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Military coup attempt in Turkey, taken in the night from 15 to 16 July. poorly organized group of soldiers, was a surprise even for the most experienced of scholars.
Now the experts on both sides of the ocean are trying to understand the causes and predict the consequences of these is not a trivial event for Turkey, the region and the big geopolitics. However, amid the reports about tanks in Istanbul, shooting in Marmaris and combat aircraft over Ankara virtually unnoticed there was one very curious fact. July 14-16, Turkey was visited by Alexander Dugin, in the words of Eduard Limonov, — “Cyril and Methodius of fascism”, the chief ideologue of the Russian version of Eurasianism and unofficial Advisor to the Kremlin on issues of geopolitics. In Ukraine, this preacher of the ideas of Mussolini and extremely Orthodox Orthodoxy know as one of the masterminds of many expansionist and adventurous campaigns of Putin — the war in Georgia in 2008 prior to the annexation of Crimea, the “new Russia” and public calls to “kill, kill and kill again” Ukrainians. In 2014, these appeals have even cost him the post of Professor of sociology of Moscow state University. Now, according to Turkish media, Dugin came to Turkey not only as a scientist but also as a “special representative of the President of the Russian Federation” and the man who played a key role in the rapid normalization of relations between Moscow and Ankara.
Close relations with Turkish politicians Dugin has long been known. In 2004, he was accompanied by V. Putin during his official visit to Turkey at the invitation of Demirel. Obviously the visit was for Dugin more than successful. The idea of “great Turan” and unity of “Eurasians”, in contrast to the “dictates” of the United States, transatlantism and the liberal West, not only clearly voiced at the conference in one of the leading universities of Ankara, in the media and during official meetings, but was further developed in the book “the Axis Moscow—Ankara”, published shortly afterwards in Turkish.
Given such a long “special relationship” with Turkey, another voyage Dugin in Istanbul and Ankara to no one’s surprise. The surprise was the circumstances that accompany this time in the country, “foreign consultant”. The night of the failed coup, the Russian scientist met with Ankara mayor Gökçek M. — figure, to put it mildly, controversial and known for his love of conspiracy theories.
Pre-Dugin managed to see several deputies from the ruling justice and development party (AKP) and to make a presentation at the conference on Russian-Turkish relations, is timely organized a kind of “Eurasian Union of local authorities”. In addition, the organization of the visit and official meetings A. Dugin has played a significant role and partners of the party “Watan” (the former workers ‘ party of Turkey headed by Dogu Perincek is a marginal political force, scored in the last parliamentary elections of votes, 0.2%).
Mentioned “Eurasian Union of local authorities” — the structure itself is very interesting. At its ideological core is a kind of mixture of the ideas of pan-Turkism and the Turkish version of Eurasianism. Its own website of this organization there. To judge her public activities can be extremely short posts in social networks and indirect references to sites ideologically close movements. Officially, the purpose of the Union is declared “promotion of the Turkish culture and the development of social ties between the Turkic societies”. According to its leader, Hasan Cengiz, the first projects in this field were implemented in 1990-ies. However, apparently, in its present form this organization arose in early 2014 that miraculously coincides with the flowering of the ideas of aggressive neweurasia in Russia. Characterized by the fact that in February-March 2014 a delegation of the “Eurasian Union of local authorities visited the Crimea. Then was created and an official organization page on Facebook, most of which was devoted to track the progress of the parliamentary vote and referendum” on the question of the future status of Crimea. Later news from the Peninsula is diluted by the publication of a different nature from the traditional calls for the creation of a single Turkic state “Great Turan” in the territories “from the great wall to the Adriatic sea” to the more modern ideas of the “Eurasian Union” — a project once proposed by V. Putin as an alternative to Euro-Atlantic integration. For example, in the publication from March 4, 2014 Hasan Cengiz advises Turkey to “take a closer look” to the Eurasian Union, which is supposed to be created in early 2015. “If France and Germany are the two leaders in the EU, and why Turkey and Russia becoming superpowers in the Eurasian Union?” — asks Cengiz, noting that “the attempted seizure of the Crimea by the Russian Federation is directly connected with the idea of creating the Eurasian Union”. The occupation of the Crimea does not find it the slightest condemnation, but rather a perceived understanding of the imperatives of modern geopolitics.
