The turbulent election campaign in the US to some extent was eclipsed by a sharp cooling in relations between the Kremlin and the West that occurred this week.
It all started after the US refused to cooperate with Russia in the settlement of the Syrian conflict and declared the necessity to determine whether Russia committed war crimes.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is very poorly understood, sending relations between the two countries in such a tailspin, the likes of which the world has not seen in the last few decades, and the state-controlled Russian media began to actively discuss the theme of war. In this regard, some analysts have suggested that this reaction of Mr. Putin unable to stand other factors.
Mr. Putin has suddenly decided to withdraw from several nuclear agreements, including the prisoner 16 years ago, the Treaty to reduce stockpiles of weapons-grade plutonium, and made a number of unrealistic economic and legal requirements as conditions for the restoration of the nuclear agreement.
It deployed modern anti-aircraft guns in Syria and moved ballistic long-range missiles in the Russian Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad, making it so that American spy satellites could detect a single missile with a nuclear warhead.
After France is also called to determine whether Russia committed war crimes, Mr. Putin canceled his planned visit to Paris.
Finally, the Kremlin has announced that it is considering reopening their military bases in Cuba and Vietnam, and sent 5 thousand of his troops in Egypt to participate in the first joint military exercises over the past few decades.
In Russia about 40 million Russians, 200 thousand of rescue workers — as well as 50 thousand special cars took part in the exercises of civil defense. In one of the most popular weekly news programs on state television again sounded harsh warning, first announced two years ago, that Russia has retained its ability to transform the US into radioactive dust.
“Insolent behavior towards Russia may have nuclear implications,” said the host Dmitry Kiselyov.
So, if Mr. Putin does not actually preparing Russians for the war, then what is he doing? According to analysts, in the international arena, Mr. Putin, apparently, has positioned itself to provide maximum requirements to the next American President and to seek to be treated as equal by other world leaders.
According to analysts, g-n Putin also raises the stakes before the expected resumption of talks on Syria talks, which will start again in one form or another in Lausanne, Switzerland, on Saturday.
However, some commentators in Russia are beginning more and more to suspect that there are other motives for such behavior of Mr. Putin, starting from the need to divert attention from the holes in the Federal budget, and a painful and highly unpopular measures to close them.
“One of the most serious topics are not discussed on television, says Catherine Shulman, a political scientist at the Russian Academy of state service under the President of the Russian Federation. And this is a serious topic — the battle of the budget.”
Russians face rising utility bills, and a new payment for capital repairs of buildings cause them the most dissatisfaction. Government spending on health can reduce by 33%.
After 15 years of sustained increase, even the military budget will annually decrease by 6% over the next three years.
“If you look at this rather gloomy budget, it becomes clear that funds will be spent mainly on the police and the payment of pensions,” said Ms. Shulman.
If to distract from domestic problems, Mr. Putin still hopes to use the Syrian crisis to change Russia’s role in the international arena. Sent his army last year, he initially planned to use this conflict to stabilize the government of President Bashar al-Assad and to expedite the lifting of economic sanctions and isolation of Russia, which the West went over the Ukrainian crisis.
Evident success in stabilizing the regime of Mr. Assad with minimal loss, apparently prompted Mr. Putin to set ourselves more ambitious goals. As soon as the agreement with Washington has failed, Mr. Putin went to win for Mr. Assad’s Aleppo — and no matter what the price is to help Damascus to gain control over certain areas in the West of Syria, which later forced the opposition to settle.
“Russia has the opportunity to achieve it, — says Nikolai Petrov, a political science Professor. — The next American President will face a new reality and be forced to accept it.”
However, on the way to long-term success of Russia is faced with various challenges and that is why she so quickly agreed to new talks on Syria. For example, representatives of the Russian armed forces began to publicly talk about the fact that the Syrian army is an unsuitable ally.
“Over the past year, the Syrian armed forces did not conduct a single successful offensive operations,” wrote Mikhail Khodarenok, a retired Colonel and a respected military analyst who publish their articles on the Russian news site Gazeta.ru. In this article he gave a sharp assessment of corruption and the General weakness of the Syrian armed forces, calling the armed forces from Iran and Hezbollah is no less suspicious.
In addition to Syria, Mr. Putin seeks to rebuild the world order to restore Russia’s great power status, which, from his point of view, belongs to it by right.
“I think the talk about the impending war is a propaganda ploy: Russia wants to show that it is able to go very far, this element of pressure, — said Alexei Makarkin, Deputy head of “Center for political technologies.” — Russia wants another Yalta conference, where together with other great powers it will share the map.”
Wednesday, 12 September, Mr. Putin said: “let us Not forget that globally, we have a special responsibility as the largest nuclear powers, for the maintenance of international peace and security in the global plan.”
Analysts have not taken seriously the talk of new bases in Cuba, Vietnam, and possibly in Egypt, considering them rather manifestations of nostalgia than real opportunities. There is no reason to believe that Russia expected in these countries, in addition, these bases were closed due to the prohibitive cost of their maintenance. Now is not the time to take on the additional burden.
Mr. Putin has managed to awaken the pride of Russians, creating the impression that their country has a lot of weight in the international arena, especially when you consider its place in the American election campaign.
“Once, ten years ago, Russia did not thought and said about Russia and say nothing, because it’s such a minor regional power, and not at all interesting, — said Mr. Putin on October 12. — Now the number one problem in the whole election campaign is about her talking. This, of course, very nice, but only partly”.
Partly because of Russia mentioned mostly in a negative way. In addition, it remains unclear whether the developments in the international arena do to distract ordinary Russians from the deteriorating economic situation.
For the first time since 2000, when Mr. Putin was elected President, the Russians are faced with falling real incomes. According to the October report of the Higher school of Economics, the real monthly income per capita fell to less than $ 500, amounting to only 87% of the level of real income in August 2014.
Wage arrears reached the astronomical sum of $ 56 million, and, according to the Center for political and economic reforms, the number of strikes and demonstrations relating to labor disputes have doubled in the last three months.
Given the fact that the confrontation with Syria is likely to interfere with the lifting of sanctions and the establishment of economic relations, Mr. Putin did what he usually comes in case of confrontation: he raised the stakes.
“I see a certain escalation of rhetoric that, obviously, is our usual method of preparation, — noted Ms. Shulman, comparing the current situation with the scenario of the Ukrainian conflict. — First, there was an escalation, then advice, and then step back. This is, apparently, the usual tactic that obviously works.”
