Analysis of Russian-Western confrontation once again confirms the old truth — while solid, the high Contracting parties have substantially grater, around worn lot of sixes that their yelps are trying to attract their attention. Though, tellingly, how I would say the legendary hockey goalkeeper Gorky “torpedo” Viktor Konovalenko after the tour of team Canada, “the smaller barn, the more the scream.”
And our dear Baltic countries — political no weight, but a lot of noise. Especially in recent years. Sanctions against Russia were the trigger, after which the Baltic Russophobic regimes as the chain broke. In the course went the biggest argumentation artillery — say, Russia wants the military to occupy these countries. All this would be funny as Russian troops held all the Baltic States to the sea and did not even notice any resistance, even with the NATO units, which will be located there next year. However, this loud noise allows a larger “partners” Russia to use this completely artificial reason for the formation of the anti-Russian game.
Thus, the current elite of the Baltic countries are not doing any lessons from the immediate past. Let me remind you that it is because of anti-Russian hysteria, because of Russophobic sentiments, because of the humiliation of the Russian population of the Baltic countries, Russia from the late 1990s began the process of bringing our Baltic partners in a sense, when I started breaking their monopoly on Russian energy exports and goods in the West. As noted by Mikhail Demurin, the situation in this region at the beginning of 1990-ies was as follows. Four Russian port on the Baltic sea — Kaliningrad, Saint-Petersburg, Vyborg and Vysotsk — could miss only a quarter of the volume of export cargoes that went in this direction. The overall deficit of port capacities in the Baltic sea amounted to about 100 million tons, and the Baltic States earn on service of the Russian transit of cargoes up to 1 billion us dollars a year.
“Particularly strong transit monopoly of the Baltic States was felt in the transit of oil, and the dominant position here is occupied Latvia, since the Latvian port of Ventspils was in the Soviet period laid the region’s only pipe. In total through the Latvian ports in the period was transported over 30 million tonnes of oil and oil products annually, and Latvians count this volume at least double”. I mean, remember at the beginning of the 1990s the Baltic States handled more than 30 million tons of oil and oil products from Russia each year. And the income the same Latvia the Ventspils Russian oil accounted for about 10% of the budget.
In 1990-e years the Baltic States have done a lot of anti-Russian gestures, but the key to collapse of Russian oil transit, according to Mikhail Demurin, was that in 1999, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia were among the first to join the oil embargo of the EU against Yugoslavia, established in violation of the UN Charter. “Thus, we have shown that, henceforth, in critical situations the end points of the Russian oil exports through their territory to choose EU or rather the US, not Russia itself.”
After that Russia started construction of the Baltic pipeline system (although the decision on its construction was made in 1997) with which Russia was not only to reduce their political dependence on border States in terms of transit, but also substantially reduce economic support of the militant Baltic Russophobes. On 31 March 2000 at the base of this building in now successfully operating the bulk-oil port Primorsk was laid a memorial stone, and in December 2001, a new Russian port on the Baltic was loaded the first tanker.
First BTS included handling a total of 12 million tons of oil. However, due to the continued Russophobic eccentricities of the Baltic States, the volume of transshipment of oil and oil products in 2006 amounted to 74 million tonnes, which went from the Baltic ports. In the same year, Russia stopped shipping oil through the Lithuanian port of Butinge. In 2009 came the turn of Odessa to say goodbye to transit Russian oil.
There was another story in the early 2000s with the Ventspils oil port and refinery Mazeikiu, which the Baltic States also refused to sell Russia, but in the end was left with a hole from the Golden bagel. The pipe broke, and Russia did not want to restore it. As a result, Vice-President “Transneft” Sergey Grigoriev told in an interview to Baltic publications memorable phrase “knit socks are knit and not fight for transit. As a result, the value of the controlling stake in Ventspils Nafta, the main operator of the Ventspils port decreased from $ 200 million, which would Aivars Lembergs, to 1 dollar. It was the year 2003.
However, despite the political understanding of the necessity of abandoning the Baltic transit of oil and oil products in 2007, according to the Russian Minister of transport Igor Levitin, Russia was transshipped through the ports of the Baltic States around 80% of the oil. As a result, the marine Board meeting in St. Petersburg in July 2008 it was decided that Russia should completely get rid of dependence on the Baltic border States in terms of transit of oil and oil products by 2015.
