Prices for oil are decreasing second day in a row. A barrel of Brent oil dropped below $50.
The mood of traders was affected by several factors. Saudi Arabia for the first time since February of this year has lowered output prices for the U.S. and Asia. We are talking about deliveries in August. Recall that all the previous months, the country only increased prices.
With regard to Asia, there the most common is a mix of Arab Light, and August, she will be supplied for 40 cents cheaper.
The Asian market is key for the Saudis, and, apparently, the current situation does not suit them. Recall, they’ve not only lost the lead in this market, but fell back to third place: first place Russia, second, of Angola.
Incidentally, Russia has increased its oil supplies to China by nearly 50%.
There are objective reasons to return to the discounts. The fact that in the third quarter, the Asian market will also see a decline. At this time, many refineries spent on prevention, which will result in a decrease in purchases.
It is worth noting that in the past year, Saudi Arabia also in the summer started to lower prices and continued this policy until almost the end of the year.
There is another message. Reuters claims that the Saudis are about a third increased capacity in the field “shaybah” and in the beginning of the month there were additional volumes which were sold at a discount.
Bloomberg also conducted a study and said that in June the three countries of OPEC to increase production – Nigeria, Libya, and again, Saudi Arabia – 90, 40 and 70 thousand barrels per day, respectively.
Furthermore, it is known that Canada is almost completely restored the production after a fire at the oil Sands, so that the market can actually appear the excess supply, which will be accompanied by pressure on prices.
Recall also that, according to the Bank of Russia quotations of “black gold” in the third quarter will show a strong enough decline to $40 per barrel. The same opinion is shared by many other experts.
Negative dynamics in the oil market will definitely affect the Russian ruble. However, while we do not see any serious drop in oil prices nor the strong fluctuations of the ruble. Yesterday, for example, the ruble almost stood all day near to levels of closing of previous day.
