Amid falling revenues, the Russian government is preparing to save money. In conditions, when government spending accounts for 20% of Russia’s GDP, these plans will inevitably lead to a further drop in the standard of living of Russians. With this forecast in the next edition of “comments of the state and business” come the experts of the Higher school of Economics.
Hole in the Russian budget will amount to 3.2 trillion roubles in the current year and to shrink its $ 2 trillion in 2016, you will need to spend the entire Reserve Fund, to put under the knife of the NWF, and it’s also-need “efforts of the whole society,” the economists warn.
“Freeze Federal spending will negatively affect the economic growth and the living standards of the population”, – said the lead researcher, “development Center” HSE Andrew Cherniavsky. He recalled that the government’s refusal to increase spending in nominal terms implies a reduction in real terms — that is adjusted for inflation.
When compared with pre-crisis levels, the Ministry of Finance plans imply cuts of 25% in 2019-th year), calculated at the HSE.
The key question — how to index salaries to state employees, and would cut military spending, said the former head of the “development Center” HSE and now a senior fellow at the Brookings Sergei Aleksashenko.
“The fiscal policy, which seems to have been approved at the highest level, perpetuates the stagnation in the Russian economy, which will go the harder, the longer it will last,” says Aleksashenko.
According to Rosstat, in may 2016, real disposable monetary incomes of the population fell by 5.7% (after falling by 4.3% in 2015-m to year), real wages decreased by 1% (after falling by 9.3% a year earlier).
The average salary in the country amounted in may to 36 thousand rubles, average per capita income of 28 thousand rubles.
In the first quarter and 15.7% of the population (i.e. one in seven) live below the poverty line. At 22.7 million Russians income did not exceed the subsistence minimum amounted 10524 rubles for the working population and 8025 rubles for pensioners.
By the end of 2015 the poverty line in Russia has stepped over 3.1 million people.
According to the forecast of the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev, the fall in real incomes will continue as 2016 and 2017.
