The Central Bank may be either a healer or a Punisher for the economy. Too much or not enough money, lack of credit, excessively heavy in relation to other currencies, the ruble artificially inflated percent – there are all sorts of ways to make the economy miserable?
What was for us the Bank of Russia? It’s a huge organization, live and work there 59 thousand people. Only in the Central office – more than 6 thousand people. The largest number of Central Bank of the world. The Federal reserve system (the fed), the center of financial power in the world – 17-18 thousand people At the European Central Bank – less than 3 thousand people.
The larger the state the greater the heat stepped on the regulatory machine. Sometimes it seems that it is administrative war with the banks. 2013, the Bank of Russia issued 331 regulatory act в2015 G. – 635. The growth of 1.9 times over two years. In the banking sector there are more than 5,000 acts of Bank of Russia. The pressure of rules, regulations, reporting, oversight is 2-3 times more than abroad.
The easier banks to die. Their network is declining at a rate of 10-15% per year, a network of non-Bank financial institutions – at a rate of 15-20%. During the three years of the campaign against the banks “for the purity of the ranks, their number in Russia has decreased by 27%, in Moscow – 20%, in St. Petersburg by 10%, but in the provinces, 38% more than a third. Chop wood, chips fly? Die primarily regional banks. And so dies another piece of local credit.
We believe that growth in Russia must begin from the regions? But it is impossible without credit. Two and a half years (октября2013 g) in more than 30 provinces, republics, territories physically reduced credit to the economy. To июню2016 in Leningrad and Kaliningrad regions, in Altai Krai – 9 -12%, in the Kostroma region – 15%, in the Pskov and Kirov regions, in Kalmykia – 19-21%, in the Amur, Sakhalin and Vologda regions – 26-29%, in the Chuvash Republic, the Jewish Autonomous region, Chukotka Autonomous area – 35%, in Perm territory – 40%. It is at par. And if to consider inflation at 30% accrued during this time, cuts will be much deeper. Almost the entire North Caucasus – in minus loans. And how to grow Russia from the provinces?
Some regions may have to declare areas national disaster. There is need of money, credits, investments. But the financial authorities carefully create some incredible concentration of loans and money in Moscow where they were rushing and getting worse be used. In 2009 – 2010, outside of Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Moscow region was placed 55% of loans to Russia. In октябре2013 g, 50.5 per cent. And finally в2016 G., a turning point is already less than half, at 49.6% of the loans given to the cities and villages of Russia, the rest – in the center.
Speed cash “desertification” of the regions is striking. In the early 2000s, monetary funds of banks of Moscow and Moscow region on accounts with the Bank of Russia amounted to 53-55% of the “total” for the country. Today, more than 90%!
Whether the monetary authorities of regional policy? But industry? You think someone is about to “push through” credit in the real sector, to warm him, to let him grow? Anyone care that in the manufacturing industries and extraction of raw materials – only one-quarter of the loan (26%), and trade, leasing, real estate transactions and “other activities” – almost half (48%)? Loans to small businesses? With октября2013, they decreased by 13% (adjusted for inflation – more). How can we achieve growth and modernization of the economy on the structure of the loan?
And how can you do that with such high rate of interest? The Bank of Russia in the night from 15 to 16 декабря2014 the city raised its key interest rate to 17%. The answer was “black Tuesday” – panic on the financial market, the collapse of the ruble and capital flight. From this point the whole dialogue of the society with the Bank of Russia began unceasing pleas to reduce the percentage that is killing the real sector. В2015, interest on loans to the economy, according to official statistics, reached 20%, в2016 g. – 15-16%. Interest on loans to individuals reached в2015 almost to 30%, в2016 – up to 25%. To those who say that the real percentage is lower because of high inflation, should offer to take a loan at 15-20%, and then try to give it away. 7,5 million can be attributed to bad borrowers – those who are 3 months and more to pay the debts.
The Russian economy fell in the “external trap” technological sanctions cyclically strong dollar and the associated low commodity prices. Small financial system is not adequate to the size of the economy, the low level of financial development. Even in 2013, when Russia’s share in world GDP was 2.8%, and its share in global financial assets was below 1%. Today it is lower in 1,5-2 times. It would be logical for this “external trap” to oppose the freedom of entrepreneurship, financial development, to subordinate every instrument of economic policy growth and modernization. All – for growth. Strong response to crisis strong external challenges.
But we in the “outer trap” said just the opposite – an “internal trap”. Excessively high interest rates, although the crisis reduced (“to live”), heavy taxes (when they do not grow), the crushing of the credit and the money supply to escape into the currency and out of the country (Siberian cold), endless conversations about the lack of funds, curtailment, raising the retirement age. Restraining the economy. The compression policy is the expansion of the economy, cuts in a shrinking pie for the sake of stability, which in this logic never achieve.
The great financial freeze 2014-16 will be presented. sure to go down in economic history of Russia. Monetization (money supply/GDP), saturation of loans (Loans/GDP), we rank 69th in the world (2014). The whole money part of our lives instead of freezing to grow, as do all economies, helping them out of crisis.
What to do? Everyone understands that the Bank of Russia – one is a warrior, the economy needs systemic treatment. Everyone knows that one of money, credit, interest rate, monetary policy is not a panacea. But at least say that the eternal pressure of the financial sector in order to fight inflation will not allow economic growth unless the Bank of Russia is not? To sit together with the government and try to agree on how to stimulate the growth and upgrading through Finance – this can be done? To think together about what, if in 25 years we have not coped with inflation and interest, it is necessary to change the ideology – it is at least possible to do?
Or we leave all to the will of financial history, which itself retroactively see all the failures will just wait for a new systemic crisis like in 1998?
