Ministers monetarists found a way to tear off three skins from the poor
Oddly enough, even the approaching elections to the state Duma does not motivate the ruling party to portray the appearance of propriety in the eyes of the electorate. As it became known that inflation in Russia in June in annual terms amounted to 7.5%.
Despite the fact that a year earlier, the Finance Ministry predicted growth of prices in Russia in 2016 at a level not more than 6%. To be fair, the month-on-month growth of prices in June remained the same as in may and April of 0.4%. The cost of the minimum set of food products per month on average in Russia amounted to 3816 rubles. That is, increased compared to the previous month by 2.1%, or 76.6 ruble. Since the beginning of year the grocery basket has risen in rostovskie of 6.7%.
More expensive minimum food set in June got iteam in Chukotka (9264,2 rubles), Magadan region (6927,1 rubles), the Kamchatka Krai (RUB 6387,4), in Yakutia (6290,8 RUB). The value set in Moscow amounted to 4631,7 of the ruble in the past month and increased by 1.6% (year — on 9,3%), in St. Petersburg — 4561,5 of the ruble and increased by 1.1% (YTD — by 7.1%).
In June of cereals and legumes among the most noticeable has risen in price buckwheat — by 5.6%. Potato prices rose by 30.1%, beet — by 18.3%, carrots — by 6.7%, onion — 5.2%, garlic — by 2.1%.
Its contribution to price the race made the Russian housing and communal services, which on 1 July made a billing of public utilities bills.
— For the Russian state inflation is the most affordable method of taxation of the poorest, — said the President of “Union of businessmen and tenants of Russia Andrei Bunich. – This is a tax on the poorest. Let the government tell tales that fighting inflation, they don’t give anybody money. On the contrary, they are very actively distributing, but only to her. There are close structures, which get them almost at zero percent. Then they give them out to my dosham”.
Everyone else, whose incomes are fixed (e.g., state employees), are among the losers. As the authorities are trying to hobble inflation, one good example is pensions, which the government refuses to index its real value. In principle, inflation can easily bring it down to zero — if you stop paying people money.
“SP”: — It resembles “energoaparatura” in Ukraine — due to the complete degradation of industrial sectors…
— Absolutely. The problem is the total monopolization of the economy, what area or take — officials “at the request of workers” wind tariffs.
“SP”: — the Owners of numerous companies rasterbate RAO UES, saying that they need investment.
— This is my life — the privatization of profits, nationalization of losses. Now imagine how many similar structures not only in generation but in distribution. The final product to the consumer through a system of housing and communal services comes through a system of intermediaries.
It turns out a giant flywheel, with rise to inflation. For power is good — the less comes funds to the people. Of course, during the election period have to keep the prices down for political reasons.
“SP”: — Therefore sometimes there are “miracles on bends”?
— Yes, when we say that inflation has decreased. For example, in June inflation in annual expression is 7-7,5%. It is difficult to characterize as a success, even against the background of recent years. For example, 4-5 years ago, inflation fell below. But no recovery in the economy was observed. Then the ruble devalued by more than two times.
There is no guarantee that the authorities by year-end, again not enough money. Accordingly, the course again will collapse, inflation will rise. And the eternal struggle with the consequences of their actions will continue.
That’s why I don’t see prerequisites for reducing inflation with the current economic policy.
“SP”: — What are the consequences of inflation, in addition to reducing the real income of the population?
In particular, the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank. In addition, the Central Bank generated inflation through other mechanisms. So, VEB received the next tranche of subsidies from the budget to 35.7 billion rubles for compensation of part of expenses on execution in 2016 liabilities on external borrowings on the capital markets.
Involved and other mechanisms through lowering of the requirements to capital adequacy (fractional reserve banking), risk assessment and collateral.
Weakening the requirements, it is possible to generate such amounts in banks that are unsecured. But they sostavljajut huge capital of government closest to real people. Because of this, expensive assets that remain unaffordable housing prices. A trust Fund of a senior official of the government is buying 10 apartments in a luxury high-rise.
This story accidentally “lit up” in the media. Now imagine how much a similar investment in the “yo” was made. After all, our government, and credendum with her business, you need to do something with such free money.
“SP”: — This not only leads to the impoverishment of the population, but also to job demotivation.
— Of course, people are not interested to work for peanuts. On the other hand, why should the entrepreneur take the risk if he sees 200-300 people in the country getting fat on unearned income. The deformation of social conditions. In addition, the business there is no marketing of the niche to the notorious import substitution.
In this situation, the country cannot count on a decent growth rate. Inflation will heat up, then to down before the election. This has happened in the last 25 years.
This is reminiscent of the struggle known insane literary character with windmills. However, in this case “fighters” clearly selonmerty. Inflation has a monetary nature. Lack of cheap long-term loans results in rising prices for end products. In our country the rise in prices is mainly monopolistic.
In all stages of production, distribution and trade, there are structures associated with power, which can freely raise prices. If the regional or sectoral group is not posed in terms of competition (i.e., no limitation), it is naive to expect that it will not increase the price. How much can you squeeze money from the population, so many squeezes.
