The closer the date of the presidential elections in the United States and save a bad situation on the world oil market, Moscow and Tehran is more than ever necessary to think about a new level of partnership and bring it to a strategic level and not be limited just to the expansion of cooperation on certain issues of common agenda. Likely mistress of the White House in 7 months will be Hillary Clinton, openly threatened the election program of Russia and Iran. The Republican candidate Donald trump, whose victory mistakenly expect Moscow and Tehran, the chance to become the new President of the United States is much smaller. Even given the fact that he does not feel particular sympathy for Russia and Iran, Hillary Clinton led the us administration seems to our countries is the worst option.
As you know, former U.S. Secretary of state Hillary Clinton is not looking for compromise, trust not in diplomacy, and cruel actions, even if it can hurt the interests of the Americans. Its position and practice 5 years ago on Libya – a vivid example. And the fact that she’s in the middle East focused on Saudi Arabia and Qatar, where when he was head of the foreign Ministry, the US received generous gifts, for anybody not a secret. With the arrival of Hillary Clinton for the presidency of Russia and Iran, will likely have to deal with the new strategy of Washington in the region, not excluding the radical revision of the policy of the current leadership of America. Ready American diplomacy to abandon the policy of Barack Obama? The direction in which Clinton can deploy to the middle East policy of the United States? Return Washington to the unconditional support of Riyadh? As a new US strategy may affect the interests of Moscow and Tehran?
In Washington preparing for the arrival of Hillary Clinton
The U.S. state Department to joining the White House, Hillary Clinton, characterized by a rigid orientation in foreign policy, especially in relation to Russia and Iran, are ready. The struggle against Moscow and to maintain control over the main sources of energy have always been at the heart of the strategy all American presidents. Tehran, despite the decision of the Obama administration to make compromises in closing the Iranian nuclear dossier remains in a number of America’s enemies. Deal with the Islamic Republic was a turning point in relations with one of the most powerful regional powers. Under Obama, officials of the U.S. state Department clearly missed the solid and uncompromising actions of Washington. During the eight years of the current White House head has done a lot to mitigate the negative image of the United States as an aggressive player on the world stage. Obama in the middle East will be remembered for the withdrawal of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, the abandonment of the bombing of Syria in September 2014, the reluctance to participate in the land operation of the NATO-GCC in Libya, refraining from direct military intervention in the Yemeni conflict, the conclusion of a deal with Iran on the Iranian nuclear program in spite of the active opposition of Saudi Arabia and Israel.
However, the diplomacy Obama has not found universal support, not only in us Congress but also in his government. Washington is ready to change tacks and return to the previous practice of military intervention and interference in the internal Affairs of sovereign States. For example, on June 16, dozens of members of the US state Department signed a confidential document, calling on President Obama to take military action against Damascus. In their opinion, change “the Syrian regime is the only way to combat “Islamic state.” According to The Wall Street Journal under the document was signed by 51 employee of the U.S. state Department middle and senior rank responsible for Syria. In his address they protested against the policy of the White house in Syria and called for an immediate strike “targeted military strikes” for the armed forces of the legitimate President Bashar al-Assad. Its recommendation are based on the fact that the Syrian authorities allegedly violate the ceasefire. According to the authors of the letter, the inability of Washington to stop the “egregious crimes” of Assad will strengthen the ideological appeal of the extremist group “Islamic state”, despite the military failures of the rebels.
Sending such messages to the President of the United States is a common practice, but so many diplomats under them, as a rule, do not subscribe. As pointed out by The New York Times, “fifty-one signature — that is a lot, if not unprecedented.” The state Department has acknowledged the existence of this document, but declined to comment on its contents.
You need to remind them a few days ahead of U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry, who said about the threat of the breakdown of the ceasefire in Syria. Kerry warned that Washington is running out of patience. “Russia must understand that our patience is not unlimited, especially with regard to whether Assad is brought to justice,” – he said. Later, however, after the sharp demarche of the head of the Russian foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the state Department explained that the diplomat did not threaten Moscow and only expressed “my frustration” about the current situation.
Statements by Kerry about diminishing Washington’s patience with regard to Syria should not be construed as a threat, with such explanation was made by the official representative of State Department of the USA John Kirby. However, officials of the American administration never bother to prove their accusations against Russia or Iran. Not coincidentally, Kirby, not going into details, also claimed that American authorities are “actively exploring the options available” in Syria. What “options” can be discussed now clear. Headed by Hillary Clinton, the US are likely to go for military intervention in Syria and Lebanon (to destroy Hezbollah, and then Iraq and Yemen will be next.
Iran was able to exploit the Obama presidency
During his election campaign Clinton outlined his main “enemies”. It – Russia, Iran and China, which do not allow to realize American interests in the most important regions of Washington.
