According to the Agency “Xinhua”, on the summit of “big twenty” China has offered the world a new model of global economic governance. The milestones recorded in the document entitled “Hangzhou consensus”. Interestingly, Xinhua notes a good understanding of the project with other participants in the G20.
Formally, at a meeting in Hangzhou, nothing extraordinary happened. Media reported that world leaders discussed the most acute problems, but did not say what practical measures have been developed. For example, in the course of various meetings, Hollande, Merkel, Obama and Putin discussed Ukraine and Syria. But in fact the impression that everything will remain the same, or to anything not specifically agreed, and each state will continue to hold the line. The same can be said about the problems of the world economy. Supposedly, met, talked and parted. The G20 summit in mass consciousness is associated with some sort of “elite club”, not on decision-making.
Therefore, the message “Sinhua” makes draw attention to themselves. It turns out, according to the Agency, “thanks to the efforts of China, at the summit of “big twenty” in Hangzhou for the first time at an important place in the global macro-questions were raised, development was first developed action plan on implementation of the plan of continuous development till 2030″. That is, I think, before world leaders met to talk, but in China, began to do business.
“This means that the fruits of economic development should not only use a small number of people or countries, they must benefit all countries, regardless of whether they are poor or rich, developed or underdeveloped. This is the task of development of the global economy,” — commented on the results of the summit Vice-President of the Academy of Finance under the people’s University of China Zhao Sitzung.
Given the traditional Chinese media restraint in the wording, we can conclude that China is preparing a new model of world order.
We can assume, what is its essence.
Now the world economy slows growth. At first it happened in developed countries, and there was hope for growth in developing countries. But recently it has become clear that this hope is not justified. He can revive the global economy? Some say that new technology. But the increase in productivity does not eliminate the problem of market oversaturation. In Europe some commercial banks issue loans at negative interest, as money in the modern world has become very difficult to find application.
Trouble is, of course, not in the physical absence of the consumer. Just the current model based on unrestrained growth of consumption in rich countries and the neglect of hundreds of millions of people in poor countries being excluded from the world economy. To resume the growth it is necessary to create consumer demand in Africa, the poorest countries of Asia and Latin America. But it does mean that it is necessary to reduce inequalities between different parts of the world and abandon the old model.
The new economy should be based not on growth but on ensuring that all people need. This involves energy and resource efficiency, transferring of motivation to work with requirements on human abilities.
The current model rests on the dollar and it is based on inequality. And the most successful state not so much produce themselves, how many are involved in the redistribution of the results of the labor of others and others ‘ resources. To change the system is possible only by abandoning the dollar.
Not difficult to guess that a new global currency China’s yuan. By the way, on the banknote of one yuan depicts West lake in downtown Hangzhou. We can say that the venue of the G20 Chinese was not chosen by chance. Experts say that in the picture on the banknote is a symbol of unity of heaven, earth and man. This is quite different from the overtly Masonic symbols on the back of dollar on the background of the web, as you can guess, enveloping the world.
The only thing one can hardly agree with the authors of the article in Xinhua that all the world leaders were sympathetic to the initiatives of China. To abandon the foundations of their welfare States and European countries obviously do not want to.
Now China, an attempt was made to oust the Western countries in managing the global economy, says Deputy Director of the Institute for Far Eastern studies Andrei Ostrovsky.
— “Controlling stakes” in key international financial organizations belong to the United States and the European Union. If we talk about currency, you always have the dollar, Euro, pound, yen. Only recently a decision was made about inclusion of the yuan in the international currency.
Hangzhou China has tried to revise the system of global economic governance, to prevent this process in developing countries. In the G20 includes 19 countries and the EU, and at the summit was represented by 77 countries. China — the country holding the presidency of the Association, she has the right to invite other States. This right, China has used as much as possible, to have greater support to their initiatives.
“SP”: — What are you going to do China in a practical way?
— China has established the Asian infrastructure investment Bank, Fund “silk road”. It is a practical business. The Asian infrastructure investment Bank for assets already exceeds the Asian Bank of reconstruction and development.
China is implementing the project “Great silk road”. Despite the fact, will other States accept his plans or not, China is already implementing its economic program. China is moving away from the basic ideas of Deng Xiaoping “low profile”, and this is clearly visible on the summit of “big twenty” in Hangzhou.
“SP”: — Any major changes worth waiting for?
— China intends to increase the economic capacity of developing countries. Today, the share of countries G20 in the world economy is 86%, all other States accounted for only 14%, so we see great inequality in the world. To narrow the gap, it is necessary to change the system of global economic governance. Today, the system is tied to the dollar, the Federal reserve system and the Bretton Woods agreement. The Chinese are trying to change. The first step is to make the yuan a convertible currency. It is clear that it’s not a five-year period.
