The Chairman of the Japanese government Shinzo Abe said that he intends to conclude with Russia a peace Treaty and resolve territorial dispute. Given the long history of the issue, the statement Abe can be considered very brave. “Allowing the territorial issue, we will put an end to the abnormal situation when between our countries and in 71 years after the war no peace Treaty,” he said. Adding that the signing of a peace agreement will open up great prospects for bilateral cooperation in energy, economy and other fields.
Generally, the entire history of our country’s relations with Japan after the Second world war “spun” around the Kuril Islands. Moreover, none of the parties did not intend to concede. The Kuril Islands on all international canons of law are considered to be Russian territory. They returned to the country at the end of world war II, where Japan was the losing side. By and large, no peace Treaty today, and is not required. Japan emerged from the war, signed the act of unconditional surrender. This means that Japan surrendered to the winners and may not have any claim.
It is clear that quite a different mindset in Japan. There’s the issue of the Kuril Islands has become almost a national idea. Policies beneficial to have a territorial dispute, because around it is possible to unite the nation and not responsible for the state of Affairs in the economy. Hence the rigidity with which Japanese policy raise the issue of the Kuril Islands.
Recently, the newspaper “Yomiuri” written, supposedly, the Japanese government is ready to conclude a peace Treaty, agreeing only on two Islands out of four. But then the official Tokyo gave a refutation, having declared that will demand from Russia of all four Islands.
But at the same time, it is clear that Russia to give up its territory can not. Then we see a new “round” of endless dispute. But is it possible to get away from this issue and to build relationships that make Russia and Japan are obvious benefits?
— Shinzo Abe can be called the politician of the new wave, and it will act as usual acted Japanese premiere, this should be ready, ” says MSU Professor Andrey manoylo.
In my view, if Abe has set a goal to solve the problem of the Kuril Islands and to conclude with Russia a peace Treaty, then it will be done.
Japanese Newspapers comment on the intentions of Abe from different angles, the low-ranking officials speaking with different assumptions, as can be solved the issues of Russian-Japanese relations. But none of them understand the actions of the Prime Minister, who acts very strongly and at the same time responsibly. Shinzo Abe leaves in a state of deep reverie the world elite and political elite of their own country. All I want to calculate the actions of Abe, but no one does not work. To understand the true intentions of Abe, through the interpretation of his officials it is completely hopeless.
If, nevertheless, the Russian Federation and Japan will sign a peace Treaty, then how will be solved the territorial dispute? The Japanese side were set a pre-condition. I think that concessions and now no one side will not. Russia clearly stated that it did not intend to cede their land and to sell their territory, regardless of any possible geopolitical benefits. The Japanese side knows our position and does not intend to try to change it. Our principles Japan perceives as a given.
Abe in this respect, seeking compromise. Which in historical terms would be acceptable to both sides. In search of this compromise Japan realizes that Russia will never concede four Islands, two or one. But if Abe says about the possibility of signing a peace Treaty, it says that Abe is not the politician who thinks short-term profits and political expediency. Abe thinks that historical categories, he understands that a peace Treaty will be a historic event for both parties. If the contract will be concluded, with the event name, Abe will go down in history.
It is possible that the question of the Kuril Islands and the peace Treaty issue will be divided. The Japanese side has already signified their intention when negotiating with Russia to bring the issue of the Kuril Islands of the brackets. If you now fail to work out a solution that would suit both sides, Japan can follow the initiative to freeze the Smoke issue for a while. Say, 50 or 100 years. To this question simply does not interfere with the development of bilateral relations.
I do not exclude that if Abe fails to find the approaches to solving the problem of the Kuril Islands, the Japanese Prime Minister will propose to put the question in brackets. And the peace Treaty still to be signed. And it will be an important event.
“SP”: — What impact have other States?
The development of Russian-Japanese agreements really closely watched by China, the European Union, United States. But the real possibilities to intervene and influence the position of the same Abe no one. For example, between Japan and the United States has enough of its own contradictions, which are themselves in need of resolution. In this respect, Tokyo will not accept the patronizing notes from Washington.
If we talk about China, then he carefully watches the rapprochement between Russia and Japan. Even just because Beijing is against Russia exactly the same policy. In the case of rapprochement with Russia, Japan and China are moving a race to see who will approach with Moscow. The rapprochement between Russia and China is intensifying in Japan, and the rapprochement between Russia and Japan makes efforts to become more engaged China.
China understands that the intensification of military cooperation with Russia stimulates the foreign policy of Japan. The region is a big game. But China and the United States could not influence the decision of the Japanese leadership to get closer to Russia.
“SP”: — But for the full cooperation of Moscow and Tokyo someone would still have to concede.
— Absolutely not necessary. A compromise is possible without fundamental concessions. If you think in historical categories and to plan the strategic partnership for decades to come.
Realistic rendering all the intractable issues of the brackets. There is a problem of the Kuril Islands. But if not to solve, then the parties agree to freeze the situation and not to raise the issue in the past fifty years. Then, this territorial dispute will not be so to affect bilateral relations.
Abe just emphasizes that if there is no solution to the territorial conflict, the most productive will fail to raise the issue.
The problem is that the new course of Japanese foreign policy when in power, Abe. If it will be replaced by more conservative policies, the chances of that now appear, will disappear. While in power, Abe, it is possible to develop Russian-Japanese relations is very intense and promising.
— Want normalization of relations, Japan and Russia, this is indicated by the heads of state, — said the head of the Center for Japanese studies, Institute of Far Eastern studies Valery Kistanov.
— Another thing is that when specifying the problems start. We disagree fundamentally questions on the territorial issue. Mixed with more American influence. The positive is that the leaders meet often, discuss the problem. Abe has put forward a new approach. However, while no one knows what it is. But agreed each year to meet in Vladivostok, and in December, Vladimir Putin will go to Japan. There will also be discussion of this issue.
Now Mature favorable conditions for the development of relations. But what happens in reality, it is difficult to predict.
“SP”: — so anyway, someone has to give?
— Without this in any way. Japan’s position that the four Islands should be returned, and there will be no compromise. Tokyo is not satisfied with the Declaration of 1956, which stipulates that can be returned to the two Islands. Maximum flexibility, which finished Japan really is to stretch the process of the transfer of the Islands at the time. They say that Russia will return two Islands first, and then, in the future, will give two more. But we are not satisfied because the transfer of the Islands would mean revising the results of world war II. We signed a Declaration from 1956, saying that it is ready to transfer two Islands, but only after signing a peace Treaty. Japan is not satisfied.
While the position is fundamentally different. On the Japanese side are “leaks” that supposedly new approach is the conclusion of a peace Treaty and the two Islands. But then the official Tokyo but this information was refuted. Japan requires four Islands and to compromise is not. Do not expect that Russia and Japan will soon sign a peace Treaty.
