for the calculation of the pressure that “Belarusians will not tolerate”.
At the same time Lukashenko said that outraged by the denial of access to the Russian market some of Belarusian agricultural products. “Obviously, when we supply goods of high quality at reasonable prices in Russia, we are hitting the pockets of the oligarchs from agriculture in Russia. They put pressure on the government… And the government gives the command “FAS” all sorts of officials from the Rosselkhoznadzor and so on… Already tired, already over the edge. Further so can’t proceed”, — said the Belarusian President at the meeting with the state Secretary of the Union state of Belarus and Russia Grigory Rapotaon September 27.
However, Lukashenka did not mention that, say, this year Belarus supplied to Russia apples several times more than was raised. Probably among the Belarusian apples was Polish, the import of which is prohibited to us because of the contracti.
As you can see, the current increase in tariffs for Russian oil transit are connected with a tangle of problems. Accordingly, to solve them will be not easy…
The head of analytical Department of national energy security Fund Alexander Pasechnik said that the Belarusian side does not always use acceptable techniques “bargaining”:
— Most likely, next week will discuss gas prices for Belarus. Apparently, the Belarusians want to show that they too have some tools pressure.
We are tied gas industry with the oil. Belarusians do not pay the debt for gas, and we in turn, limited the supply of crude oil to Belarusian refineries. Minsk tells us also “call” from the oil sector.
But I am inclined to believe that the task is to return all in a constructive direction, to negotiate on gas and to remove the problems in the oil sector. Just the whole energy of the complex becomes a subject of negotiations, not only the gas debt and the attempts of Belarus to receive discounts.
“SP”: — who leverage more substantial?
— Processing of Russian oil greatly affects the GDP of Belarus. If resources will not be available, the refinery will rise. That is why we have created an incentive to repay the gas debt. Now the accumulated debt of about 270 million dollars.
Introduced Belarusians rates hit our economy, although the situation is tolerable. Just do not understand the approach of Minsk. Was not indexing, but actually fold increase, hardly will understand it in Moscow.
Instead of to sit at the negotiating table, Belarus enters headstrong. It is necessary first to discuss the problem, and then make some decisions.
In the escalation, no one is interested, but the talks have extremely difficult.
“SP”: — Why is not possible to negotiate constructively?
The 2015 year has been relatively calm. Now the situation is different. Belarusians have a strategic oil reserve, but he’s exhausted, their enterprise can be simple. And losses from the reduction of Russian oil deliveries would be more substantial than she wants to save money on gas prices.
Belarusians want to reduce the price of gas. But do not through negotiation, but by a rather strange decisions, just not to pay unilaterally. So they are trying to create a situation that the negotiation will be required. They say, we pay, if we come to a consensus. Moscow is in principle prepared to negotiate the price, but for Belarus it is now one of the most comfortable prices.
Belarus is our greatest ally. And wonder why there is such a tape, there are no normal solutions. Began the fourth quarter, to think particularly of no time.
Deputy Director of the Center for Ukrainian and Belarusian studies at Moscow state University Bogdan Bezpalko “tariff wars” considers the manifestation of misunderstanding between the two countries in political issues:
— The Belarusian economy alone can not survive. Theoretically, Belarus could live by itself, but average incomes would be at 70 dollars a month. Today they are much higher, and it is unlikely that people from them want to give up in favor of the ephemeral independence.
Belarus can only exist within a large integration project, Russian or Western. As it is included in the Federal government, it is logical to assume that Belarus will continue to evolve within the economic, military, political processes initiated by Russia. But we see that this is not happening.
Moscow, in principle, willing to turn a blind eye on low gas prices for Belarus closer to domestic prices in Russia. But the Belarusian authorities categorically refused, for example, to place our military base, which would have great importance for common security.
The rising cost of oil transit just once again demonstrates that relations between Russia and Belarus are based on the principle of “donor-client”.
We have disagreements on many issues. For example, the mass smuggling of food from the European Union, which reduces the effectiveness of our counter-sanctions. From the Kaliningrad region was transited via Belarus, our appliances, so it is in Belarus, just confiscated. Belarus actively open up the Western branches of the plants of agricultural machinery and at the same time convince Russia that we do not need, and need to buy within the EEU produced in Belarus. There are claims to quality of Belarusian milk.
And so almost all points of cooperation of the Union state. Recently, for example, declared insolvent the merger of MAZ and KAMAZ.
I see no reason why we should think about the Belarusian businessmen, sending to its market for Belarusian products, not in return for any geopolitical and economic benefits. To better support our farmers who received the incentive because of the sanctions.
“SP”: — in Belarus Did not realize that such a policy could come to a standstill?
— Minsk has decided that it can successfully use your allied status, especially after the events in Ukraine. Indeed, the exit of Belarus from our integration projects will bring the border of the Western world directly to the Smolensk region. Belarusians understand that this is undesirable for Russia. And they think they can get a lot of preferences exclusively for the preservation of their formal status.
In fact, the Belarusian leadership is going West. But not as a Ukrainian, which decided to jump into the unknown and gradually.
The Belarusian leadership does not want full integration with us. In General, the society in Belarus is configured to us positively, the majority speaks Russian. And at one point the question may arise why we do not unite as one. Of course, it is not beneficial to nationalist intellectuals. Something similar can be said about Ukraine, which artificially pushed the society to the creation of a separate identity. Movement to the West is a way to keep their “inheritance”.
