Increasing relevance in world politics gaining speed and, most importantly, the results of the upcoming elections of the President of the United States. They’re closely watching in East Asia, where shifting the center of gravity of the new global political game.
In this case, both the leading Asian powers (Japan and China) with the same wariness perceived foreign policy speech of Donald trump, the main phenomenon of the current presidential race. What at first sight seems rather strange, considering the growing confrontation mutual positioning on the world stage Tokyo and Beijing.
To place will notice that the “D. trump effect” is a consequence of a fundamental trend in the attitudes of the American public, which without exaggeration can be called a revolt against the domination in political elite of the US “neocon-democratizers”, this reincarnation of the Trotskyists of the 20-ies of the last century.
People of the business world, D. trump, by definition, must have a strong scent trapping “of fluids”, which is formed in the space of spontaneous, politicized and new “clientele”.
The latter sends interlocking signal: we can’t let the international gang behind the scenes and continue to use in order to obscure the power of the American state (above all, its armed forces); it is time to concentrate on solving increasingly less tolerant of internal social problems.
The main content of the public (often extravagant in form) performances and D. trump is, first, the statement is actually anti-national internal and external policy of previous US administrations and, secondly, the submission to the electorate’s own vision for its correction.
The main component of the election strategy D. trump, which (very carefully) can be called a policy of “neo-isolationism” is a response to the sentiments in American society. It can be expressed approximately by the following message to U.S. allies: “isn’t it time you guys take care of their security. Or at least not to be greedy in the cost of maintaining the overseas contingents of our armed forces.”
Is crucial to note the different reactions to this message in Europe and Japan (a key American ally in East Asia). In Europe, mostly easy to respond to (hypothetical) military withdrawal of the United States, for a long time do not see real threats to their safety. The exception is unless a number of limitrophe formations in the East of the continent.
In Japan, “remarks Donald trump about the necessity of withdrawal of troops” from the country, as well as the Council to acquire its own nuclear weapons caused, as neatly expressed by one of the leading Newspapers Mainichi Shimbun, “the confusion in government.” Commenting on these “remarks”, the head of the government, Yoshihide Suga, in particular, expressed the hope that “whoever becomes President [USA], the Japan-us Alliance in the security sphere will remain the cornerstone of the diplomacy of our countries.” In addition, he confirmed the intention of the government of Japan to adhere to the known principle of “three no” in the field of nuclear weapons.
Soon followed the “clarification” by D. trump its position on a very sensitive point of the problems of maintaining strategic stability in the region, too, was not very successful. In response to the explanation that he actually meant not the militarization of Japan, but only more generous financial support are the American group here, no less authoritative Japan Times recalled that at the end of the Japanese budget is annually allocated us $ 1.7 billion).
At the same time, however, the altercation one of the two contenders for the post of President of the United States with a key Asian ally is not ended, but has moved into the sphere of the economy. Denoting themselves as a “big supporter of relations with Japan” by D. trump nevertheless said that the United States should not “subsidize the Japanese economic Behemoth with his cars and all the rest”.
Here he indirectly touched upon the painful problem of the structure of bilateral trade with a negative (for US) with balance, which for several years remained the main obstacle to the conclusion of negotiations on the formation of the TRANS-Pacific partnership (TPP).
It should be noted that open and categorical opponent of TTP is a contender for the presidency from the Democratic party, Bernie Sanders (another very remarkable figure of the current election race), to which D. trump treats with respect. That contrasts sharply with his assessments of Hillary Clinton – the rivals B. Sanders and protege of the “neocons”.
While the economy remains the main component of D. trump’s claims and to China, where his performances also include extreme attention. Here it is also caught by the language, noting in particular that the American trade deficit with China is not 500, but “only” 366 billion.
In General, as shown by the statements of experts from China’s leading research centers, related to the phenomenon of D. trump” in China is not well established. Mostly skeptically assessed his chances to occupy the highest office in the United States. Not excluded, however, that such rating is influenced by emotionally charged anti-Chinese attacks D. trump.
However, it is important to note that China has not crystallised any definite opinion regarding the U.S. role in regional Affairs. On the one hand, Washington’s policy in Asia Pacific the obvious way contains elements of containment of China. At the same time in Beijing are aware that a (hypothetical) military US withdrawal from the front line of confrontation with China could provoke the occupation of the same position Japan, which quite clearly claims to be one of the leading players in the region East Asia and the world in General.
The complexity of the situation in the Asia Pacific region, which is becoming increasingly important factor in the Sino-Japanese confrontation, and is a major cause of the nerve (unlike Europe) the response of the leading Asian powers on “neoisolationist” escapades D. trump.
It should be noted that the obvious populism, and also “bloopers” in public speeches – things are pretty normal for a beginner in “Big politics”.
It is necessary, however, to stress once again that the extravagant in the form of statements of one of the two leaders of the current presidential race in the US reflect the fundamental shifts in the attitudes of the American public.
In the case of occupation of the presidential post, the author of such statements will give them (efforts of experienced advisors) prihlaseni-diplomatic format. While maintaining the same semantic content of the current foreign-policy “message” D. trump their practical implementation can have the radical influence on the political situation in the world, primarily in East Asia.
