A referendum on joining South Ossetia to Russia has been postponed to next year. This statement was made by the government of the disputed Republic. The postponement will reduce tension around South Ossetia, as well as give more room for manoeuvre not only Russia, but also advancing to the East of NATO.
On the postponement of the referendum became known from the official statement, signed by the President of South Ossetia Leonid Tibilov and the speaker of the Parliament Anatoly Bibilov. “Guided by the long-term interests of South Ossetian people, make a statement about support of the decision of the political Council under the President of the Republic of South Ossetia on the feasibility of holding a referendum on joining the Republic of South Ossetia in the Russian Federation in 2017, after the election of the President of the Republic,” a statement quoted by RIA “Novosti”.
Previously, the government of the disputed Republic announced that a referendum should be held in 2016.
Alexei Chesnakov, Director of the close to the Kremlin of the political situation Center, explains the postponement of the referendum parallel political process in South Ossetia: the preparation for the presidential elections.
“The referendum in such a short time before the presidential election meaningful and technologically connects them into one big campaign. It is unlikely this will improve the social atmosphere in the Republic,” — said the expert “Газете.Ru”.
In addition, in this scenario, the referendum will have “excessive politicization” that Moscow today is not desirable, said Chesnakov.
South Ossetia, along with another region, Abkhazia, declared their independence after the military conflict with Georgia in 2008. A little later the independence of both breakaway States recognized Russia, which also participated in the fighting. Tbilisi considers its legitimate territory and Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Georgia does not believe
In Georgia still do not believe that Russia really ready to take South Ossetia in its composition. “From a geopolitical point of view do not understand why? says Shota Utiashvili, former head of information-analytical Department of the Georgian interior Ministry, who participated in the negotiations with the South Ossetian side during the presidency of Mikhail Saakashvili. — After the annexation of Crimea a repetition of the same scenario in South Ossetia can not cause a sharp destabilization in the region and the extremely negative international reaction. With her in the current situation, the Russian authorities are simply not ready to face.” In addition, according to the interlocutor “Газеты.Ru” the current state of relations between South Ossetia and Russia, Moscow is quite satisfied.
If the South Ossetian referendum did take place, in Georgia can occur belligerent calls from a limited range of political forces.
However, the country’s leadership today, the prevailing view is that the territorial conflict must be resolved with the maximum involvement of international institutions and intermediaries, he added “Газеты.Ru”.
The referendum in South Ossetia does not guarantee worst-case scenario, considers Vladimir Yevseyev, head of the Department of Eurasian integration and the development of the SCO of the Institute of CIS countries. “South Ossetia can Express their desires in whatever form, including through a referendum. However, this does not mean that Russia makes a step forward and take South Ossetia in its composition”, — says the expert.
In addition to South Ossetia elections are coming and in Georgia. The country will elect a Parliament in October 2016. “If the South Ossetian referendum will be held this year, it will be a very expensive gift for anti-Russian forces in Georgia”, — says Evseev.
Aleksei Chesnakov of the Center for political conjuncture to the question, whether Moscow is ready to take South Ossetia in the future, replied somewhat vague: “In Russia, as in South Ossetia, I hope that is not the speed, quality and integration processes will make them irreversible.”
Between the two sides, there are a number of treaties which firmly unite them into a single system as in the economic sphere, and in terms of security.
NATO waiting for
Talk about the referendum amplify the voltage before the NATO summit in Warsaw, which will take place in June. Tbilisi hopes that the event will become another step towards the country’s membership in NATO. However, as declared on 24 may, the NATO special representative for the South Caucasus and Central Asia James Appathurai, in Warsaw Georgia in the Alliance will not accept, although it will present new proposals for cooperation”.
As stated “Газете.Ru” a NATO spokesman, who requested anonymity, the statements of South Ossetia on the referendum will not affect the policy of the Alliance.
“NATO’s position in this regard remains clear and unchanged. Member countries of the Alliance fully supports the territorial unity of Georgia and its sovereignty within the borders recognized by the international community. NATO countries do not recognize the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent States, said the diplomat. — Therefore we call on Russia to fulfill its commitments to Georgia and withdraw recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as well as from Abkhazia to withdraw its armed forces”.
“Georgia is just not able to get into NATO, as it is against the Charter of the organization. The Alliance may not include the state, where the territorial conflict, — told the “Газете.Ru” Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Center for comprehensive European and international studies higher school of Economics. — Georgia, as, incidentally, Ukraine, today offer so-called associate membership. But this format does not propagate on state action 5th article of the UN Charter gives the right to participate in decision-making and does not give countries a right of veto.
According to experts, the current negotiations, which leads the Alliance with Georgia is a diplomatic process in the center of which is not Tbilisi, and Moscow. “The discussion about the expansion of NATO in Georgia — it’s just another lever of pressure on Russia, another tool of deterrence,” — says Suslov.
“The Alliance is not interested in expanding in the Caucasus, as this region is highly unstable, and the presence here of NATO will dramatically increase the chances of escalation of direct conflict between the Alliance and Russia, — said the source “Газеты.Ru”. — That in the interests of neither party”.
