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In Sukhum smells of Mimosa and gunpowder

В Сухуме пахнет мимозой и порохом

Abkhaz opposition calls for a referendum on early presidential elections. It is a big mess in the “Russian underbelly”.

The initiative group of citizens of Abkhazia, composed of 46 people, has applied to the Central election Commission of the partially recognized Republic with the requirement to hold a referendum on the appointment of early presidential elections. Question is formulated so: “do you Consider necessary carrying out of early election of the President of Abkhazia?”.

This group is headed by Daur Tania. As he explained to journalists that a referendum is necessary in connection with the “critical political situation” and “in the developments”.

It is clear that the referendum did not arise in the narrow circle of the Abkhazian society — she now occupies the minds and emotions of great socio-political segment of Abkhazia, which for the relevant activities will have to score at least 10 thousand signatures of voters. And it’s real, because almost the entire opposition front Country of the soul, — and he, presumably, the number exceeds the Pro — government front- longs for the departure of President Raul Khajimba resigned. Note that since his election as head of Abkhazia was only a year and a half.

The opposition accuses President to “change the political course of the country, in flagrant disregard of the Constitution, ownership … to corruption and other crimes that undermine the foundations of the state”. But a group of veterans of the Patriotic war of people of Abkhazia, awarded the title “Hero of Abkhazia”, said that in 2014 Khajimba came to power in a coup, “has exacerbated the rift in society”.

“The discontent of the people the policy of government growing like a snowball. However, we must not allow the transformation of our country into a banana Republic and overthrow presidents every year and a half. Therefore, we believe the referendum is the most reasonable step to bringing the country out of crisis”, — said in a statement veterans. They also cautioned the authorities against attempts to prevent the referendum. “Otherwise, all responsibility for possible legal consequences will fall on the Republic’s leadership and personally to Raul Khajimba,” said “Heroes of Abkhazia”. However, among the veterans and those who did not believe a referendum is necessary.

Also in Abkhaz society believe that the authorities of the referendum will be desperate to resist. As reported by the member of initiative group on its holding, the Chairman of public organization “Women in politics” Irina Agrba, there is information, according to which “the heads of administrations of cities and villages received from above to impede the collection of signatures, and what’s scarier is they’re offering to collect signatures against the referendum. … On our way there will certainly be barriers, but we are not afraid of them. … We Express our interests, desires and aspirations of a significant part of our country.”

And this part is really impressive, and United — recently in the Republic of the Union of national unity, which brought together not only the so-called “old opposition”, but some political forces, which until recently had supported Khajimba and his team. In the new block, among others, is the most authoritative and experienced “amtsakhara” and the Communist party. Both have extensive experience of the party struggle. For a referendum are also the Foundation for socio-economic and political studies of the APRA, public organization “Karasai” and others.

According to the statement of “amtsakhara”, the party “reserves the right to hold the national Assembly in case the current leadership of the country, which is alien to respect the Basic law, will attempt to prevent the referendum”. In General, now in the air of Abkhazia, in addition to the Mimosa scent, smell civil confrontation is not foreign to her smell, periodically neytralizuya Moscow and appearing again.

But in Abkhazia there are opponents of the referendum. For example, the newly established public organization “Our home — Abkhazia” and the party Forum of national unity (FNUA). The latter considers that in the country there is nothing extraordinary in order to promote the idea of a Declaration of no confidence in the President.

The FNUA, however, I remember that he was one of the organizers of the coup d’état in may 2014, and now “has the audacity” to accuse the opposition of trying to destabilize the situation and to “undermine the strengthening of state institutions.”

Worried and some “ordinary citizens”: he says, again playing havoc in front of the tourist season, as it was in 2014, and “who now will go to us politicians fighting, and visa has introduced; it will be empty on our beaches”.

Power, of course, trying to “reason with” the opposition-leaning electorate. In particular, the press service of the President of Abkhazia issued a statement in which a very peculiar way tried to convince the people that the authorities are “innocent”. That’s what they say: “over Abkhazia for the past one and a half years develops complex financial, economic and geopolitical situation” and “Crisis phenomena in economy of the Russian Federation, as well as the consequences of inefficient economic policies of the past directly affected the quality and standard of living” of Abkhazia.

But, “despite these objective difficulties, we build closer and more productive relations with Russia that, in particular, has already enabled us to significantly increase wages and pensions in the Republic of Abkhazia. The recent talks between the presidents of Abkhazia and Russia has led to concrete results associated with the provision of further improving the quality of life of citizens of Abkhazia”.

Here a legitimate question arises: why should they not try to come off the neck of Russia and not to put your, to put it mildly, the failures, the crisis in the Russian economy? But most of the Abkhaz question so do not put, because they feel that what they are doing to Russia much more than Russia to make Abkhazia, as well as in the latest Russian military bases are deployed. That is, love to skate, love and sleigh to carry. But the sleigh becomes heavier and more maneuverable.

However, in the statement of the press service of the head of the Republic said that the main task for the President of Abkhazia is the “internal resources”. And also that “we must make every effort to develop its economy, strengthen the rule of law, to consummate the reforms and to ensure the qualitative growth of the level of life of our citizens even during the financial and economic crisis in the ruble zone”. And for this purpose “it is necessary to unite efforts of our people” and not “implementation questionable from a constitutional point of view, politicized promotions, objectively aimed at destabilizing the situation in the country”.

In the administration of the President of the Country of the soul are of the opinion that the opposition “deliberately refuses a civilized dialogue, making the choice in favor of confrontation and instability in the society”. Here also Express the belief that such “irresponsible policy will be appreciated” from the population of Abkhazia. As for the authorities, they promise to “fully ensure the stability and legality in the Republic of Abkhazia”.

There you have it. Now the question is, will the authorities to hold a referendum. On the one hand, it would be right to accept it, otherwise they will be accused of cowardice because they were not allowed to hold a referendum because they are afraid of its results and do not behave democratically. On the other hand, the popular vote really may not be in favor of the authorities, and then Khajimba, a long and painful way to the presidency, will remain outside of the power game and once again moved into opposition.

And third: the coups of Abkhazia is nothing new, and the accompanying civil strife. This means the following: the authority will give the nod to a referendum or will not give, no matter the opposition, if you’re dead, you still will be “finished” Khajimba, even if in the domestic political process in the Republic will intervene Russia, who is considered a protege of the current Abkhazian President, that removed from this post Alexander Ankvab. So the opposition is driven by additional interest — revanchist.

At the same time the authorities of Abkhazia have the option to distract the public from the referendum. For example, to gain time, Abkhazians can throw the idea of a transition to a parliamentary form of government, to offer to hold a referendum on the issue, which will be preceded by a long work on changing the Constitution and people’s Assembly. And the government can say — Yes please, we are not against referendum, but the money for him now, so bear with, dear fellow.

But, say, signatures are collected, a referendum has allocated money, and Khajimba won it. Then by all means start talking about the falsification of results, you connect all the power of the administrative resource and “Institute of intimidation”. And then will begin a large-scale civil confrontation. But it will happen and if Khajimba referendum will lose, as quietly and peacefully, as did his predecessor Alexander Ankvab, and without any referendum, but before the threat of a civil war and he leaves.

In General, Chinna democratic political processes in Abkhazia is impossible by definition, because they do not fit into the local mentality. Right on man: “And he, rebellious, asks for storms, as if in storms there is peace”.

And it’s a long time. Because the mentality of the people, the consciousness determines being. But this is “unforgettable” by Karl Marx. And now is the time to solve the problem of “basis” and “superstructure”, including but not limited to Sukhum, and Moscow, priletevshiy Abkhazia to its underbelly.

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