The transition from the “world dollar” to “world yuan” a long process. But the yuan included in the basket of global reserve currencies. This means that all the banks that conduct foreign exchange, will be required to have in reserves, the yuan, that is to buy on the world market, the Chinese currency. For example, Russian banks want to have representative offices abroad. From October they will need to not only have pounds and dollars, but the yuan.
Most importantly, why this process goes. The fact that the Chinese economy is growing, and the growth rate is higher than in the US and the EU. China has to be considered.
“SP”: — the Initiatives of China hardly like the West.
— Of course. Attempts to bring down China from the route of sustainable development. Don’t accidentally flare up scandals around the disputed Islands in the South China sea. Interesting debate between the leader of the Philippines and the President of the United States. Both sides had to compromise because of China.
The China factor in the world today is key, same as us. According to purchasing power parity GDP of China more than the United States. Per capita incomes in the coastal provinces of Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang is comparable to the incomes of Americans on the coast of the Atlantic ocean, in Boston or Philadelphia.
“SP”: — How made by China changes in the world economy can affect Russia?
— We have with China signed a number of agreements and treaties. Another thing is that our “pivot to the East” is poorly implemented. Of the total volume of foreign trade is still accounted for 85% of the West and only 15% to the East, of these 15%, China accounts for 12%. Our foreign trade volume with China is still small. In the first eight months of this year the volume of foreign trade amounted to less than $ 50 billion. We are not yet able to reach the level of 2014. There has been a practice in politics is hot, the economy is cold.” Economic cooperation lags behind the political one.
The share of cross-border trade is only 15% of the entire trade. The volume of mutual investment is small. In the past year, the Chinese invested us about a billion dollars, we have the Chinese — only 40 million of Foreign trade is directly linked to mutual investment.
We have to decide whether we turn to the East. East economic forum talked about this. But the negotiations are still in progress and we do not see. Something is being done, but it’s not a fundamental change. So the question arose with ice cream, which we really much better than the Chinese. Why, even with the ice cream problem?
— China proposes, first of all, the opening of regional markets by eliminating import and export duties, — said the head of the School of Oriental studies of the HSE Alexey Maslov.
It is beneficial to China, which has accumulated a lot of goods. He wants to penetrate new markets. This prevented the United States, which prohibit conduct dumping measures. When China says new global trade rules, he cares primarily about themselves and not about other countries.
Just the current global market was formed without the participation of China, as a narrow system. China wants to get their share of the market.
Now, in my opinion, China’s proposals will not be accepted. But China simply must go with them to declare itself as about the leader of the new world order and to attract a large number of Asian countries.
China proposes the admission of States to the markets of each other. Technically it sounds good. But benefit only those who have excess goods. To some extent it is beneficial to Russia, but until we have sufficient volume of products with which you can get to world markets. China opposes various restrictions on trade, quotas. China is fighting for himself, but pretends that defends the interests of other countries.
“SP”: — How justified the thesis that China wants to move from a model of consumption growth on the growth model of welfare?
Is not an economic model but a political statement. For a long time, China’s economy has grown at the expense of investment in fixed assets, that is, through the construction of plants, factories, and roads. Formally, this increased GDP. But the growth was due to the increase in fixed assets, but not at the expense of growth of welfare of citizens. Today, China aims to expand domestic consumption. Thus, China plans to restart the economy.
But it was not yet such that due to the growth of consumption, all at the same time become richer. Someone will get poorer, some get ruined. But theoretically there is a chance to feed everyone.
“SP”: — China has the ambition to reshape the global economic system?
— China has serious ambitions. In addition to the development of trade, China is interested in access to major investment projects in the world. Today they may not deliver, but in the long term profitable. Talking about railway lines to ports. China seeks to expand and to invest abroad. But for this we need to obtain numerous permits from the bureaucracy, against which China and acts.
If we take the issue of “gold yuan”, China and it is not openly discussed. But it is clear that China committed not to link its currency with the concept of free conversion. China does not raise this issue in order not to be dependent on the Bretton woods system, when any conversion goes through the dollar.
The yuan can remain a reserve currency, as it is now. Either China wants to try to bring the yuan to the level of the currency through which it will go to the conversion. That is, a speech about formation of an alternative system of currency conversion. Theoretically it looks nice, but in practice requires a consensus of many States. I have serious doubts that China will be able to do the next few years.
Talking about China, and is at least 25 years, usually the planning horizon in China is such.
