Image copyrightGETTY IMAGESImage captionСаммит “big twenty” in Antalya in November, 2015, nine days before Turkey shot down a Russian su-24
On Tuesday St. Petersburg will host a meeting of presidents of Russia and Turkey Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This will be the first meeting between the two leaders since a sharp deterioration in bilateral relations in November 2015, when Turkey shot down a Russian military aircraft su-24.
- Erdogan hopes for a quick normalization of relations with Russia
- The Kremlin said that Erdogan apologized for the downed su-24
- Experts: Russian sanctions almost did not cause Turkey harm
On June 27 of this year, Erdogan Putin sent a message, expressed condolences in connection with death of the pilot.
Prior to the meeting in St. Petersburg Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave an interview to Russian state news Agency TASS, in which he called Putin his friend.
“It will be a historic visit, a new beginning. In talks with my friend Vladimir, I believe, will open a new page in bilateral relations. Our countries have a lot to do together”, – said the President of Turkey.
The Russian side was more restrained epithets. Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov told only about the important nature of the upcoming meeting.
What results can you expect from a meeting, Putin and Erdogan in St. Petersburg, Russian service Bi-bi-si talked to the experts.
Anna Glazova, head of Center for Asia and the Near East Russian Institute of strategic studies
Bi-bi-si: what is this meeting Putin and why this visit Erdogan?
Anna Glazova: After a seven-month break in relations of Russia and Turkey have a lot of issues that require discussion. Of course, the interests of Russia and Turkey at the meeting – different.
For the Turkish President, this visit is extremely important against the background of deteriorating relations with the European Union and the United States. Turkey sincerely wishes to repair relations with Russia at the same level and will do everything possible for that. Talking about it, and replica Erdogan, published on the eve of the visit.
Of course, Ankara suffered greatly from the economic point of view of the crisis in Russian-Turkish relations is about tourism, and about sanctions.
In addition, Turkey is now faced with a wave of terrorist acts. Probably, the meeting will discuss issues of combating terrorism.
As for Russia, Turkey as a major regional power is very important for us relations with that country playing for us and for them.
Talk about the situation in Syria. Russia would like Turkey has changed its attitude and began to cooperate.
In particular, we are talking about how to cover the part of the Syrian-Turkish border West of the Euphrates, through which recent years have been infiltrated by terrorists, supplied weapons, while Turkey did nothing to change.
One more thing – security in the black sea region and the Caucasus. The aggravation of the Karabakh conflict was possible, I believe, due to the worsening of relations. Because Russia and Turkey for many years acted as the guarantors of the fact that the conflict has remained frozen.
Bi-bi-si: Erdogan spoke of “friend Vladimir”. How is it measured?
A. G.: Note that the term “friend Vladimir” sounds Erdogan and the Russian side are more reserved in showing emotions.
I don’t think the presidents want to use each other. This crisis has shown that in politics there are no friends and enemies, politics should be based on a pragmatic relationship. And now both sides understand that.
Assurances of friendship can be left for skobkina Glazov
Will discuss a mutually beneficial moments. And assurances of friendship, you can leave out.
Erdogan even before the crisis with Russia for many years very skillfully used the contradictions between Russia and the West for their own purposes, tried to use.
Remember his statement that Turkey could become a member of the SCO, Turkey could join the community. Political rhetoric aimed at the West: don’t push us, otherwise we will converge with other countries.
Now Erdogan again spoke about the implementation of the “Turkish stream”. However, several years Turkey is delaying its implementation and tries not to allow to start construction works. Based on the fact that the West will react.
All this friendly rhetoric and sent Russia and the West. But pragmatism should prevail.
Therefore, for both countries still important to establish a relationship.
Bi-bi-si: Putin forgave Erdogan?
A. G.: Seven months, the Turkish side is pretending that he does not understand what Russia wants, and regrets not experienced. Russia, by introducing economic sanctions, has put forward its conditions for the normalization of relations.
This page in our relations is possible now, if not to forget, to erase. Conclusions should be drawn from such situations, and the conclusions of the Russian President made.
Murad Shishani, a columnist for the bi-Bi-si, a specialist on Syria and the Middle East
I was in Moscow last week and discussed the theme of Russian-Turkish relations with various experts.
