According to experts of the Organization of countries — exporters of oil (OPEC), the price of black gold in 2016 will continue to grow, aided by a number of factors, such as the decline in production in some regions, as well as the weakening us dollar and strong demand for energy in major Asian countries. However, persist and negative trends — the excess of supply over demand and the slowdown in consumption. Domestic experts also expect growth, but diverge in their predictions about his durability and maximum performance.
April 13, OPEC published its latest monthly report, the authors noted the positive dynamics of the oil market in March 2016. They noted that in March, the OPEC reference basket price (average calculated on the basis of the price of oil different brands) increased by 20%. March was the best month of November 2015 for the futures market. Market speculators waiting for the price and buy oil for the future, setting new records.
Against this background, OPEC experts show cautious optimism. In their opinion, the positive trend is primarily due to the expectations of freezing the production, which is now being discussed by the largest players in the market. The final question must be decided on April 17, during the negotiations in the Qatari capital Doha and will reach not only members of OPEC, but also representatives of countries not members of the organization.
Price growth also contributes to the decline in the U.S. and some other regions (China and Colombia). There are problems with production in Nigeria and Iraq. Decreases the production of shale oil in the United States. Asia is showing good demand, there are leaders China, India and South Korea. Growth in oil prices also helps the weakening of the dollar.
However, the situation on the oil market is far from unambiguous. Remains the excess of supply over demand. Moreover, the growth rate of demand decline. If in 2015, the demand has grown on average by 1.54 million barrels a day, the forecast for 2016 — a total of 1.2 million barrels. The decline in economic activity in the U.S. and Europe results in lower transportation and therefore fuel costs.
Experts of the OPEC is also concerned about a slowdown in China, economic difficulties in Latin America. Finally, the role played by the climate — warm weather in the Northern hemisphere has a negative impact on fuel consumption.
For Russia, OPEC experts predict a slight decrease in the average rate of production to 10,83 million barrels a day. However, in March 2016, the production grew. Mainly due to the increase of production the company, “Bashneft”, “Tatneft” and “Gazprom”.
The President of the Union of oil Industrialists of Russia Gennady Shmal told “Izvestia” that the OPEC optimism is well founded.
By the end of the year, the oil price should be $50-60 per barrel, and then grow further because the fair price is about $80, — says the expert.— However, if the price will rise, again will be to produce shale oil. The world economy is not growing, and this is a negative factor, because the demand is not growing.
Commenting on the growth of production in the Russian Federation, Gennady Shmal noted that domestic oil industry is feeling OK.
— Russian company put into operation new fields, says oilman. — For example, “Bashneft” in recent years significantly increased its production. Lack of Finance can have an impact later in 2-4 years.
Some analysts are more cautious about the prospects of the oil market. Natalia Lebedeva, General Director of consulting company “Mirabel Groups”, in conversation with “Izvestia” suggested that the prices will grow only for a short period — until July.
— Then they start to fall, and a big part to play policy, — the expert believes. — Real freeze of production is not, its volume will continue to grow, which will lead to a further fall in prices. However, a large price increase unprofitable, because at $55-60 will begin to recover shale oil.
Regarding the growth of production in the Russian Federation Natalia Lebedeva noted that Russian companies are expanding to increase the share of export revenue.
— The dollar is quite high, this leads to profit growth, — said the analyst.
