Illustration: alarabiya.net
Turkey still it happened. The discontent of the Turkish military resulted in direct confrontation with the political leadership of the country. The officers mutinied, announced the creation of a “Peace Council”, took control of several roads and squares in the two largest cities of Turkey. But the military coup did not end well for the conspirators. The hated President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is closer to the dawn on July 16 announced the suppression of the rebellion.
At the moment, behind the scenes, maybe the most important political and military events of that year remain a number of unclear circumstances. The military coup were quick to call “Amateur” and pre-doomed to failure. In particular, such assessments came from the United States. That is where Erdogan has noticed almost a “command post” of the organizers of the coup, accusing residing in the us state of Pennsylvania of its most ardent political opponent of theologian Fethullah Gulen.
But the steps of the military rebels was far from Amateur. They used the means at their disposal an Arsenal for the solution of key tasks, which would open them the way to the cherished goal. This is the physical removal of Erdogan, after which he built over 14 years of rule, the frame of the political system were to collapse. That is why the first target to strike the rebels identified the summer residence of Erdogan in the Mediterranean Marmaris.
The head of state escaped this fate, and with this whole “storyline” of the coup gained absolutely disadvantageous for the coup direction. Erdogan mobilized the main resource — led his supporters to the streets the night of Ankara and Istanbul. From the moment when the squares began to gather Turkish citizens and Erdogan from Marmaris arrived in Istanbul, the rebellion really was doomed.
Erdogan did not win, he just got lucky. Although the rebellion is suppressed, it brought the political demise of the current Turkish leader. Internal divisions of Turkey, a harbinger of the civil war, is so great that it manifested itself in the strongest institution of the state. Army and security agencies were split to a greater degree than previously assumed. The main organizers of the coup called high-ranking officials in the air force and the gendarmerie (similar to the internal troops). The Turkish gendarmerie formed one of the key pressures with the continued suppression of the Kurdish insurgency in the Southeast of the country. Air force was delivered from a “rough” field work in the war against its own people, but their patience was exhausted.
In the first public statements of the “Peace Council” clearly was a thought looming in Turkey disaster, if the authorities will remain Erdogan. President for nearly a dozen years of the “smoothed” the army to the ground. But, recently drew the attention of their readers Colossal, some of the floors military hierarchy was extremely hostile “moderate Islamist” sitting on top of the power. This is the level of mid-level officers, mostly colonels. They’re on a few hours paralyzed the work of the General staff, raised the aircraft into the air and tossed to capture the strategic objects of the internal troops.
Now Erdogan is only two roads: either the voluntary addition of powers, or total cleaning of all levels of the power unit of Turkey. The first can be immediately ruled out, because Erdogan is just missing the internal “peace code”. He will not leave, although this step would be way out of the crisis, prevent its transformation into a disaster. On the contrary, he felt a new burst of energy, a certain “courage” from the current in his favor the circumstance, he will go to the end. Go, and would bring its own collapse as a politician.
Breakdown of the Turkish voters still happened. However, the perimeter Turkish borders Erdogan has lost the last vestiges of trust. One of the main resources of Erdogan — the solidity of the political elite and security apparatus — ripped at the seams. There was not just a system failure. Hung all of the “operational programme” political structure of Turkey.
Erdogan will be restarted to its usual repressive manner, but with a more pronounced aggressive accent. He will not resist the temptation to “completely understand” not only with the military and Gulen, but also with their political opponents. Whether secular Republican people’s party or the Pro-Kurdish Party democracy peoples. And it is a straight road to dictatorship, set up by Erdogan nobody in the West will not allow.
The role of the US and its European NATO allies in this whole story also to thoroughly comprehend. With Erdogan before the attempted coup, few in the West wanted personally to shake hands. Now more than ever for him to be a false attitude. At least due to the fact that he made a “mini-war” on the streets of Ankara and Istanbul with dozens of victims, we emphasize, is not the result of terrorist attacks, and armed conflict within the state government. The massacre of some security forces with others, involving army aircraft and heavy military equipment in the country-member of NATO is unthinkable and shameful for the US and the EU situation.
To Erdogan in the West long before the recent events, turned his back, took it to shake hands and failed leaders. And even launched his plan is methodical, but without the “excesses”, the ouster (the plan for the conditional name “Interdean”). But that here so, with the military coup that Turkey’s allies in the Euro-Atlantic bloc was initially excluded from the instrumentation plan, Unterzogen,” he appeared for Washington and European capitals is akin to a cold shower.
It turned out that in Turkey everything is much worse than predicted by Western intelligence. The main “newsmaker” of Erdogan’s victory over the putschists, the national intelligence organization (MIT), and she was “not aware”, and barely withstood the furious onslaught of the conspirators.
Reason, the conventional starting point for the preparation of the revolt, from our point of view, you should look for in mid-February 2016. 17 th of February in Ankara explosion. 22 of the 28 dead were military pilots. Responsibility for attack was assumed by one of the military organizations of the Turkish Kurds. In then the media leaked information that Erdogan personally gave the order in every way to conceal the fact of death of officers-pilots. It did not, moreover some of the generals and colonels from the Turkish air force since that time, held the President of an irresistible anger. What she and many other grievances part of the military class of the country resulted showed the night from 15 to 16 July.
As for the causes of the armed coup, they deserve extensive analysis, getting rid of the first impressions from the incident. It is even more important to understand further the internal political dynamics in Turkey. However, it is already clear following.
Erdogan was caught in a trap, out of which a state of emergency, curfews, the subsequent meltdown of the entire power of the machine it is not found. One way out — voluntary and voluntary resignation of the President, early elections, forming a coalition government. This is the ideal. In practice, Erdogan would prefer to plunge into the disaster together with the whole Turkey, not his “sacrifice” to stop 80 million country from the brink.
The middle East edition of the Colossal
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Tanks crushed people during the coup attempts in Turkey: video
The rebels surrendered to the authorities, stripped and forced to crawl