Thus, it is not surprising that these political forces and social movements have become major “relays” ideas of Dugin in Turkey. Amid the recent attempted coup could not be more helpful and were articulated by Dugin, and later picked up by Turkish state media version of the “conspiracy of Western forces trying to split and weaken the two great regional powers”. Moreover, it is from the mouth of Dugin for the first time voiced the version about the treacherous Turkish pilots, allegedly shot down Russian aircraft in November 2015 without the knowledge of Erdogan and operated according to the instructions of Fethullah gülen and supported by the United States.
The internal policy of Turkey — a subject that do not accept superficial analysis. For example, at first glance, it is impossible to explain why Dugin met MPs from the ruling party, if it is known that the leader of the aforementioned party “Vatan” and a fierce advocate of the teachings of A. Dugin is doğu perinçek is an implacable critic of the current government. In 2014, live your channel “Ulusal D. Perincek promised for several years to “sweep away the regime of Erdogan with the Gulen structures” because they are nothing more than accomplices of the West.” Around the same time, “the Eurasian Advisor” – V. Putin has urged Moscow “to support the popular uprising in Turkey,” which will be directed against the Erdogan government. “Intellectual center” of this uprising, according to Dugin, was to become the “Eurasian leftists of the workers’ party of Turkey, their [printed] publications and TV channel “Ulusal”. From the camp of “enemies,” President Erdogan to the camp of his “associates” by D. Perincek passed relatively recently — after the previous case of the attempted coup d’état, known in Turkey as Ergenekon, was closed, and he was released after conviction to 117 years in prison. Today, almost all defendants in the case released and their places in the conclusion, took the judges allegedly unjustly condemned by some opposition members and top generals of the army for instructions, and all the same gülen. Thus, just in the last few years, and D. Perincek, and sympathetic to the “Eurasianism” of the Turkish extreme left forces with a clearly anti-American sentiment has moved from deep opposition to the position close to power.
It seems that in the current difficult situation of the policy on both ends of an axis “Moscow—Ankara” prefer to take a careful, wait-and-see position, using “reconnaissance” marginal forces like the adherents of neweurasia, in the person of A. Dugin or supporters Dogu Perincek, long discredited in Turkey. On the one hand, their statements are not binding and at any moment can be “roundly condemned” official authority. On the other — that is their rhetoric, not limited to the formal framework of the state policy allows you to announce important messages and understand where the red lines are most sensitive to both sides of the issues. For example, the thesis of A. Dugin on “Russia is ready to support Turkey on the Kurdish issue in the case, if Ankara would agree to reconsider its position on Syria,” casually announced to them in a nondescript conference the next day were quoted by several state media of Turkey as a “proposal of the special representative of Russian President Vladimir Putin on further development of strategic cooperation between the two countries”. And that Vladimir Putin actively uses Dugin quote book, have been writing not only in the West but even in Russia.
All these kinds of seemingly untenable and not worthy of serious consideration of the theory of “imperialist conspiracy” and “Eurasian unity” can signal the emergence of a new, deep-seated processes of reformatting the existing regional order, which in the medium term could lead to the collapse of the traditional unions and the emergence of new, often unexpected geopolitical alliances.
The desire of the Turkish leadership to find alternative ways to implement the regional ambitions of Ankara is quite natural. Experts almost unanimously agree that the middle East policy of Turkey due to various objective and subjective reasons, failed. Multi-year diplomatic crisis with Israel, a sharp deterioration in relations with Egypt, war in Syria, the ongoing conflict in Libya — part of the problem near the Turkish borders.
Anti-Americanism is the basis of all Dugin “philosophy” — has significant numbers of supporters both in Russia and in Turkey. Relations between Ankara and Washington, already difficult due to significant differences on the Syrian issue, after the failed coup attempt faced with a new challenge in connection with Turkey’s demands to arrest and extradite without trial of Fethullah Gulen, the Islamic preacher and head of the religious Hizmet movement living in recent years in Pennsylvania and the accused in Turkey of plotting a coup and the creation of a terrorist organization. In the European Union, in turn, seriously concerned about the mass dismissals of civil servants and the scale of arrests that swept the country after the suppression of the attempted coup. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, and the leaders of several EU countries said the possibility of a complete suspension of negotiations with Ankara in case of deterioration of situation with human rights and the restoration of the death penalty. Given the rise of populist sentiment and Islamophobia in Western societies, it is safe to assume that in the future, the fatigue of Ankara from the “intransigence” of Europe and “double standards” the United States will only increase. In this situation, Russia could become the “stable partner”, which will offer Turkish leadership an effective model of a new geopolitical structure of the world. According to this model, a strategic Alliance between Moscow and Ankara will face in Eurasia “American imperialism” and “in a state of collapse” of Europe. At stake — and trite black sea energy projects, and freedom of passage through the Bosphorus, and the removal of real for Russia the threat of the emergence of the NATO fleet in the Black sea.