Nevertheless, the authorities of the Baltic States continued to think that this is a joke. Thus, on 8 January 2010, the magazine Kapitals published a interview with the Vice-mayor of Riga, Ainars Slesers, who is also one of the leaders of the party LPP/LTS. “Before the crisis, when the price of oil was very high, the Russian side has clearly identified that will develop the infrastructure of its ports and will try to provide it all yourself. Now they understand that it is a utopia. It is impossible to implement all of it — to build roads, Railways and everything you need. Therefore, the capacity of Latvian ports at 60 million tons with additional capacity of up to 80-100 million tons is attractive,” said Ainars Slesers.
As it turned out, it was a big and serious mistake. In 2014, in connection with the accession of the Baltic States to the EU measures of economic pressure on our country, “Transneft” and the largest Russian oil company decided to redirect Russian oil and oil products from the ports of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia in domestic ports.
The consistent policy of the leadership of Russia to protect national interests in Economics and the development of its own port infrastructure in the Baltic sea has led to the fact that entered into operation new capacity, with the result that in 2015, Russia was transshipped through the ports of the Baltic States, only 9 million tons of oil products. And here as it became known on September 12 during the meeting the head of “Transneft” Nikolay Tokarev Vladimir Putin, the remainder in ports of the Baltic States the volume of 9 million tons of oil products, by 1 January 2018 will be fully transferred to Russian ports.
Thus, exports are still partially going through Ventspils and Riga will be deployed on Ust-Luga and Primorsk and Novorossiysk. According to head “Transneft”, Russian factories allow you to load the pipelines to a volume of 32 million tons. “Part of the capacity that is not demanded under the oil, we will reorient under the products. This will happen in the direction of Primorsk to 25 million tons of diesel fuel will supply, and in the direction of Novorossiysk, the Volgograd refinery, the group’s refinery in Krasnodar region”, — said Nikolai Tokarev.
It is worth noting that Russia is gradually overlaps the cooperation is not only Russophobic authorities in the former Soviet Baltic republics, but also with their Ukrainian “colleagues”. So, in addition to the project “Nord stream 2”, which would deprive Kiev of the status of gas transit country in Moscow banned the supply through Ukraine petroleum products. Of course, after the oil, as the readiness of the Russian port infrastructure of the Baltic ports will take Russian oil.
Naturally, oil and oil products only from a large part of Russian exports going by sea. As the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Engineering company “2K”Ivan Andrievsky, in General for 15 years, the volume of cargo turnover through Russian ports increased 2.7 times. This is a huge accomplishment. Built a new terminal on the Baltic coast, are actively developing ports of the Arctic basin. There was a powerful infrastructure in the far East.
“Novorossiysk is the leader by volume among Russian ports, for two years was able to strengthen its momentum more than 127 million tons. The Baltic port of Ust-Luga in two years has become the second after Novorossiysk, having increased its turnover from 63 to almost 90 million tons. When just beginning to build the port of Ust-Luga, has stated that it will handle up to 170-180 million tons of cargo per year. Such a leap can only give a redirect transit flows from Baltic States to Leningrad oblast.
The loss of the Baltic States from the implementation of the plans will be as huge as Russian profits. Only from the termination of transit of Russian coal through the port of Riga, the losses of the Latvian economy will reach 130-140 million euros a year. The coal in the total volume of cargo handled through the port is far not the largest share. Therefore, the total losses can amount to billions of euros.”
As noted by Alexander Nosovich, could Russia take into account the interests of the Baltic countries and not to deprive them completely of one of the most important sources of income that could keep afloat the economy of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia at a critical moment of the next default? Could, if the Baltic countries, their leadership itself took into account its national interests. These interests require, if not allied relations with Russia, the least neighbourhood policy. In the presence of the Baltic sea good neighbors Russia could invest in maintaining them good-neighbourly relations, not refusing completely from the transit of their goods through Tallinn, Ventspils or Klaipeda.
“But then between Russia and the Baltic States just don’t have is good neighbourly relations. “Black lists” is, the deportation of the Russian intelligence services and even European Pro-Russian experts, too, have the requirements to enter against Russia new sanctions are, there are accusations of Russia in violation of the Baltic States of human rights, the glorification of Nazi criminals, in the performance in the international arena the role of anti-Russian provocateurs. It’s all there. And no good-neighborly relations”.
Thus, it is clear that what is happening is only the beginning not very big ways to bring our Baltic partners in a sense. For petroleum products from the Baltic ports began to leave and the metal. During the 1990-ies of the metallurgical giants, enticed by the presence of upgraded transit capacity and cheaper than in Russia, tariffs, chosen for transshipment of its products to the Baltic ports. At the end of the decade there were overloaded about half of the exported metal. Watching flowing out of the country with goods, the government decided on the crackdown — during 2000, the Ministry of transport and communications has repeatedly raised the cost of transport of the metal rail is, in fact, cutting and metallurgical complex from foreign ports.
