In principle, the question of what we were doing in Syria that can be answered very simply – fought. And rightly so. But for what did we fight? What was the purpose of this war?
Wars do not happen without goals.
War is not toys that are played just for fun or to kill time. War is serious business, serious costs, and most importantly – a serious risk.
Even if you plan just to Trombetta by the adversary, not possess a serious air defenses – there is still a risk.
In any war, even the most secure at first glance, there is a risk to encounter negative attitudes in society. Pacifists don’t like war, by definition, taxpayers confuse the expenditure side, and “hawks” take out so positive flag over the burning of the Reichstag (Capitol) and on smaller they do not agree.
There are external risks. Geopolitical opponents (for Russia, this is primarily the US) will not miss the opportunity to blame the aggression, the bombing of schools, hospitals, infrastructure and further until war crimes – on that fancy enough.
In short, both internal and external political opponents always try to use the country’s participation in a military conflict for criticism of the government.
All this is most dramatically manifested in the Syrian operation HQs of the Russian Federation.
The state Department has accused Russia of bombing civilian targets and the destruction of “moderate opposition”. The liberal opposition, especially its “Ukrainian wing”, criticized the aggressive policy of Russia (much of the Crimea and Donbass in Syria got). Turkey and does come to a military incident, sanctions and harsh political conflict.
By the way, the Turks downed Russian bomber – vivid proof that the risk of losses in the military operation there is always. Even if the natives did not have air defenses. For the natives can stand up to some of the sponsors. But if the natives will start supplying MANPADS, and don’t have to stand up. And someone else can share complexes BUK, C-200 or a Point-W.
In General, any war – is the cost and the risk. And a great reason for criticism of the government, which necessarily use external and internal opponents.
Free and safe do not go to war
This means that the risk and costs of participation in war must be justified by the decision of some important (geo)political and/or (geo)economic problems.
So just because “nothing to do” in war nobody plays. Participate in wars or to consolidate power, distribution of political influence or to obtain control of resources and territories (mines, trade routes, markets).
As an option – war is not about acquiring something new, but in order not to lose what you have.
Fighting for money and for power.
It happens that the external conflict arrange for the consolidation of power within the country, in order to increase the defense budget. Is war sometimes is for an internal resource.
The purpose of war – resources – power and money, internal and external, their (protect what we have) or wrong (select something from others).
So what Russia was at war in Syria?
For their or someone else’s? For what resource?
Not need again to say that we had to demonstrate the Caliber, high-precision bombs and that’s it.
Showcasing the latest weapons, especially in a real fight – the task of a good, important, but still not the main.
To demonstrate the Calibers and high-precision bombs could do without any group HQs of the Russian Federation on the territory of Syria. Calibres, as we have seen, should run fine from the Caspian sea and the Mediterranean sea, and strategic bombers that take off from the territory of Russia and return to her. The same applies to precision bombs.
Did not require months-long operation involving two dozen stormtroopers for the sake of demonstration Caliber, and precision-guided bombs. Was a few times accurately Trombetta on terrorists (in consultation with Damascus as agreed on with Iran) and the effect of the demonstration of the weapon would have been reached.
Russia, however, for something announced operation to support the Syrian army in the fight against terrorists and placed in Syrian air group that carried out during the operation about 10 thousand sorties and spent a few thousand purposes, and not whenever used precision-guided bombs, conventional worked too.
So for what did we fight? What was the purpose?
Retribution for the attack in Egypt?
This purpose arose already during the operation. Initially it was not. Moreover, the attack in Egypt was the result of Russia’s participation in the Syrian conflict. It turns out that Russia started operation in Syria to the terrorists blew up the plane and you could revenge on them for it?
No, the attack in Egypt and retribution for him, in the episode, but not the initial goal.
The fight against terrorism?
This is a beautiful explanation for the layman, but it does not accurately reflect reality. Syria is in civil war and terror is part of this war. Actually, any civil war is accompanied by terror and mastabah in different forms. A striking example – the war in the South-East of Ukraine.
International terrorism is entirely a product of the intelligence services and militias, state-sponsored. This is the continuation of the policy of some States.
Therefore, the fight against international terrorism is actually against the policy of some States that sponsor this terrorism.
Even terrorism is a convenient smokescreen for military operations. Such cover is regularly used by the United States. A vivid example of terrorism being used to justify the invasion of Afghanistan.
This does not mean that terrorism is not – he is. But it does not arise by itself, is not the cause, it is a consequence, a policy tool of certain States.
Addressing threats on the distant approaches.
