The story that I heard from Ankara via Skype, accompanied by a large noise, was a new and strangely familiar. I was talking to a scientist, a person who believes in freedom and the free market, and he told me about the arrests, detention and shooting of his colleagues. Sahin Alpay (Alpay Sahin), 72-year-old liberal journalist with lots of contacts in Europe. Orhan Kemal Cengiz Orhan Kemal Cengiz, human rights activist and journalist. Ihsan Dagi (Ihsan Dagi, Professor of international relations and theorist of democracy. Kemal Lale (Lale Kemal, a journalist who writes about military issues and security. Were there others.
None of them upheld in July a failed coup, he told me. None of them is “gulenists”, a follower of leading the solitary life of the Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen, a resident of Pennsylvania, whom President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accuses of the attempted coup. Some of them previously published articles in Newspapers owned by gülen supporters, but today they are closed, others didn’t. They also had completely different things: they are all “Democrats” or “liberals” by the standards of Turkey — a category of people whom the Turkish President considers dangerous. Liberals questioned his attacks on the media and the judicial system. The liberals were investigating his corrupt activities. The liberals want to limit the power of the state, which he manages.
Identification and elimination of an entire class of “enemies” is an old totalitarian practice, and this category can be attributed to arrests of people not for what they have done, but for who they are. This is not a sign of strength. On the contrary, the dictators, who are afraid of or prone to paranoia when they feel isolated when they fear that their surrounding sycophants can carry secret plans for their overthrow. They use violence because they are afraid of losing support.
Dictators who fear their enemies, trying to find allies. However, they do not want to have such allies who will criticize what they do — either vocally or through example. So after a failed coup and the successful suppression of opponents of Erdogan, of course, was to seek to communicate with Vladimir Putin, the Russian President. This week in St. Petersburg, the objects of the environment on the Breakfast of these two men consisted of porcelain plates with their portraits.
At least while the method of suppression of Putin differs from the strategy of Erdogan. Instead of mass arrests, it uses targeted violence. Intimidation of journalists makes it so that one of them from time to time to kill, but to intimidate the oligarchs he puts one of them in prison for ten years. He controls the economy through a system of cronyism and kickbacks, and all this comes in breathtaking scale.
But, like Erdogan, Putin needs the company. Both of them are distinguished by a paranoid fear — they are afraid of enemies whom they cannot see. They both realize that a significant portion of the population doesn’t like them. They both realize that scientists and intellectuals are arrested in Ankara or in the siege in Moscow, will be always to resist them, even if their power will be silenced. Both understand that the biggest threat to their personal power comes from ideas and principles those men represent, and it is not only about democracy but about the rule of law, judicial independence, freedom of the press, human rights.
The two were almost at war with each other just a few months ago. In November of last year the Turks have shot down a Russian aircraft invading their airspace; these two countries are in diametrically opposite positions in the Syrian conflict. Many of the leaders of NATO feared that Turkey might draw them into open war.
Geo-strategic, military and historical calculations have to do Turkey and Russia antagonists. However, their meeting is indicative of something that is difficult to understand for many Western politicians and “realistic” thinkers — those ideas and ideology will sooner or later fade into the background and the trump card is “interest”. If Turkey continued to be a democracy, Erdogan would appeal to his Western allies to help him push back Russia. However, the contact with the West also means that contact with Western ideas. Dependence on the West is dependent on the States that believe in legislation that Erdogan wants to suppress the dependence on States in a position to support those people, which Erdogan wants to hide in prison.
We may rationalize anything, we can say that in this cynical world, the United States and Europe should pursue the goal of real-politics and financial interests. We can say that the nature of the supported modes does not matter that cold calculation must determine our foreign policy. But when the situation really becomes serious, the dictators, first of all, choose the other dictators. Democrats should pay attention to it.
