Michael Dittmar Institute of particle physics ETH Zurich predicted stock dynamics and production of oil in different regions of the world in the period up to 2050. Physics assessment indicated a decline in future oil production in Russia. Devoted to the research Preprint is the author published on the website arXiv.org.
The author’s article was the first part of the cycle of works devoted to the study of production, stocks and consumption of oil. In the first part the scientist spoke about his Outlook on the mining and oil reserves. In the second part of the study (not yet published) Dittmar plans to assess the dynamics of oil consumption in various regions.
The standard approach, according to which the prediction rate of extraction and consumption of oil, based on estimates of the prospects for economic growth, which gave a higher oil production (we are talking about models built ten years ago and that proved the illegitimacy of today). Physicist to predict the rate of oil production used a different approach.
Dittmar noted that, despite global economic growth over the last decade, the growth rates are very different from one region to another. Meanwhile, almost everywhere regularity plateaus (no growth or decline in oil production) and achieve the same decline in production and a quantitative assessment of the subsequent year may be made on the basis of current data.
Using these findings, Dittmar has built the model, which predicted the pace of oil extraction in various regions, in particular Russia, which the author divided into two regions: the West and the far East. In his analysis Dittmar relied on the data provided by an independent Agency EIA (Energy Information Administration).
In 2014 the reserves of the West was 60 billion barrels. Oil production in the West in 2010 amounted to 9.4 million barrels per day in 2013 — 9.3 million barrels per day. In 2015 production compared with 2014 fell by 3 per cent. In 2014 the reserves of the Far East amounted to 20 billion barrels. Oil production in the West in 2010 amounted to 0.3 million barrels per day in 2013 — 0.7 million barrels per day. In 2015 production compared to 2014 increased by more than 10 percent.
This allowed the Dittmar predict that in 2020 the West will produce 7.5 million barrels of oil a day, and in 2030 to 4 million barrels a day. For the far East these numbers will be 1.6 and 1.4, respectively. In General, compared to 2015 year total Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan (the scientist United in one macro region of the former USSR) by 2050, will cut production by five times.
On average, Dittmar, every five years the daily average oil production will decline by three percent in all regions. Just before this process will start in Western Europe, Norway and Mexico. By 2050 oil production in these regions, according to physics, will practically cease.
