To put money in a short-term Deposit became unprofitable. Russian banks continue lowering rates on deposits. To obtain annual yield above inflation is possible only by long deposits (with a maturity more than one year) with interest capitalization. Banks have lots of liquidity, and to pay high interest rates on deposits there is no need. To convert liquidity to loans is not the interest on the loans is high and the demand for them is small.
Sberbank has lowered interest rates on deposits of natural persons 1 PP in rubles and 0.5 percentage points in the currency. 25 APR maximum rate of 7.76% per annum (the contribution for three years — more than 2 million rubles. with capitalization of interest), the minimum of 5.05% (for contributions of less than 100 thousand rubles for three years).
The minimum rate on foreign currency deposits is 0.01%, the maximum contribution to the $ 2.06 per cent, in euros — actually 0,66% per annum. The best contribution to British pounds, and 0.7% and 2.7% per annum.
Ruble rates on deposits in other banks will also decline. Chairman of the management Board of VTB24 Mikhail Zadornov said recently that the decline “must be, because rates, the cost of money moving down.
Now VTB24 rate on the Deposit “Savings” for a period of three to six months taking into account the capitalization of interest is only of 4.87% for amounts of 200-700 thousand.
Annual return of 5-6% is below current inflation, and its projected year-end level. In other words, the real yield is negative. Currently, inflation in annual terms is 7.2–7.3 percent (at the end of December 2015, the price increase was 12.9%). The Bank of Russia in its underlying inflation forecast gives the plug of 6-7% at the end of this year (by the end of 2017, the regulator sets a target of 4%).
The Minister of economic development Alexey Ulyukayev predicts that at the end of the year inflation will drop to 6.5%. Chief economist for Russia and CIS Bank of America Merrill Lynch Vladimir Osakovsky waiting for 6.4 percent.
“We cut our inflation forecast for 2016, given the weaker than expected consumer price index in the first quarter of 2016. When the rate of annual inflation at only 7.3% in March, rising prices have already reached levels which we expect only in the third quarter of 2016. Therefore, we reduce our forecast from 6.6 to 6.4% by the end of 2016 and from 7.9 to 7.5% — in 2016, the average” — quoted by his Agency RNS.
But, most likely, banks will continue to lower interest rates on deposits. First, from the third quarter of this year will increase the rate of deductions in Fund of obligatory insurance of deposits with 0.1 to 0.12%, and these increased costs will be offset by the customers. Secondly, the amount of liquidity in the banking system high, and to put it nowhere.
“Directions for placing the funds received from the banks a bit. In particular, the possibility of credit expansion minor: Economics is little reliable borrowers, makes the demand for loans at current rates. In such circumstances, most credit institutions do not have incentives to increase the attractiveness of Deposit terms. For the same reasons, gradually reduced interest rates on loans,” — said TASS chief analyst of the Bank Natalia Vasilyuk.
According to the Ministry of economic development, the volume of individuals ‘ deposits for 2015 increased by 25.2% to 23,219 trillion the Volume of deposits of legal entities grew by 11.8% to 19,018 trillion rubles.
The volume of credits and other placed funds granted to non-financial organizations, in 2015 increased only by 12.7%, to 33,301 trillion, while the volume of credits to physical persons in General fell by 5.7%, to 10,684 trillion rubles. for Example, according to the Central Bank, banks in 2015, has issued about 700 thousand mortgage loans totaling RUB 1.16 trillion, which was 1.5 times less than in 2014, when it was issued to 1.76 trillion rubles.
The arrears in companies has grown over the past year, from 4.2 to 6.2%, the population from 5.9 to 8.1%.
Another problem is foreign currency deposits. Current extremely low interest rates on foreign currency deposits should encourage citizens to translate them into rubles. Demand for foreign currency loans in Russia and dollars of credit institutions is too much. The head of Sberbank German Gref said that his Bank “a great excess of currency liquidity”.
Wait rapid credit growth is not worth this year.
The Central Bank conducts moderately tight monetary policy and keeps key rate at 11%, which does not allow banks to significantly reduce their interest rates on loans (although the regulator and the banking community prefer to assert that loans are expensive due to the high risks in the economy).
As a result the demand for loans at rates of 15-20% for the real sector and 25% for the population minimum. According to experts of “RIA Rating”, corporate lending growth in 2016 could reach 5-8%, retail lending will grow by 2-6%.
However, banks (especially the largest — Sberbank, VTB, etc.) gradually to adapt to changing conditions. Their profits this year, according to the forecast of the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, will be about 500 billion RUB compared to 192 billion rubles in 2015. In the first quarter of the aggregate profit of the domestic banking sector is 109.3 billion rubles. Shareholders may be happy, the customers are forced to make difficult decisions.
