On the Kuril issue, written thousands of books and countless articles, but the relevance of this topic makes again and again to return to it. In Japan, these areas are called “North”. And in the higher echelons of power there are two opinions on this matter. One of them: you need to look for some mutually acceptable solutions to this problem. Second: stay your ground and demand the return of their territories.
The first opinion about a possible compromise advocated by the current Prime Minister Abethat he intends to solve this problem and thus once again to write his name in history, because this problem is unsolvable for the Japanese side seventy years, no politician has been able to achieve any concessions in this area. And the second position defends the Japanese foreign Ministry, he was opposed to go on some concessions. They are against any concessions by Russia, because they don’t want to feel pressure from the United States.
The General mood of the Japanese politicians rather skeptical. Most don’t believe in a progress on the issue of the Kuril Islands, because of the contact points is very small. The Japanese are already accustomed to the fact that the Kuril Islands are held by Russia. As for the public opinion in Japan, if to trust sociological polls, the young Japanese are no longer important — will return these territories or will not return. For them it is a forgotten “backwater”. To some extent this is of concern to those who live in the Northern Prefecture of Hokkaido, they still somehow support these requirements.
And only for the Japanese political elite that the most important strategic, economic, psychological point of Japanese politics. Japan today run the same “neocons”, as the United States. This is the most powerful political lobby in Japan. Of course, these forces are associated with multinational companies and with major world capital. So they really control the land of the rising sun.
And all the talk about the need for a certain “peace Treaty” is nothing more than diplomatic casuistry, which not having content! Why do we need this Treaty? It is an anachronism and a diplomatic incident. We have with Germany, our main enemy in the second world war, no peace Treaty! Even there is no agreement on the cessation of hostilities. We are we unilaterally terminated the state of war, the defeat of Germany and forcing her to sign a full surrender. That similarly was defeated and Japan, who also signed the surrender! What peace Treaty? We ended the war with Japan 60 years ago! Moreover, officially the state of war terminated 19 October 1956, when he signed a joint Declaration. In her first paragraph: “the State of war between the Union of Soviet Socialist republics and the government of Japan shall be terminated and restored full diplomatic relations…” what kind Of contract we say then?
The importance of the “Northern territories” is Japan in military-strategic terms. From a military point of view, not so much the Islands themselves are important, as the Straits between them. Prolific between the Islands to the North are shallow, and in winter the sea freezes there. So our Pacific fleet ships and submarines in the winter of the sea of Okhotsk can only pass through these Straits. Get them Japan, and the Russian fleet will be six months locked away in the far corner of the sea of Japan, and in the warm season will be “at pistol shot” to pass by the Japanese military bases in the Kuril Islands.
Of course, Smoking is also a major economic resource. On the Islands there is gold and silver. There is also a unique Deposit of rhenium, offshore there are oil and gas, all of it explored. Moreover, waters around the Kuril Islands is a real factory of biological resources for many tens of billions of dollars. And when the Japanese say they want to return these Islands, the matter is not about a few hundred square kilometres of land and thousands of square miles of economic zones that go with it! That is, giving even a single island, we immediately lose thousands of kilometers priceless fishing areas and control over strategic Straits!
It must be noted, that Japan is preparing for the return of the Kuril Islands not only through diplomatic means. The Japanese recently passed a law which allowed his “self-defense forces” to fight beyond the borders of Japan, which had previously been strictly prohibited by the Constitution. While the Armed forces in numbers and equipment ranked fourth after the US, China and Russia and superior to the UK, France and India. Japan’s military budget is comparable to the cost of China. It is known that the Japanese self-defense forces is one of the most advanced armies in the world, having armed with a large number of equipment, which is practically unknown to the world. Today Japan builds the most modern destroyers of the “Congo” equipped with modern complexes aegis, submarines, aircraft — analogues of American F-16, with a much greater potential impact. There is no doubt that KB Japanese monopoly, there are other technological developments. This is not surprising, when the level of technology possessed by Japanese industry. In the early nineties it was believed that the atomic bomb, the Japanese are able to do for six months. In Japan, it is all there! Plutonium, power, calculations. Allows not only the Constitution, but as we saw now and its starting to rule…
But Japan is unlikely today, is able alone to fight with Russia, and she never seriously this scenario is not considered. Yes, Japan has a highly technically equipped army, but Japan today is completely dependent country, which is still under American occupation. And demonstrative strengthening of defense capability is nothing more than a means of pressure on us, and suddenly we stumble, when one of our leaders say, “Well, okay. Let’s give the island”. To be at war with Russia, which has nuclear Arsenal is madness and suicide!
Of course, one of the main tasks for us is the development of the Islands. Because the lack of normal development is essential for provoking the surrender of the Islands. If today we have GDP decline of -1% and the economy generally in the red, we do not move, despite the fact that we will have the technology, despite the fact that we will have fish around Iturup. Therefore, the main way to deter Japan is the development of Russia.
The population of the Kurils term refers to the transfer of the Islands extremely critical. In the early 90’s, still had illusions about what that Japan will take the islanders, fed, dressed, put on shoes, and they will be the perfect Japanese. Today the islanders are categorically against the transfer of the Kuril Islands to the Japanese. Because, firstly, everything has already traveled to Japan, everything is looked, everyone knows what the Japanese are all well aware that the only option they will have is the status of disenfranchised ethnic groups like the Indians in the United States. That is, when the arrival of the Japanese, the people lose in this case virtually everything. Therefore, the local population acts very actively for the fact that no one tried to transfer the Kuril Islands. But how to keep the population here that does not see prospects of life here?
The main problem is communication. Extremely weak airfield network, not allowing full use of modern aviation. The second problem is the lack of adequate ports and wharfs, which could accept large vessels and to take out products. Today, all passenger services from Sakhalin are carried out by one transport-passenger vessel, which during the ten days passes whole of the Kurile Islands, and to the half of the Islands it can’t even stick, and landing — disembarkation is carried out from boats and from boats due to the lack of berths. That is the main problem that hinders the development of the Islands.
It is necessary to extend the state program of development of the Far East and in particular Smoking, which is just beginning to bear fruit.
Of course, it is necessary to strengthen the island militarily. To deploy modern weapons systems, primarily air defenses and high-precision cruise missiles, long-range, which would turn the island into a veritable fortress.
It is particularly sensitive for the Japanese would be our rapprochement with China. And here Japan needs to understand that the Russian response to any Japanese pressure can become immense geopolitical problem. The Alliance with China deprives Japan of any independent political importance in the region. Therefore, in the interests of Japan as soon as possible to find with Russia a political compromise.
