New opportunities of Russian fuel and energy complex
Since the 70-ies of the last century, when they discovered the largest deposits of hydrocarbons in Western Siberia oil industry is the flagship of the Russian economy. Now this segment is under considerable pressure, linked to falling oil prices and anti-Russian sanctions have created obstacles to the introduction of new technologies of extraction of raw materials. “Ribbon.ru” has decided to understand the prospects of the Russian oil industry.
First among equals
According to CDU TEK, in February 2015, Russia increased oil production by 5.3 percent compared to the same period last year. Total for the month was produced by 43.1 million tons. The statistics reacted by Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, pojasnili that in 2016 compared to 2015 “our production will increase, not decrease”. “The forecast level of 1.5 per cent,” said Dvorkovich.
A similar pattern was observed in the past year. So, according to statistics of the International energy Agency (IEA), Russia, contrary to expectations of experts, has boosted oil production to compensate for the negative effect of the recession and sanctions. While at the Agency suggest that in 2016, oil production will remain at the same level, but next year will start to decrease, in order for the country to fulfill the commitments made under the February agreement with OPEC to control prices for raw materials.
I must say that the production growth against a background of serious reduction of prices on oil, which in two years has amounted to in dollar terms by nearly two-thirds from the level in 2014. In this regard, according to investment firm Morgan Stanley, in 2015, capital expenditures for the domestic oil industry has decreased by almost 20 percent, while reducing costs occurred in the context of the fall of the ruble for the same period of 37 per cent.
Long-term forecast for oil production in Russia, which recently made the Ministry of energy of the Russian Federation, having issued it in the form of General schemes of development of the Russian oil industry by 2035, suggests the decline at 1.2 percent in the optimistic scenario and to 46% in critical. The Ministry took as a basis for analysis indicators 2014, the price for Urals oil at $ 50 per barrel by 2020 and 97.5 dollars by 2030. The Department also predict that operated now of the field will provide less than half of the total production level. To prevent the decline in production, the Ministry of energy proposes to grant private companies the right to develop the Arctic shelf (now it can only deal with companies with state participation), to ease tax regime and to stimulate the processing of high-sulfur and high-viscosity oil.
However, it is already clear that for the strategy of the Ministry in addition to low oil prices the industry will have to seriously combat the negative effect of sectoral sanctions against Russian oil companies in July 2014. Russia is under economic sanctions the US, EU, Norway, Japan, Australia and Canada; restrictive measures touched on such significant companies as “Rosneft”, “Transneft”, “Gazprom”, “Gazprom Neft”, “LUKOIL”, “Surgutneftegas”. American and European companies banned exports of goods and technologies that can be used in the Russian projects of oil in deep water, the Arctic shelf or in shale formations — in other words, in those projects that we intend to develop.
The oil industry remains extremely important for the country’s economy from the point of view of Russian exports, although its share in total Russian commodity flow abroad, according to the head of the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina, and fell from 67 per cent in 2013 to 48 per cent in December last year.
Photo courtesy of the press service of Expocentre
The place for innovation
In view of the above, the most pressing issues that the industry are trying to solve at the present time, are the substitution and extraction of unconventional oil (TRIZ).
The substitution of the oil industry is necessary, as, according to various estimates, the rate of dependence of the Russian oil industry from import of technology and equipment is in a classic production about 60 per cent, and in the technologies of production stimulation (e.g., fracturing reservoir) — 95 percent, in the development of the sea shelf is 98 percent. In particular, this is evidenced by the head of the press service of PJSC “Gazprom automation” Eugene Boguk. According to him, “if now is not the most important thing, one of the most important areas in the industry, as there are problems with element base (components) in the production of high-tech equipment”.
Accordingly, industrial research institutes and manufacturers of infrastructure facilities aim to offer technologies that can functionally replace the existing foreign counterparts and give them the quality.
TRIZ problem is not less actual, as in Russia significantly increased the number of fields, to develop methods which you need it to TRIZ, otherwise production becomes economically inefficient.
In particular, to those include old fields, the share of output which is 80 per cent, and the proportion of water content is 95 percent. By the way, they now account for about 17 percent of Russian oil production. The main problem here is that at high water cut producers in such fields produce more water than “black gold”, is approximately 18 to 20 tons of water per ton of oil, which significantly increases the production cost. The decrease in the water content of just one percent can reduce operational costs by 15 percent.