Considering other factors of economic, military, political and social nature, now Moscow has all chances to take place, albeit situational, but still a strategic partner of Ankara. In this case, Eurasia is “divided”, according to Dugin, between the two Eurasian — in the literal sense of the word — States. Thus, Turkey’s ambitions to become a regional leader will be implemented, but under the control of the Kremlin. Eurasianism, in this situation, that is the common ideological platform, which will allow you to find common ground with Russia and this will allow Ankara to partially exercise its leadership ambitions.
Discussions about the possibility of Turkey’s accession to the SCO and the Eurasian economic Union are not new. Recently re-articulated by Dugin calls for “forget about the EU and join the Shanghai five” have already been made in 2013, during the next delay in the negotiation process of Turkey with the EU. Today the Turkish leadership has not officially said about such prospects. However, the obvious attempts to update the foreign policy concept, recognized partially incorrect after the resignation of the government, Ahmet Davutoglu. In this context, for example, and the restoration of diplomatic relations with Israel, and update contacts with Iran, and the sudden appearance at the Istanbul summit of the Organization of Islamic cooperation this spring. the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko made possible only thanks to the personal invitation of the Turkish President. Belarus has become the main re-exporter of Turkish fruit and vegetables after the introduction of Russia’s sanctions on Turkish products, and now the parties are discussing plans for a joint ceremonial opening of the main Cathedral mosque in Minsk with the participation of top officials of both countries.
Obviously, Ankara is actively seeking new allies and to address key regional security issues. During a recent telephone conversation with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani, the President of Turkey expressed readiness “hand in hand with Iran and Russia to solve regional problems and close cooperation to strengthen efforts to return to regional peace and stability”. Today in the Syrian issue — a key to regional security — support opposing forces. However, the normalization of Russian-Turkish relations, as well as intensification of dialogue with Tehran, opens new opportunities for cooperation. In particular, Moscow is now clearly hints Ankara in a common interest not only in the fight against ISIS, but also in containing Kurdish groups active along the Turkish-Syrian border. In Turkey, the preservation of the territorial integrity and unitary structure of the Syrian state is no less important task of national security as the fight against Kurdish rebels inside the country. It was the support of Washington’s alliances Syrian Kurds recognized in Turkey by terrorist organizations remains one of the main unresolved problems in Turkish-American relations.
On the eve of the meeting the Turkish and Russian presidents
August 9 and G-20 summit in September in Hangzhou attracts attention and the China factor. The intensification of Turkish-Chinese contacts observed in completely different areas — from partnerships between the research centers of two countries to large-scale cultural and economic projects such as the “silk road”, the participation of Chinese companies in tenders for the supply of weapons and construction of nuclear power plants in Turkey. China and Turkey are competing in Africa, and China for Turkish “bridge” in the Islamic world of Africa can be not superfluous. Particularly noteworthy and optimistic forecasts of experts regarding the prospects for joint development of new markets, particularly Latin America.
Despite the existence of real prerequisites for the formation of new regional alliances, it is important to understand that their possible appearance is due, rather, geopolitical expediency than ideological proximity. In a more detailed study of national peculiarities of Eurasianism becomes apparent that they are much more competing than the consolidating elements. It is unclear, for example, that can be the total of the Turkish Eurasianism is largely based on the ideas of pan-Turkism and traditional Islam, Russian Eurasianism, representing extremely Orthodox religion with the Russian ethnos in the head. Dugin himself, by the way, now holds the position of editor-in-chief of the ultra-conservative Orthodox channel with the sonorous name “Constantinople-TV, part of the media holding of the Russian Orthodox Church and unequivocally indicating an expected range of influence of the Orthodox world, led by Moscow. In fact, the only common Foundation of the ideology of Dugin and political forces of Turkey (both right and left spectrum) today is their obvious anti-Western orientation.
