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U.S. military analysts are expecting from Russia “instant offensive on three fronts”

Военные аналитики США ждут от России «мгновенной наступательной операции сразу на трех направлениях»

“After ambitious reforms in the military sphere, Russia has now enough soldiers to support three major operations.” This is the conclusion of the influential American analytical center, which released the report on extreme weakness of NATO in Europe and a huge military force of Russia. Why are these reports that frighten Western citizens of a mythical Russian threat?

American analytical center Atlantic Council (the”Atlantic Board”), associated with NATO, state Department and U.S. intelligence, was presented on Friday a report, from which it follows that in the present state of the North Atlantic Alliance allegedly unable to protect the Eastern border of the EU “in the face of an increasingly aggressive Russia”.

As informs bi-Bi-si, in the preparation of the report was attended by prominent military and political figures, among them former NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, British General sir Richard Shirreff, ex-Minister of defence of Italy Giampaolo di Paola.

Военные аналитики США ждут от России «мгновенной наступательной операции сразу на трех направлениях»

“Russian threat” in the Baltic States

Note that before the publication of the report of his actively quoted the Financial Times, which cited the Baltic media, in particular the Russian-language Delfi. After the publication became known – the authors argue that the Baltic direction is the greatest threat. “Experts consider a scenario in which Russia seized the Baltic former Soviet republics,” notes bi-Bi-si. British media Corporation reminds them about his own controversial film, which examines the scenario of the Third world war, which supposedly can be started because of the invasion of Russia in Latvia.

“As for the possibilities, not the most optimistic estimates, after 10 years of growth in military spending and an ambitious, far-reaching reforms of the former Minister of defense Anatoly Serdyukov, Russia has now enough soldiers on involuntary service (excluding mobilization reserve) to support three major operations: the attack on the Baltic States, the fighting in Poland and the blocking of government troops in the East of Ukraine”, – the authors of the report.

In addition, it is noted that in 2013-2015 Moscow is actively built up its military might on the West. “In January it became known that in the Western military district of Russia will create three new divisions – in addition to the 1st tank army, which also formed there”, – quotes the report of bi-Bi-si.

British Corporation refers to a study commissioned by the U.S. Congress, according to which the Baltic States can be captured in less than three days – even in the case of placing there NATO brigade. In addition, the experts of the American RAND Corporation came to the conclusion that the Russian armed forces in their current state is supposedly able to capture Tallinn and Riga in less than 60 hours, causing “a catastrophic defeat for the forces of the Alliance”.

Военные аналитики США ждут от России «мгновенной наступательной операции сразу на трех направлениях»

“Desperate weakness”

Financial Times, in turn, draws attention to the alarmist tone, the authors exaggerate the theme of the unwillingness of NATO to answer the “aggressive aspirations of Russia”.

Over the past three years it almost did not move forward: the army key European countries – members of the Alliance continue to experience “chronic underfunding” and a significant technical problem. “For example, in the German Bundeswehr from 31 Tiger helicopter, only 10 were usable. The same can be said of fighting machines of infantry Marder is serviceable only from 406 280” – said the Lithuanian portal Delfi, quoting the report.

“The economic condition of Germany, its geographical position and influence in European policy requires more participation and in matters of defence”, – experts advise Berlin of the U.S. Atlantic Council. The report blamed the German and overall European politicians that oppose the allocation of additional budget funds for defense.

One of the authors, British General Shirreff complains that in Her Majesty’s army fared no better than in the Bundeswehr: “the Deployment of the brigade, not to mention division, in a state of readiness is a complex task”. So much so, that when last year NATO conducted exercises in Europe, had to deliver the tanks from Canada, “because the situation with parts and service British military equipment was simply desperate”.

About a quarter of the countries do not have to be military aviation, and 30% of the fleet, or they are so tiny that their personnel does not exceed 600 men; in half the countries the armed forces does not exceed 20 thousand people, stir up the panic the report of the Atlantic Council.

And this at a time when, according to a February report by the London analytical center European Leadership Network, Russia “does not intend to curtail its re-equipment… in the vicinity of the borders of NATO.”

