Due to large-scale territorial conflict in the South China sea, the countries of South-East Asia interested in a larger number of players in the region. Today this role is played by external middle powers – Japan and India. Similarly and Russian involvement in regional Affairs, most likely, would be welcomed by local governments.
By 2016, Russia came to a new stage of activity in the Asia-Pacific region. The current “turn to the East” is much criticism for the lateness, opportunistic and rebellious character, caused by the crisis in Ukraine. One of the main issues that critics of “turning” the present Russian leadership, we can assume a bias towards China and a General imbalance in the Eastern strategy of Russia. But just South of the main Asian partner of Russia are the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), home to more than 600 million people. By 2050, these ten countries of South-East Asia collectively are going to become the fourth economy in the world.
For the new Russian policy in Asia the ASEAN countries are more likely to be just a beautiful ending of the series, which outlines the forms of participation of Russia in the region. Question about the qualitative content of interaction between Russia and the countries of Southeast Asia remains open. The twentieth anniversary of the establishment of the dialogue partnership Russia – ASEAN, the parties which celebrate this year’s large-scale summit in Sochi, is a good occasion to take stock of the development of relations, as well as to analyze possible new growth areas.
The prolonged start
Russia is difficult to boast of a rich history of positive relations with the countries of ASEAN – the grouping itself, as a majority of its members before the collapse of the Soviet Union lived in constant opposition of the “red threat”. The exception was except that Vietnam and under its strong influence of Laos and Cambodia. Although in the 1990-ies, and these relationships were going through hard times. The new Russia is simply not enough resources to even maintain relations with the traditional partner, not to mention their expansion.
However, in July 1996 at the 29th annual Ministerial meeting of ASEAN-Russia received the status of dialogue partner. It has set up permanent mechanisms of cooperation, and Russia was recognized by the state, meriting the attention of the organization. In the same year, Russia has expressed a desire to participate in only began his work summit “Asia – Europe”.
In the mid-2000s, Russia has again had the opportunity to develop relationships with geographically remote regions. Began to strengthen Russia’s role as a champion of multipolarity. The development of relations with ASEAN fits in well with this course. In 2004, Russia joined the Agreement on friendship and cooperation in Southeast Asia, and in 2005 President Putin, taking part as an observer in the East Asian summit, declared that Russia aspires to be part of this forum. Russia then politely refused, citing the immaturity of its relations with ASEAN.
Such underdevelopment persisted in the following years. Russia’s interest in Southeast Asia in the 2000s was unsustainable, and the meeting of the Russia – ASEAN irregular. The first summit of the dialogue partnership was held almost 10 years after its creation – in December 2005, and the second only in 2010, although it was initially planned to hold such events annually. In 2010, Russia took the participants of the summit “Asia – Europe” in 2011 – the East Asia summit. In addition, Moscow began to participate in one of the most interesting asianization formats – the meeting of defense Ministers of ASEAN and dialogue partners (ADMM+).
The current stage of relations between Russia and ASEAN can be counted from the beginning of the third presidential term of Vladimir Putin in 2012. Observers were encouraged by the foreign the may presidential decree – in the list of geographical priorities, the region is third after the CIS and the EU. And in the Asian section was of importance to Russia’s participation in regional integration, including dialogue partnership with ASEAN and participation in the East Asian summit. The entry of Vietnam in the program document of the foreign expert community celebrated as a holiday.
Expectations of a jump in Russia’s cooperation with South-East Asia fueled and serious attitude of the government for the APEC summit in Vladivostok in 2012. But as soon as the summit ended, the activity in this area has declined sharply. In November hosted the East Asia summit (the first for Russia as a full participant), on which all the countries of the forum were presented by the heads of States and governments, except for Russia.
Discomfort entrenched after the publication in February 2013 of a new edition of the foreign policy Concept of the Russian Federation. The Asia-Pacific region dropped to fourth place among regional priorities, replaced by the United States, and in the Asian part at the fore of the SCO. From South-East Asia in the document was only Vietnam that has overtaken not only by China, India and Japan, but Mongolia and North Korea.