Direct evidence of this is contained in the works of Alexander Dugin. For example, in his book “Axis of Ankara—Moscow”, he noted: “it is significant that anti-Americanism have combined three morally different, sometimes antagonistic forces of Turkish society: leftists, nationalists and representatives of religious circles. Such a wide range shows that Eurasianism in Turkey is enormous potential far beyond the level of any single political force or party.” In a later article, “the Eurasian strategy of Turkey,” he said the list of potential partners: “Eurasianism [in Turkey] have shown interest in completely opposite forces — right-wing nationalists, centrists, some religious circles, a segment of the military leadership, intellectual foundations, such as the Fund Yasawi, the movement “Platform Dialogue Eurasia”, the economic structures such as the Eurasian Forum Arcana Suvera, the Eurasian Department of the chamber of Commerce of Turkey, the organization of Eurasian cooperation of Russia and Turkey to RUTAM, nonconformist magazine “Erin” etc.”. It is interesting, incidentally, that this article, published in the summer of 2013 (i.e. shortly before the beginning of the active struggle of the Erdogan government with the structures of F. Gulen, the Gulen Dugin calls “Platform Dialogue Eurasia” one of the potential partners for the Russian Eurasians.
Even a cursory analysis of the works of the Russian “geopolitics” clearly shows the context in which he sees the development of ideas of Eurasianism in Turkey. To use his own words, “in each case, the framing of the [Turkish] Eurasian peculiar, but the direction is clear: Ankara is actively looking for a response to the challenges of a new geopolitical system that refuses unambiguous Atlanticist choice, turns the old anti-Russian scenarios, looking for a new understanding of their place in the regional balance of power and looks at the new Eurasia through new eyes.” No wonder, therefore, that all the main publications of A. Dugin, is devoted to problems of Russian-Turkish cooperation through the prism of the ideas of Eurasianism have the peaks of anti-American sentiment in Turkey 2003-2004 (the war in Iraq and the refusal of the Turkish leadership to provide a base in Incirlik in the use of the U.S. air force); 2013 (Gezi protests and the surge of anti-Western sentiments among supporters of the government, claiming that the attempt to destabilize the country is the handiwork of the United States, Israel and Germany) finally 2016 (growth of euroscepticism and the aggravation of Turkish-American relations against the background of differences over the Kurdish issue, war in Syria, the extradition of gülen).
Thus, the main ideological preconditions for registration of a “Eurasian Union” between Russia and the TR can be anti-Americanism, “Eurasianism” as an alternative to “Euro-Atlanticism” and calls for the reformatting of “outdated world order” headed by the United States on the basis of the principles of multipolarity, taking into account the interests of regional powers and under the slogan of preservation of some of their “identity”. Of course, to exaggerate the prospects of the occurrence of such unions is not necessary. In spite of that, Turkey remains a NATO member, and its withdrawal from the Alliance now is not even discussed. Is NATO still remains the main anchor holding Turkey in the field of Western civilization and Euro-Atlantic security structures, even when the irritability of the Turkish policy guidance to EU and USA reaches all-time highs. On the other hand, it’s possible the gradual clearance of the coalition of “economic” format, consisting of three key Eurasian powers — Russia, Turkey and China. In the future, the proposed Dugin “the axis Moscow—Ankara” has the potential to turn into an “arc” — with the active involvement of Beijing. According to experts, the results of the summit Big twenty may sound like a very interesting application.
For Ukraine the same trend for the convergence of key geopolitical players represent the emergence of a new regional environment. The main issue in this context is the future of the Crimean Peninsula, which, as conceived by Dugin, was to take the place of one of the cornerstones in the structure now emerging “Eurasian arc”. Of course, Turkey will never recognize Crimea as Russian, but A. Dugin, the son of the General of the GRU of the General staff of the USSR, adviser to V. Surkov and Sergei Naryshkin and a member of various Advisory councils of the Kremlin is unlikely to stop. The preacher pan-Slavic fascism will continue to build his “arc” even if it should be “kill, kill and kill again”.
author Sergey Korsun Doctor of physico-mathematical Sciences, extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador of Ukraine to the Republic of Turkey.
