Russia was in a situation when is not very clear what the citizens really – that explains the sudden desire of many Russians to buy tours to Turkish resorts.
Such opinion in interview of RIA “New Day” was expressed by doctor of historical Sciences, head of Department of public relations of MGIMO Valery Solovey.
Show completely… According to him, the unpredictability of public opinion can affect the outcome of the elections to the state Duma in 2016 – especially in a falling rating “an United Russia” and the adverse socio-ekonomicheskoy situation.
“New Day”: Valery, why do so many Russian citizens decided to buy tours to Turkey, though a few months ago, actively supported the idea that Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the enemy of our country?
Valery Solovey: This is the case when there is a huge gap between propaganda and the real sentiments of the people. The fact that now people are afraid to speak the truth – they give socially acceptable answers. Accordingly, their response to propaganda stimuli, sleduyushee: “of Course, we agree, Turkey is a terrible thing, staying there is dangerous, tomatoes, glass, Turkish men obsessive, but Erdogan is the enemy”. They say this because I see a propaganda message that makes them, but they think completely different.
From this case you need to make far-reaching conclusions. We constantly hear from the sociologists across all channels, from the official elites, that the people rallied and all approve. But it seems that it is not. Maybe it was two years ago, but not now. People give the answers they want to hear from them, but I think quite different.
Now occurs a dramatic decline in the rating of “United Russia” in the Central Russian regions starting this summer, every month drops to 5 points. Although outwardly it looks decently, but the results can be very disappointing. To get some of the planned results of the elections, will have to provide strong administrative pressure or to resort to direct falsifications, which the government would like to avoid. On the top level of government know that if very much pressure, it can cause strong resentment in the Kremlin fear a repeat of the unrest of 2011-2012.
We were in a situation when is not very clear what people really think, because they do not dare to speak, opportunities for open expression of their opinions they have. This opportunity could provide a fair competitive elections, but I doubt very much that they will so. And most importantly – it may be that the formula that we adopt, the notorious 86% (support of the head of state), may be misleading.
“New Day”: since we’re talking about elections – how You consider, whether Moscow’s decision on the rehabilitation of Turkey to be linked to the parliamentary campaign? Perhaps part of the electorate will be satisfied with the opportunity to travel to the once-popular resorts…
Valery Solovey: most Likely, views on Turkey were connected with the geopolitical situation in Syria. First, in this case, Russia needs some kind of interaction with Turkey, and Turkey with Russia.
Second. The signal that it would be nice to normalize relations with Turkey, the Russian side sounded two or three months ago. But everyone knew that the ultimate decision rests with the President of Russia. Why he took this decision just now and not a month sooner or later is the question for him, it is a combination of circumstances, about which we know nothing.
Consideration about the elections makes sense, but I’m not sure that it was paramount. Honestly, it’s not in the Russian tradition of statist – think about contentment or discontent of the people. If I thought about contentment, not forbidden at least the Turkish vegetables and fruits, because the alternatives were much more expensive, and the price tags in stores is clearly visible.
“New Day”: do You think that before the election the rate of “United Russia” is still on the social agenda or another geopolitical game?
Valery Solovey: to focus on social agenda (“United Russia”) is very difficult because the situation is unfavourable and deteriorating, and therefore reduced the rating. I think, firstly, would bet on Putin’s supporting party, you support the President.”
Secondly, of course, foreign policy issues still to be drawn – as the country is surrounded by enemies, we should unite and show unity.
And, thirdly, to apply the reception of a frightening alternative: if we don’t, it will be even worse – see what is happening in Ukraine. I think the third paragraph will be the core agenda of the election authorities.
“New Day”: In Your opinion, the situation with Turkey, which we first declare the enemy, and then suddenly rehabilitate – should we expect similar decisions in the coming year in relation to other countries?
Valery Solovey: I think that is the last case. In General, we consider two enemies – NATO and the West. As for specific countries – I don’t think we really going to allocate them. If and will, it is not so intensive and extensive as in the case of Turkey.
The trouble with this story is the following: the government explained why she started the anti-Turkish campaign, it was clear. And that is why sharply declined is unclear. It was obvious confusion propagandists, all the TV talking heads a few days they were confused as to what to tell them. We are the kind of things must produce, and, frankly, it’s very similar to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact – yesterday Germany was our enemy, and then suddenly – brothers in arms. This analogy may be too strong, but it is still relevant. It is necessary to explain: the power of public opinion ignores or accepts within a very narrow range.