The sources of foreign policy Southeast Asia recently appeared in the presidential address to the Federal Assembly in 2015. Then Putin not only has paid attention to created in the same year the free trade area of the EAEU – Vietnam and recalled the commemorative summit ASEAN – Russia in Sochi in may 2016. He also put forward the idea of establishing “economic partnership” of the EEU, the SCO and ASEAN, which focuses on the issues of investment protection, streamlining procedures for the movement of goods across borders, joint development of technical standards for the production of the next technology generation, on the reciprocal opening of market access services and capital”.
Who, besides Vietnam?
The political and strategic presence of Russia in Southeast Asia is confined to a strong partnership with Vietnam, which in the near future may begin to lose its relative importance as a convergence of this country with the United States, India, Japan and the EU.
Relations with Vietnam have the status of “comprehensive strategic partnership”. Based on this formula, for Hanoi no partner is more significant than Russia, except, of course, China, which had earned the status of “comprehensive strategic partnership and interaction”.
Russian-Vietnamese summit or high level are held annually and are always accompanied by abundant positive rhetoric. The high status of the relationship and the significant volume of transfers of weapons to Vietnam give Russia preferential terms when using deep-water port of Cam Ranh, where until 2002 was the point of logistics of the Russian (and formerly Soviet) Navy. In 2014, Vietnam has simplified the procedure of entering the port for Russian ships. Moreover, due to leaks from the White house in 2015 became aware of the fact that the airfield at Cam Ranh Bay used by Russian air refueling tankers serving the Tu-95.
While significant volumes of military technical cooperation continue to bring Russia political dividends in Vietnam. Unfortunately, such relations with other countries in South-East Asia, Russia today does not have.
If you look at the economic forms of the Russian presence in the region, the picture is even less attractive. Due to the low base in the last decade, the growth rates of trade between ASEAN – Russia look impressive. In the period from 2005 to 2014, the trade turnover increased more than five times. However, even after such growth in 2014 (the last year before the sharp drop in Russia’s foreign trade Russia’s trade with the countries of South-East Asia amounted to only $21.4 billion made It Russia’s 14th trading partner, tens of ASEAN. In foreign trade Association, Russia accounted for less than 1% of the total ASEAN trade in Russian is 2.7 percent. In the structure of Russian exports were dominated by mineral resources (60%), machinery and equipment (14.5 per cent) and chemicals (13.8 per cent).
In the investment field, Russia also does not seem a strong player. In 2012-2014, the economy of ASEAN countries it is $698 million Russian investment is 0.2% of the total incoming volume. Of this amount, $420 million was invested in one year in one country (Vietnam, 2013) that shows a weak diversification of Russian investment strategy in the region.
On the level of ambition Russia has demonstrated a desire to increase the volume of trade. At different times sounded plans to double the volume of bilateral trade with Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia. To do so, the parties will attempt through trade in national currencies and using such initiatives as the free trade area of the EAEU – Vietnam, which is declared as one of the steps towards overall liberalization of trade between the EAEU and ASEAN.
If we talk about the strengths of the Russian economic presence in the region, here are three advanced and already traditional for the Russian industry – oil and gas, nuclear energy and military-technical cooperation. Today Russian oil and gas bought Singapore and Malaysia. A number of projects are implemented with Indonesia, but a leading partner of Russia in the region in this area remains Vietnam with several projects on the territory of the country, and in Russia.
In the nuclear power industry Vietnam is again the most successful example of cooperation. Russia is building in the South of NPP “Ninh Thuan-1”, provides related services and training. In addition, since 2007 Russia offers nuclear power plant construction in Myanmar, but in 2015 there were some positive changes in this direction. In 2014, signed a Memorandum of understanding in the field of peaceful nuclear energy with Thailand, and in 2015 Russia joined the research and development of nuclear reactors in Indonesia.
It was the Russian weapons remain one of the most popular goods in the markets of South-East Asia. Historically the largest buyer of Russian weapons has been and remains Vietnam. Among the major purchases – fighters, frigates, anti-ship missiles, air defense systems and submarines “Varshavyanka”, the latter of which will be delivered to Vietnam in late 2016. In addition, Vietnamese shipyards under license to produce corvettes “tarantula”.
Indonesia also buys Russian military equipment – infantry fighting vehicles, helicopters and fighter jets. For aircraft there are orders in Malaysia, and recently it became known about the possible expansion of supply in Thailand. In the late 2000s and early 2010s, Myanmar has purchased a number of MiG aircraft and cooperation with this country can be continued.