The purpose of this operations in Syria we were told the President.
Under “threats” meant the militants (terrorists) who are leaving Russia to fight on the side of ISIS and then return to continue the war in Russia.
In these words is the truth. In case of a victory for ISIL in Syria the spread of the “Islamic state” will continue and will eventually reach Central Asia and the Caucasus. But Russia is absolutely not necessary. What is the consequence of the emergence of militants and weapons in the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus, we know.
But in the words about the fight against ISIL “on distant approaches” only truth about the purpose of the operation HQs of the Russian Federation in Syria.
The threat of destabilization of Central Asia and the Caucasus comes not so much from ISIS, but from sponsors, the founders, the authors of this structure.
10-20 years ago no ISIS did not exist, but Chechen rebels had received support from support and carried out attacks on the territory of Russia.
So ISIS is not the primary source of threat. This is just a modern form of the threat of proliferation of terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism.
Yesterday was al-Qaeda, Taliban, Mujahideen yesterday, today ISIL, tomorrow something else.
The threat to Russia is strengthening positions in the middle East the forces that create and sponsor the terrorism and fundamentalism that aim to take control of Central Asia and the Caucasus – this is a real threat, but ISIS is just one of its manifestations, popular brand.
Support for the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
It is closer to the real objectives of the operation.
Bashar Assad is not only the enemy specific ISIL, but also the enemy of those forces that create and sponsor terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism throughout the middle East and that after the victory in Syria will spread it to Central Asia and the Caucasus.
You can say that the goals of Russia and the objectives of Bashar al-Assad almost completely coincide. Preserving the regime of Bashar al-Assad, Russia will protect yourself from the threat, which tries to struggle on the distant approaches.
Conversely, if the Assad regime falls, the threat of proliferation of terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism in Central Asia and the Caucasus will emerge anyway, with or without ISIS.
But this role of Bashar al-Assad is not limited.
The middle East is very important region.
And Assad is an ally of Russia not only to combat the Islamic state and the spread of Islamic fundamentalism, but also an important geopolitical and geo-economic ally in the region.
In fact, this is the last reliable ally of Russia in the middle East after the elimination by the Americans of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. There is still Iran, but the relationship with him is not very simple.
Roughly speaking, remains in power, Bashar al-Assad – Russia remains an ally in the middle East, and therefore remains the position of the base, the base. Disappears Bashar Assad – Russia is rapidly losing influence in the region.
However, the op does not end there.
Syria is a path for gas from Qatar to Europe.
Qatar is a major gas source. Europe is a large consumer. Today Europe consumes Russian gas, but there is a project for the construction of a gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe via Syria and Turkey. If this project is realized, Russia will lose Europe as a consumer of its gas. In any case, southern Europe will be fully supplied with gas from Qatar.
Russia will lose the European gas market and Qatar it will gain.
That is why Qatar is so actively sponsoring the Syrian opposition. The elimination of Bashar al-Assad will open up opportunities for the construction of the pipeline.
For the same reason Russia is interested in preserving the regime of Bashar al-Assad to block the project “Qatari pipes”.
Though not all experts believe that the Nabucco project is so important to Qatar, that it was necessary to indulge in all serious. But the project pipeline exists, and it is important or not is a separate issue.
It is possible that this gas pipeline project is important not so much to the Qatar, how much for Washington, which consistently promotes the idea of energy independence of Europe, seeing it as independence from Russia.
The gap of economic and energy relations between Russia and Europe is a good way to strengthen the control over each of the parties. Sharing rule is a principle as old as the world.
And if Washington will gain control over Syria, which will be the pipe from Qatar to Europe, this will allow to strengthen control over the Qatar too.
But it’s not all about Russia’s aims in Syria.
Pay attention to the time, when the operation HQs of the Russian Federation.
The operation began in the fall of 2015.
The war in Syria continues for several years, ISIS exists not the first day, but for some reason only started in 2015.
It really didn’t exist before the task “of dealing with threats on the distant approaches”? Or project of a gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe! Or the Assad regime was not threatened?
Was ISIS, was the gas pipeline project, and the fate of Bashar al-Assad has long been hanging in the balance.
But why operation HQs of the Russian Federation in Syria did not begin in 2013, not in 2014, but only in 2015-m to year?
Obviously, something has changed – either in the world or in Russia itself.
Something pushed Russia to begin the operation. What?
To participate in the operation prompted Russia’s internal economic and political situation and events in Ukraine.
In 2015, the year the Russian economy encountered serious problems caused by low efficiency, dependence on world oil prices (which fell), on sanctions and some other factors.
