Striking out from the Tehran “axis of evil” as a bonus for giving up its nuclear program, the US is using Iran in the middle East arena as a fully fledged player for the implementation borrowed from Roman Imperial strategy of “divide and conquer”.
Speaking at the Washington nuclear security summit, PresidentBarack Obama stated that Washington is not opposed to Iran contracts were denominated not only in dollars, but in euros. The latest manifestation of the favor of the US administration to Iran, for sure, was very painfully perceived by the Saudis, who are jealously watching each display location to its main rival from the Americans.
Especially considering that shortly before that, the head of the US administration made several unflattering statements in the address of Riyadh. We are talking about the sensational article “the Obama Doctrine”, which was published in the magazine The Atlantic Magazine. In this article quoted extracts from the speeches of the President, which criticized the policy of the government of Saudi Arabia. As noted in one of the statements of the head of the White house, Saudi Arabia must not just learn to coexist peacefully in the region together with Iran, but, moreover, to share with him the sphere of influence.
Obama also made clear that Washington, despite the presence of military bases on the Arabian Peninsula, will not cover Saudi Arabia in the case of a military adventure of Riyadh against Iran. It is noteworthy that the U.S. President finally saw the negative impact of Islam’s Wahhabi wing for stability in Asia. According to him, the Saudis carried out the expansion of fundamentalist versions of Islam in countries such as Indonesia, flooding her with their money, teachers, preachers, and madrasas.
To the uncomfortable question of the journalist, can we consider Saudi Arabia a US ally, the American President evasively (almost in the style of the questionnaire on marital status) replied: “it’s complicated”. The monarchs of the Gulf States Barack Obama indirectly accused of irresponsibility, calling “reckless riders.” In fairness, this is a delicate definition (one might say, slightly chided) is equally applicable to overseas patrons, the Saudis.
We will remind, until recently, Washington turned a blind eye to support a monarchy of radical Islamists around the world, and has refrained from criticizing openly the totalitarian regime, head of the “American unsinkable aircraft carrier” in the region.
However, given the propensity of the foreign policy strategists of the USA to double jeopardy, the question about the readiness of Washington to abandon its support for its longtime partner remains open.
Chief editor of the magazine “problems of national strategy” RISS, Azhdar Kurtov, believes that Washington sends to Riyadh unambiguous signal.
— The relationship between the U.S. and the Saudis for a number of reasons worsened in recent times. And this is not only a consequence of competition for funding, and thus for influence over the forces fighting in Syria and Iraq. And not only attempt to balance traditional U.S. allies in the region derived from the sanctions by Iran.
There is another purely economic factors. About ten years ago the U.S. government decided that the extraction of shale gas or, scientifically speaking, “gas rugged layers” will not only get rid of energy dependence on “middle Eastern gas station”, but also to go to expansion in the world markets of hydrocarbons. They have already started construction of a terminal for LNG on the Atlantic and on the Pacific coast. To be able to send it both in Europe and in Asia.
In this project invested enormous resources, including information. Therefore, all the world’s media (including the Russian) a few years ago was actively exaggerated the theme of “shale revolution”. However, in conditions of deceleration of world economic growth, energy prices fell sharply, resulting in shale projects become unprofitable.
And Riyadh contributed to this by arranging a hydrocarbon Americans a real “race to the bottom” by refusing to lower production levels.
— You are absolutely right. Even after the angry call from Washington, the Saudis agree to waive dumping only if freeze oil agrees Iran. This proposal is quite absurd, given that Saudi Arabia in January produced more than 10 million barrels per day. While production in Iran, according to OPEC, is at the level of 3.1 million “barrels”.
Us shale business can not withstand the race. But this affects not only the interests of the gas industry of petroleum, but also bankers, investment and insurance companies. And Obama is forced to reckon with the displeasure of the energy lobby.
— To what extent a cooling of relations with the Saudis was influenced by the factor of lifting of sanctions with Iran?
— Americans ascribe some credit for the collapse of the “Iranian nuclear program” and the output is (still partial) of Tehran under sanctions. This allows them to create room to maneuver in the middle East and walk away from the situation, when before their only allies (the Gulf monarchies and Israel) acted as the tail “trying to wag the dog.”
The Royal family in Saudi Arabia is quite sensitive to the new reality, when its main competitor in the region moving closer to the US, which, thus, receive a “baton” in the middle East.
At the same time, the American elite realize that Saudi Arabia was and remains the spiritual center of much of the Muslim world. In this regard Washington not to completely spoil relations with this country.
In the case of the geopolitical divide of the ruling clan of the Saudis could fully associate myself with radical Islamists. Turning Washington into a new Iran, the spiritual leaders of which used to be called the US “the Great Satan”.