“As a result, from Klaipeda, Riga and Ventspils steel products moved to St. Petersburg. Protectionist measure had a beneficial impact on the Big port “Saint Petersburg”, where they cast anchor NLMK Vladimir Lisin, “RUSAL” Oleg Deripaska and “Severstal” Alexey Mordashov. After returning home, workers enthusiastically began to settle in the native land. In 2004, the structure of Vladimir Lisin has bought a controlling stake in OJSC “Sea port of Saint-Petersburg” offshore Nasdor, controlled by State Duma Deputy Vitaly Yuzhilin, and then bought at auction the state-owned enterprises at 48.8% of the shares. Example Lisin was followed by another steel magnate — owner of “Severstal” Alexey Mordashov, who several years later got in the port terminal of “Neva-Metal” by purchasing it from the National container company of the same Yuzhilin. Transactions allowed the port for a long time to consolidate the metallurgical goods, and still maintain its leading position in the region.”
Yet the problem remains of mineral fertilizers, timber and ro-ro cargoes. Nevertheless, even here the situation is gradually changing for the better. As noted in April 2016 a regular contributor to IA REGNUM Alexander zapolskis in the article “Pug dogadalis: Russia ceases to feed Russophobic regimes of the Baltic States”, gradually improving port facilities and developing its own transport infrastructure, Russia today came to the conclusion that more than 1/3 of containers ¾ export of gas, 2/3 oil exports, 67% of exports of coal and other bulk cargo, we can provide our own. It’s popular for the liberals the question about what “in this backward country gas station for ten years did not really built”. As it turned out — was built.
“And so many that need transit in the Baltic transport corridor almost disappeared. Rail transport — five times. For container — four. The volume of General cargo — three. Only 2015 transportation of oil and oil products via the neighboring ports fell by 20.9%, coal by 36% and mineral fertilizers — by 3.4%, although this indicator, they still retain a high degree of monopolization. However, by and large, all — freebie. Now Russophobes can walk on their own.
A sharp decline in cargo turnover of Baltic ports in the first quarter of 2016 (for example, in Riga — by 13.8%, in Tallinn — 16.3%) plays the role of the last straw can break the camel’s back. In fact, Estonia and therefore fuss that suddenly learned that by the end of this year in Tallinn port no work can be about 6 thousand people. And even up to 1.2 thousand will have to cut on the railroad, of which at least 500 people in the next 2-3 months. Moreover, the decline in freight volumes finally derails the entire economy of the Railways as Estonia and neighboring Lithuania and Latvia. They become totally unprofitable for both freight and passenger segments. For the country, which is only running a little more than 500 thousand people, of which 372 thousand are employed in the tertiary sector, is not just a sad prospect, and the collapse of the entire economy.
Accordingly, the picture for the economies of the Baltic Russophobia by 2020 is extremely joyless. Russia them as cut off from your transit, which in the 1990s gave them about 10% of the budget, and in addition, what is more important — employment of labor resources in the economy. In the same 2020-2021 years over most of the development programmes from the EU budget, which went to support the economies of the Baltic countries. Perhaps, given the withdrawal of Britain from the EU, these amounts will begin to decline earlier. So, in connection with PACSICOM already a problem for the Baltic States is the receipt from the EU budget 3 billion euros in 2017.
In these circumstances, seeing the inevitable end of anti-Russian policy, the elites of the Baltic countries use to create confidence in their policies and to distract its own population from the real problems of these countries last remaining in their possession argument — the myth of the Russian military threat. Because if only this myth to dispel, it appears that the slide of the economies of the Baltic States in the gap is caused not by Russia, but quite the contrary — the anti-Russian and Russophobic policy elites, which, of course, they must bear the responsibility not only to the Russian population in these countries, but also to their own.
Demographic trends are such that by 2040-2050 years the current population of the Baltic States will be reduced two times, and they physically are not able to ensure the functioning of existing commercial and industrial and commercial infrastructure on the territory of these countries left they have inherited from the great Soviet Union. In addition, the reduction of the population twice will result in a reduction of economies, with the result that these States will be included in the category of “failed” and totally subsidized.
Who will Finance it? And we need to be in this situation to introduce someone to the troops, if these areas and so will be ready to surrender to anyone who will take the trouble to Finance them? Therefore, the price paid for the Russophobia regimes of the Baltic States is bitter. Many of the figures of the current elite of these countries will see this even during his life.