Economic problems were caused by political risks – the population had doubts about the effectiveness of the “party and government” and thinking that we need something to change.
And this is in addition to the unsuccessful development of the conflict in the South-East of Ukraine, which started the “Russian spring”, and ended with the infamous “Minsk conspiracy”, also caused great doubts among the people regarding the leadership of Russia.
In short, Russian society began to doubt that the country is ruled by those who should lead.
The Kremlin urgently needed a “small victorious war”.
Or “small victorious retribution.”
The operation in Syria is a good way to distract the public from domestic economic and political problems to distract from the dire situation in the Donbas and damaged relations with Ukraine.
In a word – distracting.
And then, suddenly, oil will rise, the economy will recover, the Minsk agreement will be executed. Or Ukraine will collapse or will cancel the sanctions or the US President will change or anything else. As they say, or the donkey will die, or Emir dies.
The issue of sanctions:
Success in the middle East, among other things, opened up the prospect of conversation with the US and Europe with new positions. And if the feeding operation as the fight against terrorism and to achieve on the field success, the West simply must oblige, after all, he promotes it.
The Kremlin is expected to take a position of “excellence in the fight against international terrorism”, because according to the logic of the West for the successes in the fight against terrorism relies universal approval, and not the extension of the sanctions.
But that’s not all!
The stabilization of the situation in Syria expected the reduced flow of refugees, which recently suffering Europe in General and Germany in particular. And Angela Merkel should relate to the stabilization of Syria with much gratitude, because it’s salvation and for her politics and for Germany and the entire European Union, which is already starting to come apart at the seams all Schengen.
But for all this, Russia and fought in Syria!
I hope I didn’t forget anything.
Let me sum up:
1. Maintain the position (impact) in the middle East.
2. Save (geo)economic and (geo)political ally.
3. Elimination of the threat of the spread of terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism “on distant approaches”.
4. Blocking the pipe from Qatar to Europe.
5. The strengthening of relations with Iran (through Syria as ally Iran).
6. Elimination of political risks (the consolidation of power by method of a small victorious war).
7. A set of political points at the expense of the position of “excellence in the fight against international terrorism”.
8. The reduced flow of refugees to Europe (Germany).
9. The prospect of lifting the sanctions on the basis of 7 and 8.
It’s also conceivable prospects pressure on Ukraine and the implementation of the Minsk agreements, which would open based on the same political points at the expense of the successful fight against international terrorism and reduce refugee flows to Europe. But this is the corollary.
And demonstration of equipment and armament (Caliber, high-precision bombs, drones, space exploration, and something else) – of course, also important. But it’s still not primary, but incidental purpose. Associated gas, so to speak.
Can be briefly formulated as follows:
Russia fought for a stable Syria and the preservation of the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
Have a stable Syria with Assad – Russia has a position in the middle East, there ally, there is a barrier to terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism “on distant approaches”, there is a success in the fight against terrorism, is the image “excellence in the fight against terrorism,” there are political points, there is a strengthening of the relationship with Europe, there are prospects for lifting the sanctions. And have something to say to his people – that what we have achieved! It was very good! But economic difficulties are temporary and we will survive. There is military success in Syria – you can say “here’s what we can, and in the sorrows of Donbass Kiev’s fault”.
If a stable Syria and Bashar al-Assad not, and not all of the above. But there is the prospect of a gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe and further reduction in income from gas exports with all the consequences.
Russia that succeeds in Syria is a strong player in the international arena, which was another story.
Putin, who achieves victory in Syria – this is the same horse in midstream does not change. Commander-in-chief. And internal problems – they blame the boyars.
Now, for what did we fight!
Who fought?
He fought not with the ISIL militants and the Syrian opposition. Fought with those who are behind them, that is, with Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United States, which are pursuing in Syria is strictly opposing objectives. They need another Syria is more like Iraq. Qatar needs a pipeline to Europe. Turkey need control over the Kurds and again the pipe from Qatar to Europe (through Turkey it will go too), and along the Syrian oil.
Saudi Arabia need to destroy an ally of Iran. The US needs control over the whole Middle East, should finally put the Middle East Russia, to weaken Russia and strengthen control over Europe due to the flooding of the Old world refugees and “Qatari pipes”.
Syria – here is the resource for which the war was.
In Syria converge and the economic and political interests of several countries.
And money and power.
Influence in the region – it is also power, power over the region.
Fought for control of Syria and the region.
Russia was at war with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the USA for control of Syria.
And who won – soon will see.
However, I think it’s clear who won.
