If trump can convince Japan to pay for “protection” at higher rates
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has promised to break the Alliance with the United States, if the new White house administration will demand that Tokyo increase the financial burden on the content of U.S. military bases in the country. This is with reference to the newspaper “Sankei” reported Opinion.ru.
Some “reliable sources” supposedly told Japanese publication the contents of a closed conversation Abe, which he held with his immediate environment after the announcement of the official results of the presidential elections in the United States.
According to the newspaper, the Japanese government is very concerned that Donald trump, as the new head of the White house, will break the us-Japan Treaty of mutual cooperation and security signed in 1960. He was, in fact, repeatedly promised to do during his election campaign. There was even talk about a possible withdrawal of American troops from Japan if Tokyo does not increase the costs of its content.
According to “Sankei,” Prime Minister Abe “intends to respond harshly,” if the negotiations with trump to be held in new York on 17 November, the financial issue will be raised again.
“This could be the reason to separate Japan from the United States” — the newspaper quoted the Japanese Prime Minister.
However, this issue is likely to arise. That was confirmed in a recent interview to TV channel NHK Advisor to trump on security issues between mizusawa, Bert. Moreover, he gave to understand that in addition to improving the cost base of Tokyo will still have to make a financial contribution to the maintenance of American nuclear forces that protect Japan, including North Korea.
Will it be possible in this case Abe to maintain its fundamental rigidity and after a meeting in new York? Or trump will still be able to “convince” him to pay more?
In Japan, indeed, very concerned about trump’s statements, which relate to its policy in Asia, — commented the head of the Center for Japanese studies, Institute of Far Eastern studies Valery Kistanov.
— Moreover, Japan is experiencing a shock due to the fact that the President of the United States was Donald trump. Because it was a surprise for everyone. They were confident that Clinton will win.
“SP”: — they are Not alone, as you know. But now it is more like a joke…
— It is clear. But I want to outline the context. Atmosphere in which to happen now Sino-American contacts.
Why Clinton? They just were confident that Clinton will continue the course that Obama spent in Asia. That is, will continue to pursue a strategy of so-called “turn” where one of the highlights is the concentration in the Asia-Pacific region’s main naval power of the United States.
To Trump any approaches they had not “sharpened”, so to speak, it is their policy. Now Abe asked him about an urgent meeting, which was then going at the APEC summit in Peru.
At this meeting in new York, apparently, and everything will become clear.
Because the Japanese trump statements that the allies — Japan, Korea — have to do to ensure its security, or to pay US the relevant amount was very unpleasant. And of course, they are concerned that it will be finished with this “pivot” towards Asia.
Therefore, we can assume that there are now all wondering what the heck this is all over.
“SP”: — how to understand this threat “to secede from the United States”?
— Me it is not quite clear. Here can be interpreted in different ways. For example, Abe said in anger. He’s bluffing. There are some inaccuracies in the translation. Or is it intentional stuffing, to see how trump responds.
But, in my opinion, all these statements trump — on the one hand, and Japan’s efforts as something to resist (defense Minister Inada has said that pay “enough” — about two billion dollars a year) — just search mutual positions. There is, so to speak, a certain “grinding”.
And how it actually all goes to speculation there is a wide field…
But one thing — populist statements. And another thing — given the real factors that are centripetal in Sino-American relations.
“SP”: — Explain.
— China — that’s the main problem, which causes headache, as in Tokyo and in Washington. Its growing economic power. Its growing military power. His ambitions are. Its expansion in the East China and South China seas. Territorial claims to Japan the same.
Now for Japan, China is the number one threat to security. Japan understands and is afraid that without the United States will not be able to resist this threat. To be alone with China without the US is a nightmare for the Japanese.
“SP”: — it Turns out that trump has “arguments” to force it to pay more?
Is, in principle. But as far as he is pedaling this point, is also unclear. Because the United States interest in Japan no less than Japan in the United States. Because the main — so to speak — “watershed” confrontational in this century will take place between the two superpowers. Star — USA. And the new, rising China. And to contain China in the Asia-Pacific region without the support of its allies — the same Japan, the same South Korea — the States can’t.
After all, in Japan, the largest concentrated U.S. armed forces abroad. Nowhere else is this concentration — neither in Europe nor in Africa, the middle East…
“SP”: — where It is fifty thousand?
— So. Japan, in fact, the whole post-war period, the cold war was for the United States in Asia unsinkable “aircraft carrier”. Then it was the “aircraft carrier” against the Soviet Union. Now against China.
But trump has agreed to the fact that not objected to the fact that Japan and South Korea have become nuclear powers. It is — nonsense. This is only in pre-election ebullience, you could say …
Imagine that Japan will become a nuclear power… It will turn the whole Asia. The whole world. And the United States are not interested in the fact that it happened. Because if Japan come out from under the American “umbrella” and become a nuclear power, you will not find anyone. And Japan can do it.
“SP”: — How?
— She has potential — technical, scientific. Even the stocks of plutonium are about 10.8 tons. Enough for hundreds of bombs.
What will follow is clear. Immediately South Korea armed. And the DPRK will further increase its nuclear capacity. Will start this race… we Need this in the United States?
And then, Japan and the United States, were bitter enemies during the war. And the us military is, for example, the thesis that the presence of US troops in Japan is the “cork in the bottle”, which does not break the will of Japanese militarism. This somehow did not say, but the problem with the agenda is not removed.
Trump is interesting — thinking about it or not thinking?
Another important point: Japan needs the US and as a deterrent to Russia. China is now for them, of course, the main theme. But we are also not in last place. But if you take the strategic deterrent forces, then Japan is absolutely indispensable for the United States as the main pillar of States, along with South Korea, in creating a global missile defense. To compensate for Russia’s strategic nuclear potential.
And this will only increase if the confrontation between Russia and the United States will continue. The optimism which is now among our political scientists, politicians and deputies, he, in my opinion, is not justified.
Therefore, to deter Russia Japan indispensable.
Probably know that recently, the United States deployed in South Korea several sets of the latest missile defense THAAD. They are more advanced than the famous Patriot. And Japan also wants to deploy such systems. And it will be a terrible blow to our nuclear capability. And there is a powerful radar that looking at the entire Chinese territory. And all our Siberia view, starting from the Far East.
The Japanese also have four destroyers equipped with American system “Indies”. It is now modernized, and they can shoot down our missiles launched from submarines in the Okhotsk sea and another path takeoff. It immediately lowers our potential retaliation in case of nuclear war.
Of course, the Americans appreciate it.
“SP”: — that is, in any case, Washington and Tokyo will come to a compromise?
Of course he’ll come. It is not necessary to rely on the fact that the US and Japan will fall out and scatter. To break off relations cannot be and speeches.
It Khrushchev at the time harbored such illusions. Was hoping after the war he manage to pull Japan from the States, giving her two “disputed” Islands — Habomai and Shikotan. That, incidentally, is recorded in the Joint Declaration of 1956. So what?
No one will break this Union.
