It seems that Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown more than ever, the willingness to compromise with Japan, which is able to put an end to the territorial dispute between the two countries that emerged after the Second world war. Both parties may make tentative steps towards reconciliation, and it is possible that after many false starts can begin work on the conclusion of the agreement.
Recently giving an interview to Bloomberg, Putin explained why Russia and Japan have not reached an agreement. “We are talking about finding a solution where none of the parties will not feel enough, none of the parties will not feel or losers or losers”, he said. This is a very difficult time in the negotiation process. Russia, where pride in the victory of the country in the Second world war is one of the foundations of national identity, will be forced to abandon a small portion of its territory in order to end the dispute with Japan. Even Putin’s predecessor Boris Yeltsin, whose government was desperate for investment, and who were on a friendly footing with the Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto (Ryutaro Hashimoto), I could not bring myself to part with any of the South Kuril Islands, the rights which declared the Soviet Union at the surrender of Japan in 1945.
Closest to the agreement of the Soviet Union and Japan came in 1956, when the two parliaments ratified the agreement on the return of the Japan Islands of Shikotan and Habomai archipelago. In his interview, Putin said that Japan has refused to implement this agreement, “and then the Soviet Union would have also reduced all the agreements in the framework of this agreement”. But it was not so. The Soviet Union was furious from the agreement on defense between Japan and the United States in 1960, and declared that Tokyo will pass the island only after the Japanese site the full withdrawal of all foreign troops. The Soviets were afraid of American military presence in an important strategic position in the Kuril Islands, but the Japanese needed protection from the military power of the USSR, China and North Korea.
The next chance for the resolution of this territorial dispute appeared in 1990-ies under Yeltsin. But by that time was already accused that he sold to the West. In addition, he had excellent relations with Germany under Helmut Kohl, and the country has shown a willingness to increase their investment, transfer of technology and provision of technical assistance in gratitude for what Russia has agreed on its Association. Yeltsin was not a big supporter of centralization, and the Russian far East is far from Moscow. This region was largely left to himself, and he had urgently to establish economic relations with China and Japan.
Putin occupying more militant nationalist position was more difficult to discuss territorial concessions. In addition, when oil and gas were expensive, the state had a lot of money for investment in the far East, and it didn’t have to think about the threat of separation became an obsession for the Kremlin ruler. When Putin finally began to pay attention to the state programme for the development of the Kuril Islands, which was not under Yeltsin because of lack of funds. On Islands where the population is only 20,000 people, and in the first 15 post-Soviet years it gradually decreased, began to build new houses, roads and a modern airport, which helped to provide a more reliable transport links with the mainland. Support from the government and got fishing, which is in the Kuril Islands traditional occupation. It seemed that Russia has no reasons to return these Islands, especially due to the fact that one of them, the island of Matua, she was going to build a large base of the Pacific fleet.
In these calculations has made the changes the fall in oil prices and attempts by the West to isolate Russia after the conflict with Ukraine in 2014. Japan joined the anti-Russian sanctions and negotiate an end to the dispute stopped. It happened at the very moment when the deal was necessary for Russia more than ever.
Despite the budget constraints, Putin does not want to cancel the plans for the development of the Far East, about which he spoke during an interview with Bloomberg. Search and development of the vast wealth of minerals in the region, which accounts for 30 percent of Russia’s gold deposits, and where there are huge reserves of oil and gas requires improved infrastructure, accelerated training of engineering personnel and improvement of the living conditions of the local population. Putin also wants the far Eastern region became the new base for the Russian space program, and to this end, the Ministry built the spaceport. For the implementation of the state program on development of the Kuril Islands, through 2025, needs 70 billion rubles ($1.1 billion), and is more than get much larger regions.
Deviation from plans is not even considered. Putin is convinced that Western enemies dream about the collapse of Russia. For help the Kremlin has turned to China. But despite the willingness of the Chinese to cooperate in exchange for access to far Eastern resources, the strengthening of relations is a very risky business. Due to the confrontation with the West, China became the only major partner of Russia in the world, and Moscow fears the creeping colonization of the vast and scarcely populated far Eastern territories by the Chinese workers and farmers. Any deal with Chinese companies on lease lands in this region, the local press viewed it as an act of treason. Russia in this region are in need of another partner, preferably a rich and technically advanced.
The government of Shinzo Abe sensed this opportunity and in may began negotiations with Putin about increase in Japanese investment in exchange for the decision of the Kuril problem. Abe proposed a plan of cooperation in such areas as energy, transport, agriculture, technology, healthcare, urban infrastructure, culture, as well as small and medium businesses. In response Putin stressed that the Russian site are not for sale — but he gladly stepped up diplomatic contacts. The Abe government was so inspired that recently established a new Ministerial office for the coordination of economic cooperation with Russia. This post as additional burden, Abe gave the economy Minister Hiroshige Seko (Seko Hiroshige).
The meeting between Putin and Abe in Vladivostok, no breakthroughs were not. However, thanks to Putin’s opportunism solution is possible. The Soviet Union has already agreed to return two Islands. Putin will not be considered a traitor if it will eventually come back to the 1956 agreement, may, through an interim arrangement of joint administration.
While the Kremlin is being cautious, not wanting to sign anything. Putin, in an interview with Bloomberg said that this requires the same “high level of confidence which now exists between Russia and China. And he is clearly concerned about the strong links between Japan and the United States. He wanted assurances that Abe is just trying to make a purchase, and proposes to be a strategic ally of Russia in which it is very much in need in the far East.