I was under the impression that Russia wants to make a step towards Turkey. Both sides are looking to agree on Syria.
Representatives of the Russian political elite see that Assad’s army is starting to slip. Lately we don’t see progress on the ground.
But it is important to recall other major players, particularly USA. Their position, of course, will also be important and indirectly influence the course of negotiations.
I think the negotiations will be referred to the situation around Aleppo. But, I think, only from a humanitarian point of view – it will be about food supply, and corridors for refugees.
From a military point of view to agree on something between Turkey and Russia will be difficult. Countries have too different views on a number of issues.
Russia will raise the issue of the permeability of the Turkish-Syrian border. In fact, after the bombings at the airport in Istanbul this year, much has changed.
The Turks now are much more interested in tighter control of the border with Syria. Another issue is that this is not so simple.
Another issue which is likely to be discussed, is the Kurdish problem. Then Russia and Turkey in many respects the polar views and to find common ground will be difficult. Generally the parties will discuss many difficult topics. I think first and foremost the parties will resolve economic problems. The progress in this direction Moscow and Ankara are interested in the first place.
Alexander Sotnichenko, associate Professor, faculty of international relations, St. Petersburg state University
Bi-bi-si: what is this meeting Putin and why this visit Erdogan?
Alexander Sotnichenko: the Art of politics is the use of each other for their own purposes. Both Putin and Erdogan are trying to use each other for the prosperity of the state and strengthening personal power. But both countries are in a difficult situation, they in fact are in political isolation.
Russia since the Crimean war, and Turkey is relatively recent, a few months, she managed to quarrel with all its neighbors.
And with the EU and the U.S. Turkey has deteriorated relationship due to the problems of refugees because of the Armenian genocide, the Syrian problems and the Syrian Kurds.
Turkey needs new partners and new allies. The rupture of relations with Russia had a negative impact on the Turkish economy and politics. And the fact that Turkey is in a difficult relationship with the West, and that Russia is in a difficult relationship with the West, pushing for mutual contacts, to restore relations, but I do see a future in the political sense.
Erdogan needs to acknowledge that his Syrian policy has failed completely and brought Turkey nothing but trouble, including numerous acts of terrorism.
But the Russian position until the Turks put up not want. They still consider Assad an illegitimate ruler of Syria, and Turkey continues to invest in the rebels in the North of Syria, which in the last few days have made gains near Aleppo.
This is Pro-Turkish rebels, and this topic Erdogan uses as a bargaining chip during the conversation with Putin on the Syrian issue.
Bi-bi-si: Putin forgave Erdogan shot down in November 2015 the plane? And will it follow from this forgiveness, improving bilateral relations?
A. S.: If Putin is an experienced politician, it is not about forgiveness, but about mutual interests. If he thinks like a politician, you should see that Turkey is in a difficult position, in a complex relationship with the United States, that Russia is beneficial, and this more than ever need to use in order to draw Turkish politics to their advantage.
And all such incidents settled by apology and compensation. All now depends on the willingness of the two presidents to meet each other.
If we are talking about the economy, what matters now is “Turkish stream”, a visa-free regime. Something to discuss on Syria, an important issue for peace in the middle East. There is the problem of the construction of a nuclear power plant Akkuyu and the problem of tourism.
Tourism should be the decision on top. To fly charters.
Rengin Arslan, a columnist for the Turkish service Bi-bi-si
The main thing that will try to make the parties in those negotiations, is to solve economic issues. The focus will be on bilateral business projects. There is talk about a possible revival of the “South stream” gas pipeline project through Turkey.
As for Syria, the majority of Turkish experts agree that progress will not be achieved. The fact that on some issues the opinions of the leaders of Russia and Turkey fundamentally disagree.
For example, the Kurdish question. Turkey takes tough stance and demands the recognition of Kurdish terrorist groups. Russia on the other hand support Kurdish forces, as he considers them an effective measure of combating grouping “Islamic state” [is prohibited in Russia]. To persuade Putin to Erdogan will be very difficult to prepare strong arguments.
But while the fact of the beginning of negotiations is no less important than their result.
