The Pension Fund deficit does not allow for a second indexation of pensions in 2016. And meanwhile, the law dictates that payments to pensioners should rise in proportion to inflation. If we talk about the second half of 2016, the average increase for a single pensioner would have amounted to a thousand rubles per month. But there is no money. The government held a meeting about this sudden opening, and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced: indexing will not, and will lump sum. Professor at the Higher school of Economics in Saint-Petersburg Andrei Zaostrovtsev said “Fontanka”, and in January next year the state will make 5 thousand rubles richer.
– Andrei Pavlovich, the government has promised pensioners a lump sum – 5 thousand rubles. Well, isn’t it?
– I’ll get one too. Although I do not know: working pensioners receive? Because during indexing, it is only for idle.
– No, it’s not indexing, therefore, promise to give everything.
– What a joy! It will enrich me.
– What caused this attraction of unprecedented generosity?
– Elections!
– Does not work. Elections in September, and the money promised in January. Is there love on credit?
– So in fact already declared that will give money. And the main thing – to declare. Let the payoff will come later, but they will. That is a little bit to soften the attitude of the pensioners to the government. Just why announce now in advance.
– For the indexation, the government estimated it would take 270 billion rubles. On payment of 43 million pensioners and 5 thousand have 215 billion. The amounts are comparable. Why did not carry out the indexing? People went to the polls already excited.
– A lump-sum payment assumes savings in the future. Indexing would have provided a pension increase is constant. Then the next indexation would be calculated from the new amount, increased. And then once paid. In the future the index if they do, then from a lower level. This saves the state finances for the future. So here just everything is clear.
Are all slandering our government that it is about the future not thinking. And they see – I think.
– Now they think more about the day of 18 September 2016.
– Maybe, then from their point of view it would be more economical it is to hold, as expected, indexing, and then to raise the retirement age and to reduce the army of recipients of money?
– The retirement age is a much more radical solution. While it is out of the question. And I think until 2018 not gonna happen. However, now say that the presidential elections could be held earlier. Well, I think before the presidential elections, no changes are expected. But are such steps, as we have already seen. What, for example, already happened? Took away people’s retirement savings. Gave me, by the way, because the money went including to current retirees.
– You want to say that, freezing the cumulative part of the pension, the government took money from me and gave it to you?
– Absolutely.
– Then I do not mind.
– I on your place would be a pity. The money you are essentially confiscated. Imagine that you folded the money for retirement savings accounts, and now you took them.
– To us explained that they took “revile” and then, when we retire, everything will return.
Yes, Yes, return the points… If the 45 year-old, for example, to take the money and promise to 60 years will return some points… by the Way, the big question – who will be responsible for these obligations.
– Tell me, how the government calculated the amount of the lump sum – 5 thousand rubles?
– Good amount. Three thousand seems to be a little, ten a lot. Apparently, I watched how much can be borrowed from the Reserve Fund. There is another potbelly – the national welfare Fund. He pulled only partially. If you look at the official documents, it just exists to cover the deficit of the pension system. Here there apparently will take.
– The magic sum – 5 thousand rubles – for the last few days I have heard two times. “Levada-center” conducted a survey and found that a quarter of voters are ready to vote to sell for money. And the most popular amount was 5 thousand rubles. What does it mean?
– This means that the voice is also a product, people understand that the goods they have, and ready to sell. Because for them their vote means nothing. But if there is someone for whom it means something, it is possible for it to sell. That is to say, you have some unnecessary thing – and then someone wanted to buy it.
“To sell something unnecessary, you must first buy something unnecessary”.
– And then the thing is already there, no need to buy and can sell.
– Then tell me why only a quarter of respondents? Why not more?
– I think people are a little…
– Cunning?
– Was embarrassed to answer this question. Not to say that they gave true answers. In such cases it is necessary to make experiments with real votes and real money.
– Is that expensive. We won, you already know that some pensioners, if 5 thousand, it is necessary 215 billion.
