The fall in GDP in the risky scenario, average annual oil prices at $25 per barrel in 2016 is estimated at about 3%. This was stated by the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev in an interview to “Rossiyskaya Gazeta”. According to the Minister, the chances of this scenario are zero.
“The risk scenario is expected at $25. It is clear that this means saving a fairly significant economic downturn, although it would have been less than the decline in 2015 (3.7 percent in 2015 — approx. ed.) in GDP of about three percent. Accordingly, cons and industrial production, and investment in fixed capital. But minus investment will continue in the baseline projection (at $40 per barrel) is about three percent, and risky it will be comparable to the figure of 2015, when it was 8,4%” — he said.
This Outlook on the dynamics of the economy almost identical with the risk scenario of the Central Bank, which also was calculated at $25 per barrel, and proceeded from the fall of the economy in 2016, two to three percent. Thus the prerequisites for the baseline scenario, the Central Bank and the Ministry of economic development are split on the Central Bank comes from $30 per barrel and the Ministry of economic development plans to calculate from $40 per barrel. “Interesting and even funny thing: back in January, when the price of oil dropped to $27 per barrel, we and the Central Bank believed that $35 a year is the most likely scenario. After that, the price of oil has grown by half — from $27 to $41 and analysts began to revise their estimates. Now the analysts of the largest investment banks and international organizations consensus — $37,7 per barrel for this year. And we, though not yet finally decided, inclined to go from $35 to $40. And the Bank of Russia, taking advantage of their freedom, went from $35 to $30. For me it is a strange story. I think the chances for the realization of this forecast — zero”, — commented on his view about the likelihood of the baseline forecast of the Central Bank Alexei Ulyukayev.
“I personally think that by the end of the year the balance is set at $50, but the average annual value will be $40 plus. But we’ll take a break in a couple of weeks and will further discuss this with colleagues to understand their logic. Maybe they know something that we don’t know,” he added. In the scenario of $40 per barrel, Ulyukayev expects a decline of Russia’s GDP in 2016 in the range of 0 to 0.5%.
World prices for “black gold” are falling today during trades on the London and new York stock exchanges. Futures for oil of the reference Brent crude for delivery in may on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell by 1.56 per cent — below the psychological milestone of $40 to $39,83 per barrel. The may futures for light oil of mark WTI on the new York Mercantile exchange (NYMEX) fell 1.18% to $39,32 per barrel.