Unlike Tehran, who were able took advantage of the desire of Barack Obama to change American foreign policy, Moscow perceived the positive gestures of the outgoing President as a sign of weakness, which led to a number of serious errors, from Ukraine to the Middle East, from the deterioration of relations with NATO to bring relations with the EU and its leading countries to the worst level in the past 30 years since Gorbachev’s perestroika. The Kremlin has lost 8 years of Obama in the White House, which, according to many experts, could be used for a real reset in Russian-American cooperation. Instead, Moscow received: Western economic sanctions, a significant isolation in the world, the loss of many partners, the growth of tension in many areas – from the military sphere to the sphere of sports.
Tehran, in contrast to Moscow pragmatically interpreted the signals coming from the American President, and fast enough to get a deal on the Iranian nuclear program, thereby solving its main foreign policy problem breaking the sanctions regime and strengthened its position in the region, and due to the weakening of the influence of Saudi Arabia and Israel. Iran has been able to converge with the EU, especially in trade-economic sphere, while not losing positions to the detriment of its national interests and without changing the foundations of its political system. Iranian diplomacy is likely to put the “solid five”.
Now is not the time to figure out who exactly was preparing for the Kremlin’s decisions on various issues, which only worsened the position of Moscow on the world stage-and most dangerous – not only significantly worsened the economic situation in Russia, but also increased the security threats in the country, including its military component. It is now important to understand that with the arrival of Hillary Clinton in the speed of implementation of tasks aimed at undermining the ruling elites in our countries with the ultimate aim of replacing them with Pro-Western regimes will only be accelerated and allocated funds increased. The new President of the United States, and it is not necessary to doubt, will beat through the weakest link of Russia and Iran – hydrocarbon orientation of their economies.
Note that Iran during the time of Western sanctions has had much to do in terms of self-sufficiency and import substitution. Russia is clearly marking time in the vain hope for a split within the West, and especially in the EU, and that by some miracle the price of oil and hence the gas again quickly rise to the top. But this will not happen: here you just need to soberly assess the situation, realizing that another reason for the imposition of sanctions will be gone. And why Washington need to end the use of the present moment in their confrontation with Moscow. This Hillary Clinton and calls.
Tools of American pressure on Russia and Iran
It is also clear who will act, and Hillary Clinton for the economic strangulation of Moscow and Tehran. It is primarily Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other wealthy oil and gas, the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf. Their effect on the fall in oil prices, as well as the dumping of Qatar LNG has at the same time, Russia and Iran as the largest oil and gas producers.
Of course, the United States will continue the development of its oil shale sector, as well as involve canadian oil Sands bitumen to increase emissions of hydrocarbons to the world market in order to further reduce their prices. But the most dangerous of all, it is Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Not coincidentally, all the Kremlin’s attempts to negotiate with the CSA on oil, either within OPEC or on a bilateral basis, didn’t yield any results and will not give. The Saudis skillfully distract the attention of the Russian leadership powerful “assault” their political leaders and the business community. From Riyadh come a multibillion-dollar promises, declared the willingness to invest in the Russian economy, made attractive offers on purchases of Russian weapons. Despite the fact that the real results of Russian-Saudi cooperation is not visible, like Moscow’s position seriously hinders the development of partnership between Russia and Iran in economic, energy and military-technical sphere.
We must admit that Iran is behaving strangely often, preferring negotiations for the purchase of weapons and industrial products not from Russia, and the West. This means one thing – the West and their Arabian allies successfully split Moscow and Tehran, delaying the time before the change of President of the United States. Every month of delay between Russia and Iran plays into the hands of their opponents. Swallowing generous promises of the Arabian sheikhs, Moscow sows seeds of doubt in Tehran, and the latter for his contacts in military-technical cooperation and energy cooperation with the EU is causing distrust among the Russian leadership. And then there’s obviously not a thoughtful gesture with a solemn transfer destroyed in Lebanon in 1982 of an Israeli tank, obtained from the Syrians, Prime Minister Netanyahu. Nothing but bewilderment in the Arab-Islamic world, including Iran, is not caused. Involuntarily the question arises: can, someone specifically suggested to the Russian leader to do? If “Yes”, then what purpose guided? In General, questions about the mistakes too much.
De facto, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are already hydrocarbon war against Russia and Iran. The KSA has become urgent to supply oil to Europe, including Poland, while recently reducing the price for the European consumers, which has Russia as the main oil exporter in the EU. Saudis are a fine game in the Asian markets, which mostly supplies crude oil of Iran, trying to retain the largest and most promising oil consumers – China and India. Qatar for its spot LNG supplies explicit dumping in Europe, including the traditional markets for Russian pipeline gas, it knocks down the price “Gazprom” and in General reduces the volume of gas purchases from the Russian Federation. And the development of LNG facilities in the Emirate will slow the process of development of Iranian gas supplies to Asia in order to push Iran to Europe and Turkey and thereby loggerheads Moscow and Tehran.
