A new scheme of privatization of “Rosneft”, which the company itself buys its own shares from the state, will lead to a significant outflow of currency from the Russian banks and could trigger a dollar famine on the market.
To such conclusion analysts of Raiffeisenbank, analyzing the details of the transaction and accounts “Rosneft”.
The fact that Rosneft lacks the required amount in rubles – it keeps the money mostly in foreign currency (more than $ 20 billion at mid-year), and for payment transaction it will have to withdraw from the banking accounts.
The money banking system will lose irretrievably their conversion into rubles will pass through CBA, not through the foreign exchange market: the Bank of Russia will issue the required amount (about 700 billion rubles), and the dollars will take away in their reserves.
“Based on our estimates, a large part of the available funds Rosneft placed on accounts of local banks. Balances in the state banks accounted for at least 5.2 billion dollars, respectively, this volume will leave the market,” warns Raiffeisenbank.
For Russia it is a large sum: the total amount of foreign exchange reserves of the banking system (funds on correspondent accounts and deposits with non-resident banks) fell from the beginning of the year more than doubled and is only $ 23 billion.
“The current stock of currency from the banks is not enough to cover the outflow of funds of foreign banks for the period of the transition through the end of the quarter”, – the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Denis Poryvai: it was clearly seen late last week when interest rates on dollar loans on the Russian market soared several times, and there was a real crisis.
“In addition, in December have a large volume of payments of external private debt,” he said.
“Regardless of the currency in which funds will be transferred to Rosneft in the budget, this may cause a shortage of foreign exchange liquidity in the local market,” warns Raiffeisenbank.
To avoid it, if the currency conversion in rubles will pass through the exchange, however this will cause “short-term excessive appreciation of the ruble.” “Such a situation would not suit neither the Central Bank nor the Finance Ministry, so this option is not practically implement”.
The consequence of monetary hunger will be increase in interest rates on dollar loans and the sale of Eurobonds by Russian banks, warns RBI.