Военные аналитики США ждут от России «мгновенной наступательной операции сразу на трех направлениях»

Without American “aid” not do

The output of the speakers is simple: NATO should “make all efforts for permanent placement of military from the United States and Western countries in the border States, to keep Moscow from risky moves”.

The Atlantic Council recalls that the U.S. President Barack Obama announced plans to deploy in NATO countries in Central and Eastern Europe military equipment, enough to arm one armoured brigade, to be based in the region on a permanent basis.

The authors believe that the region needs to create a temporary deployments and permanent. “In parallel with the air mission in the Baltic States effective deterrence requires more than the occasional training activity. Rather, you need constant presence to exclude the possibility of Russia instant offensive operations, able to achieve results before will be involved reserves the NATO”, – stated in the document.

Военные аналитики США ждут от России «мгновенной наступательной операции сразу на трех направлениях»

Lobbying efforts

Expert of Association of military political scientists, associate Professor of political science and sociology REU named after Plekhanov Alexander Perendzhiev sure that the aim of these reports is the desire to influence public opinion.

In this case it may pursue two tasks. First and foremost is securing funding NATO, so that it is at least not decreased, and in the best case – increased.

“The authors of the report act as political lobbyists in the existence of NATO, its financing. Today there is serious concern among both the medium and the high command of the Alliance, NATO faces the threat of reduction of its role and even liquidation. This is manifested indirectly. Recently it came to the creation of the army of the European Union. This means that this army will be a competitor to NATO, to some extent, his grave-digger. Army of the EU gives Europe more independence in greater safety. Because at present NATO for the EU – structure, an outside contractor,” said Perendzhiev the newspaper VIEW.

A constant focus on Eastern Europe is also not accidental. The group constantly asks NATO assistance in the modernization of weapons. “To date, their membership in NATO to a greater extent is that they are spending on NATO than the Alliance in something helps them. It is always evident that the Eastern European lobby that NATO needs to strengthen its presence. No wonder Hungary has recently announced about the necessity of NATO expansion”, – the expert believes.

Военные аналитики США ждут от России «мгновенной наступательной операции сразу на трех направлениях»

“NATO members are impressive and armored missile power of Russia”

With regard to the main report’s conclusion that NATO is unable to protect the Eastern border of the EU, Alexander Perendzhiev stresses that the reforms of the army of the former Warsaw Pact countries were largely reduced, especially the tank units, air force. In the military doctrine the same of Hungary stated that troops must be able to repel the first strike of a potential enemy before the arrival of the main forces of NATO.

“Apparently, the analysts come to the conclusion that this first onslaught of the army to endure can not. Moreover, even if the main forces come, they will suffer defeat from Russia. First of all NATO members is impressive missile power of Russia and armoured units, rocket artillery type “Grad”, – said the expert.

And the development of our aerospace forces gives greater weight to it’s offensive capabilities of Russia. This is all very impressive NATO members, and in a sense they have a fear that the strategy, which was produced after the 90’s, now shows its inefficiency, Perendzhiev considers. “It turns out that NATO – a huge powerful structure can not cope, in the words of Obama, with some kind of regional power. So in a sense the truth in this report exists, although actually there is a question of preserving the very structure that people have served on, received good salaries,” he said.

Военные аналитики США ждут от России «мгновенной наступательной операции сразу на трех направлениях»

“Informational campaign”

In turn, the first Vice-President of Academy of geopolitical problems Konstantin Sivkov says the report is pure propaganda step, since NATO “significantly surpasses Russia in combat composition of the armed forces and technical equipment”. “This is a purely informational campaign, which is aimed at solving two tasks: to drive additional funding to military spending of NATO countries, as well as to Orient the peoples of the countries of Western Europe that Russia is an enemy, for war to prepare their armed forces”, – said the newspaper VIEW Sivkov.

As specific examples of the incapacity of NATO, for example, the transfer from Canada to Europe of armored vehicles for training exercises, Sivkov explains this is not a compulsory measure from-for absence of spare parts, and working off a troop transport from the North American continent to the European theater of war. “The fact that Americans now throw their planes in Europe, Turkey – this does not mean that these countries lack of spare parts, because there are shock troops,” he said Sivkov.

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