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Why Erdogan was successful Yanukovych

Почему Эрдоган оказался успешнее Януковича

Recep Tayyip Erdogan was able to suppress the attempted coup in Turkey and to stay in power. In this regard, in the Russian segment of the Internet joke was born. Netizens published a photo of a baffled ex-President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych, who asks: “what, could you?” “So” means the violent suppression of the rebellion. In Russia, many people, including government officials, believe that Yanukovych in February 2014 the face of the Maidan, and especially the army of the militant nationalists had behaved inexcusably soft.

In many countries with a relatively young tradition of democracy (this includes Turkey and especially Ukraine) there is an institution that from time to time acts as a defender of democratic values and gains. In Ukraine, this Institute since the time of the 2004 presidential election, is Maidan. This tool was used not only Yanukovych’s opponents, but also supporters of Party of regions in 2007. Then Yanukovych was in opposition.

The Maidan is an informal institution that not just pushes the authorities and controls legitimitize her. Yanukovych abolished the Maidan, did not limit freedom of Assembly. As a result, the Institute worked, delegitimiziruet of Yanukovych.

In modern Turkey this institution has always been the army. The military guardians of the secular democratic tradition established by Ataturk. They decisively entered the political arena, if the government has begun a dangerous flirtation with Islamism.

Unlike Turkey’s President Viktor Yanukovych that he weakened the institution, which in the long term could legitimize the ruling elite. A number of opponents of Erdogan are the generals left the army. Some ended up in jail. In the leadership of the armed forces came loyal to Erdogan people. The result was the army suppressed the instinct of opposition Pro-Islamic policy of the authorities. He remained primarily at the level of colonels. Now trimmed and this step. A significant part of the armed forces and police, supported Erdogan.

Another factor influencing the resistance of elites in the coup attempts, is the presence of conscious beneficiaries of government policy. It is an active part of society, ready if necessary to go outside, ignore the entered the coup, the curfew and martial law, literally to crawl under tanks. And this should happen in the center of events in the capital.

Erdogan found such people. Their streets provokes the opponents of the authorities on aggression, the consequence of which is bloodshed. In this situation, speaking out against the ruling elite loses legitimacy. When in the night from 15 to 16 July, news agencies gave reports of injured police officers and civilians on the bridge over the Bosphorus, it became clear that Erdogan cope.

Yanukovych in 2014 was not able to achieve. Kiev did not come out to defend the government. The media did not provide Yanukovych advantage in the interpretation of events. “Berkut” became a target of public anger. Potential defenders of the acting power were on the periphery – in the Donbas and the Crimea. But there was launched the mechanism of secession from Ukraine to join Russia or declare independence. No one has made a conditional March to Kyiv in order to select the Maidan “Bandera”, to use it to put pressure on the government.

Legitimacy can be lost, for example, breaking promises, unable to cope with the challenges. The elite may lose power, when the Institute of delegitimization, and people do not go out to defend the status quo. Erdogan has long worked to weaken the Institute delegitimize and take to the streets of active citizens. So it turned out that did not come from Yanukovych.

Read more in “Nezavisimaya Gazeta” http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-07-19/2_red.html

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