Over the past decade the US intelligence services operating in Turkey, worked closely with the gaining influence of the parallel government of Fethullah Gulen. Their approach towards the authorities — until recently — was in the implementation strategy of their own people in all structures with the purpose of stealth, a gradual capture of the command positions of political, economic, administrative, law enforcement, military and cultural structures, as well as in the media without resorting to elections or military coups. They employed flexible tactics, supporting and covering different allies and eliminating enemies.
In 2010, supporting Erdogan, they played a major role in the arrests and cleaning three hundred Kemalist — military officials. And after that humanity started the persecution and weakening of the regime of Erdogan, spreading in mass media obtained their intelligence information about the corruption of his family.
In a number of areas humanity in pursuing their policy, together with Washington, with the approval refers to a “convergence”, which led to the coup on 15 July 2016.
Gulenist supported the us-Israeli policy in the middle East, advocated Pro-Western “free-market” economic policies, consenting to work with the Kurds Americans, rejected any agreement with the Russians.
In other words, in the vast Middle East humanity was much more reliable than the Erdogan regime; they were more vulnerable and subordinated to the diktat of the EU-NATO-USA.
Erdogan knew about the rising power of gulenists and on expanding and strengthening ties with Washington. He has acted decisively and successfully, to prevent the seizure of power by gulenists, forcing them to go into premature and ill-considered coup.
Power block Erdogan defeated gulenists
Humanity was a powerful force in the Turkish state and civil society, broadly represented among the civil bureaucracy, media and educational institutions, among the technocrats in the financial sector. Nevertheless, they were defeated in less than twenty-four hours, because Erdogan has several strong features.
First of all, (Turkey — ed.) no political leaders equal to Erdogan, in regard to the strategy of retaining power and the availability of powerful and active mass electoral base. Nothing like gulenists was not.
Erdogan was excellent intelligence and military commanders who infiltrated the environment of gulenists and conducted his subversive activities. Humanity was not ready for a violent confrontation.
Golenitskaya strategy “implementation” proved to be unsuitable and completely unsuitable for the seizure of power and the mobilization of the “street”.
They lacked the personnel and organized grassroots structures, which Erdogan has built from the bottom up during the previous two decades.
Based on the interests within the country and beyond the Islamist-nationalist strategy Erdogan has far exceeded based on the interests within the country Pro-American liberal strategy of gulenists.
American failures during the coup
Humanity depended on support from the United States, which is totally miscalculated in the assessment of relationships within power structures and misinterpreted the ability Erdogan to forestall a coup.
The main flaw of American advisers began their ignorance on the issue of the Turkish political equation: they underestimated the superiority of the party of Erdogan, his support from both the electorate and the masses. The CIA overestimated support gulenists in the environment of institutional structures and elite had underestimated their isolation within the Turkish society.
Moreover, the us military had the slightest idea about the parameters of Turkish political culture — in particular, the rejection by the General population to the idea and practice of military burokraticheskogo seizure of power. They were not able to recognize the fact that anti-coup forces included political parties and social movements with a critical eye toward Erdogan.
American strategists have based the calculations of the coup on their incorrect assessment of the military coups in Egypt, Libya, Iraq and Yemen. The coups demolished the nationalist and Islamist civil regimes.
Erdogan was not vulnerable in the same way as the former President of Egypt Mohamed Morsi — he controlled the intelligence, military and had the support of the masses.
Us-golenitskaya military-intelligence strategy was poorly planned, poorly coordinated and failed. The counter Erdogan has imposed his will, caused a strong swift strokes that demoralized gulenists super-structure. Thousands of supporters poured clay pigeons.
Americans forced to go on the defensive. The rapid elimination of their supporters have forced the United States to renounce its allies to retreat to the position of an ordinary, unconvincing criticism of Erdogan from the standpoint of “humanitarian” considerations and interests of “security”. They claim that Erdogan cleaning may weaken the fight against ISIS*, have no reaction within Turkey. Accusations from Washington that during the arrests the arrested and badly treated that they have suffered, have not conceived any action.
The key political fact is that the United States supported the rebellion, whose members took up arms and sow death in the ranks of Erdogan loyalists and among innocent civilians opposed to the coup. This fact undermines any feeble protests from Washington.
In the end, the US even refused to grant refugee status to his gulenist-General, leaving his fate to the mercy of Erdogan. And that Fethullah Gulen has remained under the protection of his supervisors at the state Department and avoided extradition.
The consequences of the us-golenishchevo coup
The failure of Washington’s attempts to unseat Erdoghan may have an incredible echo around the Middle East, in Western Europe and in the United States.
Erdogan gave the order to surround a strategic NATO airbase at Incirlik seven thousand Turkish soldiers. It is an act of intimidation, threatening to undermine the functioning of the leading strategic nuclear facility NATO, which is the operational center for combating Syria, Iraq and Russia.
The members of the Turkish intelligence and Cabinet officials questioning the current political alliances, openly accusing the us military with treason for their role in the coup.
Erdogan has made efforts to normalize relations with Russia and moved away from the European Union.
If Turkey will reduce the level of its relations with NATO, the US could lose its strategic ally on the southern flank of Russia and significantly weaken its ability to dominate in Syria and Iraq.
The leverage of Washington, Turkey has been significantly weakened because of the decimation golenetskii base in civilian and military organizations.
To “anchor” its policy in the region, Washington may have to rely on anemic, fragile and servile SYRIZA — mode Tsipras in Greece.
The failed coup indicates a major retreat of Washington from the region and maybe the nomination ahead of Syria, Iran, Lebanon and Russia.
However, there are two caveats. After Erdogan “will complete” its cleaning of gulenists and condemn Washington, he’ll want and be able to conduct a new, independent policy or it will simply tighten internal controls and “re-negotiate” the agreement with NATO?
Whether Erdogan consolidates political control over the army or the defeat of gulenists will be a temporary result that will lead to the emergence of new factions among the military that destabilizie political regime?
And finally. Erdogan is dependent on Western Finance and investment, who did not want to support a regime that criticizes US, EU and NATO. If Erdogan will face economic pressure from the West, it will unfold in some other way or, in light of the capitalist “realities”, will back down and accept?
Erdogan temporarily, maybe, and won the American coup. But history teaches us that military, political and economic interventions still remain on the agenda of Washington.
* Islamic state (ISIS, ISIL) is a terrorist organization and prohibited in Russia by the decision of the Supreme court dated 29.12.2014.