– It’s not that expensive, and that such an experiment would violate the criminal code. But, for example, in Germany we have a similar experiment, the question was: for how much you are willing to not go to the polls. However, he was held among the students. But agreed for the money to go to the polls just a few people. And that’s where this experiment is also criticized: they say it’s a game. I do not believe in such experiments in the social environment. Here biologists conduct with animals is okay because animals do not distinguish the game from reality. And people still differ. Even in Russia. And he understands that to play with him. Although, of course, we have the reality of this was when people were paid in the elections.
– Not five thousand.
– Yes, this amount apparently was called in Moscow. It is clear that for any city in the Saratov region…
– There are regional discounts.
Yes, the amounts could differ by several times. But the survey “Levada-center” interesting. I’ve been waiting for something like this.
– What if we people have offered money to not go to the polls?
– Probably a significant number of people would agree. But the man often goes to the polls not for commercial reasons. I mean commercial considerations in the sense that the vote for the Deputy who promised, say, to increase pension. And there are non-commercial motives: I’m going to vote for party X, even though I know that she did not Shine, but I’m going to spit the party Y. So I can Express. This model is called: voting as expression.
– Such people, apparently, from the money he refused.
Or they have to pay very much. There is another model. But it works if the elections are honest.
Said that these elections will be the most honest. That’s right honest will not.
– Then you can go to the stadium or to the races: for the sake of interest. Once back in 1990-e years, sociologists have asked people why they voted for one, all of us now very well known politician who since in the Duma. And one young man responded brilliantly: you want, say, to see how much of the country the same fools like me. This is also a very common model: voting as a game.
– They have bet?
– : Bet. Such a bet that money will not bring, but interesting.
– Why do we even have elections?
Is not only our model, all over the world.
But we have something special, we have our own way.
– Yes, we are special. And we have a special election.
So no need for any election! So much money could be saved and people just give…
– Well, we still Emperor, son of heaven, no. It is the source of legitimacy, external and internal. Legitimacy – legality does not mean that we must show that this percentage came in and voted for someone beloved.
– Expensive work.
– What to do? The government, like all good things, requires the cost of their maintenance. Not only Asgardia need, it is also necessary to carry out such activities. This mutually complementary benefits – and at the same time are interchangeable: the more legitimacy the less Regardie. And Vice versa. You can not sit only on force and repression, it is necessary that people came and voted.
– You said that the election of the President can not pass in 2018 and before. Why?
– If there is a deteriorating economic situation, the President can shift to an earlier date.
What do you mean “if”? And now what does she do?
While she hovered at the same level. She slides slowly, like a brick from the roof: sometimes tripped over some branch, stop and stand still. This “slipping” may be a pause, during these pauses can occur even some improvement. Now a little bit stabilized the ruble. One month later, in July, there was even such a thing as deflation. This we had never had. But we’re looking at the future. And there’s a lot of questions.
– What we’re experiencing deflation?
– Cut costs. The salaries of state employees do not index pensions last year were indexed by 4 percent, although inflation was 12.9 percent. That is, government spending shrinks. It’s a competent politician. Plus – high interest rates of the Central Bank, tight monetary policy, strict fiscal policy. But our pods, reserve funds, according to the most optimistic forecasts, will end in 2018. Then have either to cut budgets or increase borrowing. And we have already gone quite a significant increase in government borrowing to cover the deficit, the greater part is covered by increasing the national debt.
– That is in our economy now and there are periods when everything is going well. How to turn this into a trend?
– The tendency is to turn impossible. Because we have a fundamental basis of Economics that will not develop. A pause in the slide down to happen depend on the situation. The increased price of oil, for example. But… was this advertisement: “You can change yourself.” So Russia cannot change itself.
– China cannot be an example to us?
In China the bureaucracy, I would say pragmatic. But China already and exhaled slowly. China will never be a United States scientific, technological leader. Ilona Mask is impossible in China.
Yes we are not going to threaten to Ilonov our Moscow, we would somehow have enough of Norway…
– Norway of us also will not work. In Norway, a very solid institutions. We, I think, would be enough, and Latvia, but this will not work. The fundamentals of the economy which are necessary for development, and we are constantly in conflict with political power. Free business development incompatible with the monopoly on power in the country. And the victim, naturally, was sacrificed to economy. Because power is more important.