There is another important point — inflation subject to structural changes. There are so-called products of Giffen. According to the classical theory — the decrease of demand leads to increased supply. And Vice versa. But Giffen goods behave differently. It is a cheap goods of daily consumption. For example, you bought 10 kg of potatoes and 10 pounds of fruit. In conditions, when money became less, you will no longer buy fruits, and buy even more potatoes. In this case, the potatoes will become more expensive. It turns out the situation when supply and demand do not interact as in the usual theory.
Part of the quality of consumption just displaced. In place of the fruit and vegetables come cheap cereals and other food products. Because people have shifted to this segment. Is not, in General, people can’t. From strawberries and raspberries can be waived, but not of the nutritious carbohydrates. The same goes for cigarettes and vodka.
Our consumption is shifting “in the area of Giffen”, that is, a cheap low-quality segment. And since the wholesale managers we are charged with the monopoly, the price of the ride up to the infinite level. To make the most of the impoverished population the last crumbs.
According to the head of the Department of political economy REU them. G. V. Plekhanov Ruslan Dzarasov, the fundamental cause of rising prices is the neoliberal course of economic block of the government.
The immediate cause of the inflation surge that we have seen, advocates the rapid depreciation of the ruble. Which automatically led to the high cost of imported goods. And brought the considerable contribution to cost inflation. By purchasing the twice as expensive imported equipment. And we buy abroad, at least, 95% of Park of machines and equipment.
“SP”: — it Turns out that success in the agricultural industry are not associated with import substitution.
— Of course, the same automatic milking will be incorporated in the final price of products. Although agriculture is one of the few sectors that benefited from the collapse of the ruble. But even an Apple orchard for three years will not grow. A seed Fund is necessary to buy abroad.
Even for the most susceptible to import substitution agriculture needs huge investments, the rise in agricultural engineering. Control over electricity tariffs, bringing order to monopolized the market of combustive-lubricating materials, the prices of which are growing at a frantic pace. Even the most successful farmers complain that it is difficult to find access to the market. Imposed uncomfortable stalls, are forced to pay the additional trading services that only ruin the farmers.
The same applies to transnational trade networks, which are presented almost as good. They all hook or by crook, put on their shelves the products of the foreign manufacturer. The share of imports on our market remains high.
“SP”: — What contribution to the overall picture make indirect taxes — excise duties, fees?
The hearing system of charging vehicles under the name “Plato”. The deputies in the first reading adopted the draft law on tax preferences for transport tax-payers in this system. And any correlation of the relevant payments into the budget and expenses of the owner for the purchase of gasoline does not exist.
“SP”: — That is, various excise taxes and fees fuel inflation?
— No doubt. But the main prerequisite for the growth is that we have the means of production in the post-reform years was almost destroyed. The structure of the economy has changed in favor of the extractive industries, as well as energy exports and production with a low degree of redistribution of raw materials.
This gives rise to financial instability during the global economic crisis when commodity prices fall. This creates the prerequisite for the depreciation of the ruble. And neoliberal economic policies not only able to withstand such a structural degradation of the economy, but, on the contrary, enhances it.
“SP”: — How do you assess the decision of the Central Bank to increase the key rate?
Formally it is presented as an attempt to curb inflation and currency speculation. Maybe it will have a short-term effect. But in the long term, increased costs to attract credit resources make it difficult for industrial recovery. As a result, inflationary pressure on the economy will only increase and will lead to the fall of the ruble. That is, the short-term benefits exchanged for a long-term strategy.
In a recession it is necessary to introduce money into the economy not through financial and speculative structure (which will play in the foreign exchange market and strengthen our problem, government spending and maintaining the purchasing power of the population. Then will be the effect of output growth to reduce inflationary pressures. We need govoreniya in infrastructure projects.
But you need to build a real model when in government investment competing not 2-3 “king’s order”, and much more. What the liberals say (we have an ineffective state, to pay all the privateers) is speculation on the same issues that they have created.
In addition, necessary and strict measures on the movement of capital. Want to move big money abroad, imagine the regulator documents that you plan to spend (bargain, purchase of unique equipment). That is the audit chamber, the Prosecutor, the Supervisory authorities of the Ministry of Finance. In the end, you have to fight corruption and not to engage in its simulation.
“SP”: — whether the share of deceit in the official growth estimate of prices?
— In fact, “measure the average temperature in the hospital”. I understand that in the mass consumer basket cost of the engines Boeing is not included. It is clear that officials calculate the price increase to understate. The range of goods for which it calculates the consumer price index, include and luxury items
“SP”: — One of our high official bought a Rolls-Royce Phantom EWB, $ 40 million RUB. I Think 99% of the population deeply care about the price of high-class cars.
The fact is that for luxury goods, the price increases much slower than for goods of daily demand. In the same list gold products. Other people don’t gets, so its financial cost is not affected. Last year the official inflation was 13%, but “social inflation” (rising prices for goods that people buy often under 40%. In 2015, real incomes fell by about 10%. This is the evidence that the market is shrinking and production is falling. Inflation in such conditions can only increase.
