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The ECB does not preclude easing of an economic recession and rising oil prices

ЕЦБ не исключает смягчения рецессии в России и роста цен на нефть

Experts from the European Central Bank (ECB) expect the gradual easing of the recession in Russia and assume that it will support the growth of the global economy.

However, once the intelligence Bulletin, the ECB noted that economic uncertainty in the Russian Federation remains high, and the level of trust of business is low, while low oil revenues continue to limit government spending, according to RNS.

The European Central Bank also notes the easing of financial conditions in Russia in 2015, however, indicates that the cost of borrowing is still high in Russia.

The ECB also predicts that world oil prices will start to rise in 2017. “From 2017 onwards, at least the main risks (a tributary of Iranian oil, the American shale oil) continues, an increasingly likely option would be it (oil prices — ed.) increased, because less investment may result in a more rapid achievement of balance of supply and demand when the acceleration of the recovery of economic activity than is reflected currently in the futures curve”, – explained in the Bulletin of the regulator.

Based on current futures curve, the market expects that oil prices will remain in the range of $30-45 a barrel in the next 2 years, stated in the Bulletin.

The theoretical lower bound of oil prices linked to the level of marginal cost for shale oil in the US, which are estimated at average $35 a barrel was stressed by the ECB.

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