It is the American authorities do not need. Speaking of which, your claim against the policy of Riyadh Obama is not expressed at the meeting of Congress, and in an interview. Again, this is a signal to Riyadh that it has corrected its position.
He will be heard?
— The US has a whole set of effective instruments to influence the position of the Kingdom. For example, to suspend the performance of contracts in the sphere of military-technical cooperation. It’s no secret that the bulk of their weapons, the Saudis purchase from the US.
I don’t exclude that a public demarche to the address of Riyadh can be linked to the fact that by the end of 2015, the portfolio of arms contracts between Russia reached a maximum value of $ 55 billion While the government of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries have already been sounding out the possibility of procurement of various types of weapons from Russia that look preferable in terms of price/quality.
— That is, Washington warns — don’t even try!
— You could say that. But, most importantly, the United States are dissatisfied spontaneous activity of the representatives of the ruling family. For example, the head of Saudi intelligence began to travel around to different countries, about something to agree. And, as I understand it, without approval from Washington. While the United States used to keep allies “on a short leash”.
— Obama referred to the negative influence of Wahhabi Islam on stability in Asia. As an example, he cited not evil because of the Saudi regime with the odious IG*, and religious proselytism in Indonesia.
— United States themselves are playing a double game with Islamic extremists. So about changing the overall paradigm is too early to say. As for Indonesia, it is the largest Muslim country in the modern world. Moreover, it is in the Asia-Pacific region where the US promote its regional draft agreement on TRANS-Pacific partnership. If the Saudis will continue to radikalislamisten such a major player, it could cause the Americans to put the region under its control.
— U.S. sanctions against European banks prove that the White house could stop the funding of extremist groups from both the Persian Gulf monarchies and Turkey.
— With the Europeans so to do, and with the regimes on the Arabian Peninsula that is a problem. The OPEC countries owned us Treasury securities of $ 289 billion, while the share of Saudi Arabia was the greatest. To compensate for the largest a quarter of a century the budget deficit Riyadh already got rid of foreign exchange reserves at $ 100 billion According to some experts, if the Saudis will sell the remaining securities of the U.S. Treasury, thus can bring down the American debt market. So the Americans will not take drastic steps in the financial sector against its recalcitrant allies.
— How probable is the scenario of the disintegration of Saudi Arabia?
— Yes, we know what is happening in neighboring Yemen, where Shiite rebels actively helping Iraq. Although in Saudi Arabia itself, the Shia make up 15% of the population, to be honest, I don’t think this scenario is realizable. And, moreover, that it is supported by the United States. Because if Saudi Arabia is highlighted Shiite state, it will blow up the whole situation in the region.
That is, it automatically will strengthen Iran will launch an attack on the ally in the person of Israel (through the activation of the Shiite “Hezbollah”). Plus “go Assad“, it seems, is still an obsession with Washington, despite the confrontation with the IG. In this plan he still need one Saudi Arabia as a factor of pressure on the leader of Syria.
Of course, Saudi Arabia, in spite of the system of absolute monarchy, it is not a monolith. There remains, tribal division, the power of the fraternity. Against this background, there is the ruling Royal family of the Saudis, the autocracy which not everyone is happy. In this respect, the US can leave a single state, but, for example, remove the ruling dynasty, if it would afford too many liberties. Do not exclude that in the bowels of the CIA, this option worked. If the Americans bring to power his creature, she is, understandably, to be more accommodating.
According to the Director of the Center for the study of Middle East and Central Asia Seeds Bagdasarova, the Americans are trying to diversify the geopolitical risks in the middle East.
Is what’s called “not putting all your eggs in one basket”. Washington has a line that neither Israel nor Saudi Arabia nor Iran could be allies, the monopolists against the Americans. The latter try to manipulate these countries by playing the famous contradictions.
— When Obama expressed displeasure about the progress of the Saudis by Wahhabists ideology is not a game for the audience?
Americans fed themselves and even gave rise to the Islamic movement with extremist ideology. As they say, blame it on the private sins of another, to not think on you.
— Urging them to ensure that the Saudis and Iran balanced each other, the Americans reconsider their concept of “greater Middle East”, understood as chaos in the region?
— Partly. By invading Iraq in 2003, they thought it would be easy to do, but you do not count all the consequences. While Washington is monitoring the situation closely. Hence the recent statement of the state Department on the inadmissibility of the emergence of Kurdish autonomy in Syria or Iraqi Kurdistan. And, in General, the US is acting on the situation — if possible, will maintain relations with any force. They need in the middle East there were several centers of influence, between which can be tacked or periodically to pit them with each other.
With his own hands to overthrow the ruling dynasty in Saudi Arabia, the Americans will not. But, if due to the same Iranians the process starts, they will head it. No matter who wins — the US will benefit from.
