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The oil game: Russia holds “dual strike”

Нефтяные игры: Россия держит «двойной удар»


Oil! From it now very much depends. It increases and then drops in price. For Russia, oil is not hundred percent, but still half filling the budget. To circumvent this issue is important for our country would be ridiculous.

The fall in oil prices gave hope to our “Western friends” on financial and economic collapse of Russia. It would be foolish and absurd to deny dire consequences for our country, which has created a symbiosis of sanctions and falling oil demand. Then to the curve of demand for black gold was joined by captured Iranian sanctions, the forecast of lower demand for raw materials from China, and now you can take the interim results.

The inhabitants of the New world, making a bet on the shale revolution, can also summarize the expansion in the oil market.

According to the U.S. Department of energy, oil-producing States, such as Texas, have reduced oil production, due to closure or bankruptcy. This means that reduced tax payments to the Treasury, has suffered the servicing enterprises, those who lived at the expense of the wages of oil workers. Restaurants, bars, cinemas, and hair salons are closed. People remain without work, property prices are falling. The same pattern of decline and desolation live in North Dakota, Alaska, Oklahoma and Wyoming.

Analysts ‘ forecasts are disappointing: In the USA can shut down half of the independent oil companies, before the prices will return to previous levels.

Not better things and neighbouring Canada in the province of Alberta under reduction were 40 thousand people, which led to an increase in suicides by 30%. A third of people were willing to part with life.

These are the results of fluctuations in oil prices in the most successful economies in the world. In those without end we hold up as an example of the Pro-Western economists.

Let’s look at our handout traditionally the economy. So if things are bad in our country?

During the time of sanctions on the country have really grown in terms of GDP. Won’t listen to stupid people who say that tanks is not the washing machine. The law is immutable: the country must be adequately armed, and military technology always advanced. The fact that in the USSR they did not reach the consumer, was an institutional failure, not more. Options of the transfer technologies in the consumer sphere simply was not acquired.

No such mechanism now, but little by little he was trying to form. The closest example: the reformation of the military transport Il in passenger aircraft. It is still very far from what lies on the counter, but a lot of the country’s infrastructure and passenger comfort. As shown, foreign aircraft do not guarantee the security of their products – not the divine nectar, clothing and many things we prefer traditional.

But what is our oil industry? Because the country cares what happens to her. It fuels our investments in other projects, including new port infrastructure of the Far East, new roads, new technologies for consumer purposes.

And here our economy has proven remarkably resilient. Of course, oil companies have suffered, but…

Analysts Forbes stated the fact of the survival of the industry in a “double blow”. Anyway, even with the reductions, the company is not closed, the oil is extracted slowly. Debts threaten the industry no.

Predictions for the future of mankind vague, distant prospect. Richard Heinberg – employee of the analytical center of Post Carbon Institute, believes that “we are approaching the era of decline in oil production. Will increase due to this price? In the short term — no, because the demand for oil is currently not so high. Even the price is below thirty dollars a barrel is not much to stimulate demand. This implies that the global economy is on thin ice. One should not expect significant investment in this industry as long as the oil price will rise to $ 80-100 per barrel or more”.

This forecast means that the economy of the world is waiting for the deepening of the crisis. People will start to become poorer in the rich countries, and oil producing countries it’s time to forget about the luxury in which they lived.

There are other predictions, similar to the opinion of the chief economist of Saxo Bank Steen Jacobsen. He believes that “oil prices depend on dollar exchange rate, which, in turn, significantly influenced by the policy of the US Federal reserve. Therefore, I believe that in order to understand the dynamics of the oil market, it is necessary to monitor changes in the dollar. The fed raised interest rates and it is highly likely that the dollar with a peak will go down. Peak level dollar means the low oil prices. So I think that the average oil price next year will be much higher than the current range of 35 to 37 dollars per barrel. My opinion is that the price of oil in the next decade will range between $40 and $60 per barrel. I think there is a small chance, in this case favorable that next year oil will cost more than now forecasts the majority of experts. It is likely that in 2016 the average price of black gold will stop at $50”.

Here are two opposing views of financier and industrialist. It all depends on point of view.

We can only say that just in the next few years no one will be boring, obviously.

And you should pay attention on our economy, which on inspection turned out to be not so bad as it scolded our advanced Westerners. No, she did not bring the country an incredible service, but in complete hopelessness of the country is not plunged.

This experience, probably, it is necessary to analyze and to take it seriously. Such resistance is expensive in our world.

We don’t need in the coming years expected growth of the economy and extreme income, but also in the persistence of poverty does not threaten us. In fact, the country has preserved all the important enterprises and industries, did a good job in IT sector, pharmaceuticals and space. All this thanks oil.

Don’t believe those who say that Russia does not need the rise in oil prices. Rest assured that will not hurt. But our oil industry is alive and well in difficult conditions, so if the price curve will command “start” will Russia be ready. Suddenly the oil industry is the most advanced of the world economy load keeps poorly. We can say that the shale revolution is lost, and the industry is on the verge of collapse.

Perhaps it is time to examine our own experience, we add it to the achievement of other countries and to develop the kind of economic development that fits our country?

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