The main question asked by observers for the Ukrainian crisis lies in one word “Why?” That’s why they did it? To answer this question is easy if you take it for granted that the decision about the arrival of a group of saboteurs to Crimea was not in Kiev, and the interests of Ukraine and the Kiev regime in General, have not been taken into account. On this provocation, you can see greasy fingerprints supporters of Hillary Clinton, which found in large quantities in the American intelligence services and the diplomatic corps. They have a very recognizable handwriting. The goal is clear: to ensure that did not happen in 2014 – a full-fledged war, which will implement one of the main goals of American politics – completely and finally cut off Europe from Russia to replace EU dear American liquefied natural gas and to be able to strike Russian economy due to the oil embargo and the possible disconnection from SWIFT, turning Russia into a kind of great Iran.
No wonder I noted a recognizable style of our overseas opponents, who are now well, very much need a good real war in Europe. They have already made a similar attempt, using as a tool a Turkish fighter jet. I failed. But the Americans are famous for their love to use favorite methods to infinity, regardless of the outcome. Recently Putin completely outplayed the Americans in the Syrian and Turkish crisis, and the Turkish history of the transformation of Erdogan out the enemy in a forced ally of Russia looks particularly offensive to Americans. Their emotions are understandable. So they decided to hit where they had big chances of success. But this time, they have little that happened and for this we have to thank our heroes in the special forces and other security agencies.
The Russian authorities had three days to think about the situation and make a decision. (You’ve noticed that this topic is in the information field and actively emerged only three days after the incident?) The incident could have been easy to hush up and not to make public, but the government decided to do otherwise and you can be absolutely sure that all the consequences of this step and the next moves were well calculated.
The example of Turkey shows that Vladimir Putin is a true master of asymmetric and very effective pressure. It is clear that Ukraine will have to push, but push gently and ingeniously. Yes, Ukraine is not Turkey, but compared to Turkey, Ukraine has only one advantage – we can’t turn off the gas, as long as we need their pipe to continue our shipments to Europe, but the downsides of Ukraine much more.
To begin with, that even now to Ukraine’s economic ties with Russia much more important than they have ever been to Turkey. Turkey is still focused more on European and Asian markets and still the Russian measures the economic impact was very painful. Ukraine is in a similar situation will be more painful. The Turkish economy is more stable than Ukraine’s economy, which has been plunged into crisis and to get out of it. So points for the pain of impact on the Kiev regime is more than enough.
You need to consider another important thing that many people know, but almost no one says: one of the ways of punishment and pressure on Erdogan had the support of the Turkish Kurds, which has created a huge headache for the Turkish authorities. If Erdogan made a sharp geopolitical turn, the situation could end with the emergence on the world map independent, albeit not recognized by the international community, Kurdistan. Someone can say that in Ukraine there are no Kurds. The Kurds do not, but the LC and the DNI is. Amid the freeze of the Normandy format, which actually has already said, a sharp increase in tacit support of the LC and the DNI suggests itself, and can lead to rather sad consequences for the Kiev regime. In place of the Ukrainian politicians, I would be very worried because of such possible developments. There is a suspicion that the Kiev regime will be beaten. Quietly, without fanfare and emotion, but effective. Poroshenko has a reason to be jealous of Erdogan. The Turkish leader had the opportunity to apologize and correct that he is now trying to do. But Poroshenko this is not possible, but this is solely his problem.