The main direction of impact
It is clear that Hillary Clinton is not going to wait until you start to crumble the economy of Russia and Iran. It’s too long. And Washington need to hurry, while Moscow and Tehran haven’t figured out all the American plans to eliminate the current regimes in both countries that have not satisfied the White House. Only then USA can take China, which is short-sighted, hoping, as always, that “Chinese tiger” will be able to once again sit on the mountain watching the fight rivals at the bottom. Can’t. In Washington, Beijing has clearly defined along with Russia and Iran as the main force of “evil”. China prevents the US to be deployed in Asia and to ensure the safety of the main allies – Japan and South Korea. On economic competition say it makes no sense – there has long been the all clear.
Only in China do not understand the main thing: in the next 20 years America will remain no matter what stronger militarily, politically and economically, than China, where there are problems, as with the growth and internal issues, including conflicts on ethno-religious grounds. And Beijing has no chance to become the sole world leader. It is alien to ideology and cultural-religious essence of the West and its Asian neighbors are just afraid of Chinese expansion and are looking for allies to counterbalance China as in the United States and India, which is not going to be a secondary power in Asia. So Beijing if he doesn’t want to be crushed by the West, need to cease their “neutrality” and to create an Alliance with Russia and Iran, which will join the Central Asian countries, part of the Islamic States and the few remaining sources of Russia’s allies in Europe to counter the hegemony of Washington, NATO and their partners in the middle East and Asia.
But now Moscow and Tehran have more than short-term common goal: how to keep away from an upcoming occurrence, Hillary Clinton Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. That is the country’s Shiite arc. Washington, Riyadh, Doha and Ankara will never accept the fact that in Syria, by relying on videoconferencing, the Iranian revolutionary guards and Lebanese Hizbullah will survive the legitimate government of Bashar al-Assad. Without Syrian territory as a transit country Saudi Arabia will never build a pipeline to Europe, while Qatar gas pipeline to the EU and Turkey. And without the “Hezbollah” of Lebanon will come under the control of the West, and through it the easier it will be to defeat Damascus.
I got something to do with Baghdad, where the government Abadi is clearly trying to distance itself from Tehran, falling into dependence on the US and Pro-Turkish Kurds Barzani, while Iranian interests in Iraq can only guarantee forces grouped around M. Sadr. Moreover, the current military operation of Iraqi forces to take Fallujah showed that Washington is ready again to rely on in Iraq for the Sunnis, including those who were once on the side of Saddam Hussein. Because the Sunni Arabs have always been the basis of Western influence in Iraq, while the USSR and Iran were mostly sympathetic to the Shi’ite population.
And, of course, Moscow and Tehran need to be addressed urgently, “the Saudi question”, without which it is impossible to sharply raise oil prices and to stop playing of Riyadh in the Persian Gulf, the middle East, and in General in the Arab and Islamic world. Now the Kingdom is mired in the Yemeni war; its budget is depleted of low oil prices; the reform program adopted recently by the Deputy crown Prince, defence Minister and son of king Mohammed doomed to failure; tribal Association dissatisfied with a ruling family, al Saud, due to the reduction of financial subsidies; within the Royal clan grows the contradiction between the Pro-American crown Prince Naif and his wayward Deputy, Mohammad and king Salman weakens. While the CSA continues costly adventure in Libya, spend a lot of money to maintain the military regime in Egypt and continues to Fund radical opposition in Syria, breaking the Syrian dialogue.
Apparently, it is time to end this harmful policy of the conservative Wahhabi regime, and at the same time to stop the brazen intervention of another Wahhabi monarchy of Qatar. This would benefit not only Russia and Iran but also all Arabs. Sponsors of “color” revolutions and “Arab spring” have clearly themselves through their offspring and turn into a normal civilized country of the existing vestiges of the 17th century.
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In any case, the clock relentlessly move forward, faster and faster approaching the time of the arrival of Hillary Clinton in the White House. Not coincidentally the son of the Saudi king and the Minister of defense, Deputy crown Prince of KSA Mohammed bin Salman is visiting Washington, while allocating to the Fund the election campaign of Hilary 20% of the total amount of its “budget”. In exchange for that she will drop the charges about the involvement of the CSA to terrorism, announced by Obama. But this time at SPIEF in Saint Petersburg, head of the RDIF extols the investors from Arabia. And Russia is ready to give 25% of the shares of the already profitable company “Helicopters of Russia”. Although BFI today have not mastered anything that he allegedly invested the GCC countries, including Saudi Arabia.
As the saying goes, “procrastination “is like death.” It is time to learn how to act before threats, not the elimination of their consequences. Otherwise you can ever play. I want to believe that Moscow and Tehran will come to the realization of common goals and will be able to develop specific steps to prevent an imminent threat. Not yet too late.
