Today, despite the election results, the oil remained in the range of the end of the previous week. 46-50 dollars depending on the brand. The fact is that Venezuela plays on the question about the freezing of production. Let’s look at why in fact no country of Custody is not beneficial to the increase in the price of “conventional” oil and why Saudi Arabia is not the enemy of Russia number one, and the state, consistently playing its role.
About the situation on the competitiveness of shale gas, I already wrote here. In General, the same circumstances and in the case of oil. Except for the fact that in the case of gas trying to squeeze out of Europe “Gazprom”, and in the case of oil – pressure comes from all OPEC countries. Therefore, the competition is more ambitious.
The main problem of the companies involved in the shale – often bankruptcy. Type of loans, but not cope with the market history repeats itself over and over again. And so as not to raise competitors, Russia, Saudi Arabia and their company help of such companies for a long time not to linger on the market.
Only problem is that slate miners unable to compete until such time as the price of conventional oil is kept right up to $ 40 per barrel. And only if it falls below that companies extracting shale become unprofitable (can’t give scored loans, etc.). Speaking of which, if you remember the infamous fed rate and the delay of its improvement: actively opening the company’s production slate will not be able to open actively, because loans will become more expensive. Therefore, we have to endure the financial glut for the development of the energy market.
It should be noted that according to estimates one-year-old it is expected that the breakeven point of us companies in 2019-2020 will fluctuate at the level of $ 80. Therefore, it is likely that we can expect a gradual increase in the price of a barrel of “conventional” oil.
And yet, no one knows how to behave like another member of OPEC. For example, nobody can guarantee that tomorrow Russia will completely importozameshchenija, and thanks to the weak ruble will begin on the Chinese analogy to break records in exports of non-oil goods. Take it, and freeze the oil. And will not depend on its price. What would it be? The panic in the markets and a General increase in fuel prices.
However, while none of the countries-exporters of resources is not prepared to freeze the prey. Therefore, as Putin said, the course is a 45 – quite comfortable for our budget.
What can you say about the Russian perspective of shale oil?
In our country there are huge supplies of it. Only here, first, the gap of the platform – the murder of the soil, and second, Deposit bystrookupaemyh third (Hello, Russia!) we have no equipment for this kind of production.
Prior to the sanctions, we have, as it is not sad, was the exploration of places of extraction of shale oil. Don’t know if I wanted to produce it, or was it a way to play on the price of American oil shale. But after the imposition of sanctions all projects were wrapped up because of the inability to import technology and engineering (that’s the answer to why the sanctions will be retained for a long time, and the Crimea has absolutely nothing to do with it – it is only the official reason, by and large – all anyway).