Photo courtesy of the press service of Expocentre
The second significant category of TRIZ are shale formations, on which a few years ago an American company. Russian oil shale reserves are estimated at five billion tons of crude oil and natural gas at 3.7 billion tons. The development of this type of fields requires its own approach and technologies to ensure that our petroleum and gas industry did not depend on imports.
And finally, in the third — pre-Jurassic oil deposits, i.e. deposits of deep bedding. Currently this category includes about 50 fields, and many industry experts believe that their potential is just as great as open in the Soviet era fields in Western Siberia.
Trade show
Of course, in industry and in the satellite areas are not idle. I must say that in “SKOLKOVO” the questions the FEC is dedicated to the approximately 100 projects, of which 30-40 are close to practical implementation. Similar work carried out oil with gas, with its own scientific base and scientific institutes. But without discussion and sharing of experience this work may not be as effective as we would like.
Photo courtesy of the press service of Expocentre
For “sharing wisdom” representatives of the FEC use different platforms. One of the most important is the “national oil and gas forum” and the exhibition “Neftegaz”, which this year are being held simultaneously at one site on the territory of “Expocentre”, from April 18 to April 21. The exhibition will present a wide range of innovative developments, the forum will bring together over 700 companies from 30 countries, including key participants of the Russian market, such as “Transneft”, “Gazprom” and “Tatneft”, “Packer”, and transnational corporations — ABB, Schneider Electric, Mitsubishi Electric and Honeywell.
According to the Chairman of the Union of oil and gas Industrialists of Russia Yuri Shafranik, for three years, the forum and exhibition have become significant phenomena and “has concentrated the efforts of line ministries, major companies, scientific organizations, independent expert community in the search for solutions in the development of oil and gas complex and in a short time gained international recognition”.
Now, according to Shafranik, in the ever-changing world of energy and the fall in world energy prices, we need to “take adequate measures to ensure the sustained development of the industry”. Yuri Shafranik I am sure that now a lot depends on what decisions will be taken in the near future at the state level — in the field of tax, investment and tariff policies. The most important thing is to keep the current amount of drilling and investment in new technologies of extraction and processing of energy resources. “We have high hopes for “the national oil and gas forum”, which will discuss the above issues at the highest level, with participation of profile Ministers and Deputy Prime Minister, representatives of Russian and foreign companies, experts and scientists”, — said the head of Union of oil and gas. “It is important that the project participants will have the opportunity not only to discuss these issues, but also to learn from industry-leading technology solutions at the exhibition “Neftegaz”, which will be held simultaneously with the forum” — summed up Shafranik.
Eugene Boguk also believes a very significant sites, such “National oil and gas forum” and the exhibition “Neftegaz”. “The event brings together the best of the best — the best professionals in various areas of activity, the best speakers, notes Boguk. — Event organizers who know the situation in the energy industry from the inside, since we communicate daily with representatives of companies in the oil and gas industries, has assembled one of the best programs in this year.”
Photo courtesy of the press service of Expocentre
“Gazprom automation”, in particular, takes part in the exhibition part of the event. “Our stand will be presented equipment and solutions, developed and manufactured in the framework of the program of import substitution”, — said the press Secretary of the company. According to him, this will be the equipment for automation and dispatching of engineering processes, Metrology, communications, Informatization and creation of the natural gas vehicle infrastructure, electricity and gas distribution.
That the forum and exhibition was extremely useful for the industry, agrees the General Director of the company “NTA-Prom” mark Goryachev. According to him, guests “will be able to find the best solutions in the market and evaluate the advantages of each of them.” Goryachev also notes that the oil and gas industry depends heavily on imports and the main goal now is to establish the production equipment without loss of quality. “Many foreign partners in cooperation with the Russian companies have progressed in this issue and will present their innovations at the forum and the exhibition,” he says. For example, “NTA-Prom” will be presented at the exhibition “oil and gas” products to solve problems of measurement of fuel consumption.
According to Sergei Ermish — General Director of the company “Transneft — Diascan”, participation in major international exhibitions of the industry gives companies the opportunity to present their unique developments and present services to potential clients.