Reasons for the lag
Thus, cooperation between Russia and ASEAN today is more fragmented and slightly in volume and depth. Such underdevelopment for several reasons.
First, the countries of Southeast Asia have never been among the priorities of Russian foreign policy. In the foreground there are relations with Europe and the United States. Not less important for Russia in its immediate environment. Today the main resources of the foreign countries is aimed at solving these problems, as well as for military and diplomatic engagement in the middle East. In the “pivot to the East” Southeast Asia pales into insignificance compared to the relations with China.
Secondly, a new development relationship with ASEAN countries is complicated by the weak political and economic base. While Russia has accumulated the necessary resources to “pivot to the East”, the other players – especially China and the United States – had much to gain a foothold in Southeast Asia. China is one of the most important neighboring regions, the favorable position in which it is necessary for a peaceful development. USA with the beginning of the policy of rebalancing has been given South-East Asian special attention. Against this background, Russia is playing catch-up role player forced to re-take many of the steps of overcomplicated competitors.
Third, due to geographical remoteness and lack of General history of Russian society and the elite have little idea of the situation in the region. Interpersonal communication – the weakest part of the relations between Russia and ASEAN, they look very modest, even in comparison with economic cooperation.
Territorial disputes
One of the main sources of problems for Russia’s relations with South-East Asia will be the escalation of territorial disputes in the South China sea. Today, Russia’s position is purely neutral – Moscow does not support the territorial claims of draws. On the contrary, it advocates the settlement of disputes by political and diplomatic means, the observance of the Declaration on the conduct of parties in the South China sea, the early conclusion of the code of conduct of the parties and for the commitment to international law.
One more point of the Russian position, although it has been voiced before, recently forced to speak about rapprochement of positions of Moscow and Beijing. In April 2016, the Minister of foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov said that Russia does not support internationalization of the disputes in the South China sea, which caused a great endorsement of the Chinese side and serious tension in Vietnam. This position of Russia is a logical continuation of the General ideological line of Russian foreign policy in opposition to any outside interference.
This case shows that the perception and the political consequences of Russia’s position will change, even if the position itself remains unchanged. This will occur as the deterioration of the situation around the South China sea. Participating countries the territorial dispute will seek to enlist the support of external players, and the internationalization of the dispute will undoubtedly continue.
Paradoxically, the statements of Russia against the internationalization of the dispute, on the contrary, promote her. In its current form, the position of Moscow plays in favor of the Western narrative that is weakened by sanctions and quarreled with the West, Russia was in political dependence on Beijing, which will take advantage of this and force Russia if not to take a Pro-Chinese position, at least to remain silent in case of transition of the conflict into a military phase.
Today a great success of Russian diplomacy will be to maintain strategic partnerships with China and with Vietnam at the current level even as the situation in the South China sea will continue to deteriorate. This requires bilateral diplomatic channels to counter attempts to draw Russia into a territorial dispute and to interpret the Russian position as Pro-Chinese or Proletarskoy.
At the same time, continuing military-technical cooperation with Vietnam, Russia increases the cost for China from a hypothetical armed conflict. It can reduce the risk of armed conflict in the form if in parallel will develop mechanisms Sino-Vietnamese political communications to prevent accidental clashes. Therefore, this form of participation of Russia in resolving the conflict in the South China sea may be a promising approach.
In the more General context of the developing confrontation between the US and China in South-East Asia, Russia does not seem an indispensable element of the regional system. Russian involvement is not seen as important neither in Washington nor in Beijing, although it has to both capitals sample value.
Waiting to see whether Russia in South-East Asia?
Is it possible to say that in a diplomatic sense, ASEAN is waiting for Russia in the region? The ASEAN countries are interested in greater number of players in the region. Today this role is played by external middle powers – Japan and India. Similarly and Russian involvement in regional Affairs, most likely, would be welcomed by ASEAN countries.
The emergence in the region of the player, which is close to China, but it is not its ally, might be a safe way to weaken the Chinese sense of self is besieged fortress, for now, the regional balance of power is all against China.
Another question – whether Russia is ready to play such a role? If she could talk to ASEAN countries about the things that are relevant to them? While such opportunities are limited, as the desire of the Russian leadership to engage in regional processes. The Russian interest in the region is now perceived primarily in terms of preserving the quality of the strategic partnerships with China and Vietnam – and that is what determines Russian positions on most issues.
